At this critical juncture of escalating conflict in the Middle East, Iran has adopted a unique strategy: not relying on absolute military superiority, but rather engaging in a protracted confrontation with the United States and Israel through a brutal war of attrition. Tehran's intentions are clear: to use drones and missiles to exert continuous pressure, cut off key global energy routes, and severely damage international markets, thereby forcing Washington to back down first.

Despite suffering joint US-Israeli airstrikes and the loss of several high-ranking leaders, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has maintained firm control of the battlefield and played a central role in the Supreme Leader's succession. This dynamic not only tests the resilience of the Iranian regime but will also determine the direction of global energy security and the geopolitical landscape. The following analysis examines this from multiple perspectives, including Iran's strategic logic, the role of the Revolutionary Guard, internal stability, and the endurance race between the two sides.

Iran's core strategy of "endurance war"

The core of Iran's current strategy lies in "outlasting its adversaries." Tehran is not seeking a quick victory, but rather to exert continuous pressure on the US and its allies through low-cost, high-frequency drone and missile attacks. Simultaneously, Iran is expanding its offensive reach into the Gulf region, from Qatar to Saudi Arabia, prioritizing energy hubs with the aim of inflicting maximum economic damage. This not only increases the costs on neighboring countries, Europe, and the US, but also tests Washington's political will.

By cutting off key passages such as the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is attempting to transform the conflict into a global economic crisis, thereby forcing its adversaries to make concessions under both political and economic pressure.

Fawaz Gerges, a scholar at the London School of Economics, noted: "For them, this is a battle for survival, a war of all-out effort." He added that Iran believes its own survival is in grave danger and is willing to risk mutual destruction.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and an expert on Iranian politics, said: "They are like wounded beasts; being wounded makes them even more dangerous."

This total war mentality drives Iran to expand its front lines, turning defense into proactive offense, and exchanging economic costs for strategic space.

The Revolutionary Guard firmly controls the situation and plays the role of "kingmaker".

Despite the losses suffered by Iran's top leadership in the joint US-Israeli strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as the ultimate protector of the Islamic Republic, firmly maintained its dominance in battlefield operations. The organization executed pre-planned contingency plans, determining strategic direction and specific targets. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the initial wave of attacks, the IRGC swiftly installed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader, a process that further solidified the IRGC's position as a "kingmaker."

The balance of power has shifted significantly. Although the Supreme Leader holds power in name only, Iran's future and even the authority of the clergy now depend heavily on whether the Revolutionary Guard can withstand the US-Israeli offensive.

The Revolutionary Guard's influence has penetrated into everyday life; for example, at ports, goods that previously had to wait for weeks can now clear customs instantly, with paperwork completed later. Officials say this is a wartime economic preparedness measure designed to ensure supply chains remain operational under extreme pressure, while simultaneously strengthening the Revolutionary Guard's overall control over the country.

Short-term support for internal stability and national unity

There have been no signs of large-scale protests, elite defections, or systemic divisions within Iran so far. According to observers and contacts within Iran, the recent attacks have instead sparked a wave of national unity.

"The people don't want to see Iran disintegrate," said an insider in Tehran. He added that this sentiment might buy the leadership time. "I don't know if this regime can last long, but it won't collapse in the next few weeks at least."
Mohannad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, points out that the key unknown is how long the Revolutionary Guard's missile offensive can be sustained. The US claims to have destroyed a large portion of Iran's weapons stockpile, but regional sources say Tehran may still retain more than half of its pre-war inventory, enough to sustain weeks of fighting.

The final showdown between the US and Israel in a contest of stances and endurance.

US President Donald Trump told Republican lawmakers on Monday that the war would continue until Iran is "completely and decisively defeated," but predicted the conflict would not last long. Trump emphasized that once the US ends its military action against Iran, Tehran will be unable to pose a military threat to the US, Israel, or US allies for a considerable period of time.

Sources within Iran revealed that Tehran anticipated a potential conflict with the United States and Israel even before the start of the war, and therefore the Revolutionary Guard had deployed a layered strategy involving multiple military branches and proxy networks. Now, with virtually no way out, Iran is proceeding according to plan, attempting to transform the conflict into a protracted war of attrition, using political and economic pressure to wear down its adversaries.

“The key question is, in this all-out war, who blinks first, Trump or the Iranian leader?” Fawaz Gerges said. He added that under such pressure, Trump might seek to back down by claiming to have killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, destroyed its nuclear missile capabilities, and key military infrastructure. But for Iran, the very survival of the regime is a victory; even with its strategic infrastructure severely damaged, Tehran could still claim to have withstood one of the most powerful military strikes in history, shaping “survival” into a victory.