Following the outbreak of conflict between the US and Israel in the Middle East and Iran, gasoline prices in the United States have surged, becoming one of the biggest political challenges facing the Trump administration. This military action, which began on February 28, quickly escalated into a regional crisis, exacerbating concerns about global energy supply disruptions and causing gasoline prices to rise by nearly 60 cents per gallon in just two weeks. Republicans, who had hoped to solidify their midterm election advantage through Trump's promises to lower the cost of living, are now finding themselves on the defensive due to soaring energy prices.

Democrats seized the opportunity to make "affordability" a core campaign issue, putting the Republican majority in Congress in jeopardy.



Polls show that even before the war broke out, American voters were already deeply dissatisfied with the high cost of living, and the surge in oil prices has further amplified the political risks.

Soaring oil prices quickly became a political pain point.

In his State of the Union address, President Trump boasted that lower gasoline prices had averted a "disaster" left by his predecessor. However, just two weeks later, the national average gasoline price had risen to $3.54 per gallon, about 19% higher than when the war began. Data from the American Automobile Association shows that this increase has made many voters directly feel the impact of the energy crisis.

Republican strategist Jacob Perry said that the oil price issue cannot be hidden. Other problems can be lied about, that they are fake news, but the huge oil price signs on every street corner proclaim how bad the situation is, reminding people every time they commute to work.

Polls show that even before the Iran war, American voters were deeply angered by the high cost of living and disappointed by Trump's failure to take further action. With the midterm elections approaching, the Republican Party's already slim congressional majority appears increasingly fragile.

Affordability becomes a key issue in the election campaign, with the Democratic Party launching a strong offensive.

The Democratic Party has pledged to place affordability at the heart of its campaign.

Democrats could win a majority by flipping just three Republican-held House seats, while the Senate presents a greater challenge, but the overall atmosphere is unfavorable to Republicans.

Some House Republicans attending a policy conference in Florida this week acknowledged that soaring gasoline prices are worrying voters. They cited Trump's claims that the increase will be temporary and that the government's efforts to increase domestic energy production will mitigate the impact.

Republican Ohio Representative Warren Davidson stated that rising gasoline prices are a concern in the midterm elections. Economic issues are always a key focus for voters. The president has done an excellent job on other economic matters; the final outcome remains to be seen.

Trump's election promises face a severe test

Trump won the 2024 election primarily on his promises to curb inflation and lower energy prices and the cost of living. However, rising gasoline prices are particularly detrimental to a president whose campaign revolved around these promises. The White House has expressed concern about the issue, and Trump plans to consider several measures to curb oil prices, including potentially using the strategic petroleum reserve, restricting U.S. exports, and exempting some federal taxes.

On Monday evening, Trump said the U.S. would waive some oil-related sanctions, but did not provide details.

Trump's response to soaring oil prices has failed to alleviate public anxiety. In an interview last week, he said he was "not worried" about oil prices and predicted they would fall after the conflict with Iran ended, adding, "Let the oil prices go up." Over the weekend on social media, he reiterated that "short-term oil prices" are a "negligible price" paid for global security.

The reasons for the war have been repeatedly changed, and public trust has declined.

Trump's constantly shifting rationale for war against Iran makes it increasingly difficult for him to convince Americans that the economic damage would be worthwhile. Government officials have yet to provide evidence that Iran poses an imminent threat, while Trump previously insisted that last year's U.S. airstrikes on Iran had "completely destroyed" Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Republican strategist John Feehery said, "I don't think people really care that much about Iran; I think they care about oil prices. Any president who spends most of his time discussing international issues rather than people's livelihoods is likely to alienate voters. All I can say is that this war should end as soon as possible."

Overall , the surge in oil prices triggered by the conflict with Iran has evolved from an energy issue into the biggest political threat to the Trump administration and the Republican Party in the midterm elections. The persistently high gasoline prices not only erode public trust in Trump's economic promises but also give the Democrats the opportunity to turn "affordability" into a campaign weapon.

If the conflict cannot be resolved quickly and oil prices fail to fall within the next nine months, the Republican majority in Congress will face a severe test. While the White House is considering various intervention measures, experts point out that in the context of a highly interconnected global energy market, domestic policies alone are unlikely to reverse external shocks.

The clash between voter sentiment and economic reality will profoundly influence the outcome of the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, and deserves continued attention.