Rumors of an attack on Larijani: Iran may be entering a more difficult phase to predict.
2026-03-17 20:12:17
On Tuesday (March 17, 2026), Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz solemnly announced in public that Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, had been killed in an Israeli airstrike that had just occurred the previous night.
To date, this claim has neither received official confirmation from Iranian authorities nor has it been supported by conclusive evidence from independent third-party sources. The entire incident remains in a highly uncertain and speculative gray area.
If such a high-profile coordinator were to truly "step down" from the core of Iranian power, would there be a substantial shift in Iran's overall policy logic? How would the international community, especially financial markets, interpret and respond to this potential change?
From this longer-term perspective, if Larijani really "leaves the stage," it may not necessarily mean that Iran's foreign policy will immediately undergo a 180-degree turn, but it is very likely that the previously relatively controllable and well-regulated operating mechanism will begin to become less predictable and controllable.
Larijani: A unique role of "controlling the rhythm"
In Iran's complex power structure, Ali Larijani has never been a simple "hardliner" or "moderate." His political career spans multiple key areas, including the security intelligence system, the forefront of nuclear negotiations, and parliamentary legislation. From before and after the Iran nuclear deal negotiations, he has always been at the intersection of the core decision-making circles.
This unique resume makes him more like a "pivotal figure" connecting different power blocs than a spokesperson for a single faction. On the foreign front, he sends signals through formal diplomatic channels, informal behind-the-scenes communications, and even the media, allowing the international community to roughly understand where Iran's red lines and bottom lines lie, thus avoiding miscalculations and escalation. On the domestic front, he plays a delicate "lubricant" role between hardline conservatives, security agencies, and the government administration.
This allows Iran's policies to maintain a tough external stance without spiraling out of control or recklessly advancing during implementation. In other words, Larijani's true value lies not in his personal extreme stance, but in his ability to help the entire system "control the pace."
He is like a seasoned orchestra conductor, able to maintain tension between different sections without completely going out of tune even under high-pressure and conflicting conditions. This ability is especially valuable against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Middle East and increasing external pressure.
Once this position becomes vacant, the impact may not be immediately reflected in whether the policy is "harder" or "softer," but rather the entire decision-making process itself will begin to show signs of instability or even fragmentation.
The next few days: an important "observation window"
Looking at the publicly available information from March 15th to 17th, there were indeed some noteworthy subtle adjustments in Iran's external statements. Before the rumors of Larijani's attack surfaced, his public statements were relatively consistent and highly unified, with a clear main theme emerging—a strong response while leaving room for strategic maneuvering.
Following the news, Iranian state media largely relayed the information, and the top decision-making body has yet to formulate a new, unified external statement. For example, while the overall stance of Mojtaba Khamenei and the newly appointed Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's public statements has not fundamentally changed, the pace, focus, and urgency of their remarks appear somewhat different from the past.
This level of change is still difficult to draw any substantial conclusions about. In a highly conflict-ridden environment, information dissemination itself is affected by factors such as security considerations, internal coordination cycles, and even deliberate information control. Short-term dispersion of expressions may be due to technical or procedural reasons, or it may be a strategic arrangement intentionally made by high-level personnel to avoid prematurely revealing their hand during uncertain times.
A more prudent and rational approach is to treat the next few days as a crucial "observation window." If Iranian officials indicate a swift return to a unified and coherent framework, it suggests that the decision-making mechanism is functioning normally and internal coordination has not been fundamentally impacted. Conversely, if this fragmentation persists or even intensifies, it truly warrants heightened vigilance and a reassessment of the uncertainty surrounding Iran's policy direction.
The market began trading based on the logic of "uncertainty".
In contrast to the cautious and restrained reaction at the political analysis level, the financial markets reacted much more directly and swiftly. Following the news, international oil prices immediately surged: Brent crude futures briefly approached a high of $106 per barrel, and WTI crude quickly climbed to $96 per barrel.
Although prices subsequently declined due to profit-taking and other factors, overall prices remain significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. It's worth noting that this round of oil price increases is not entirely based on the traditional supply-side logic of an impending disruption of Iranian oil supplies. More accurately, the market is trading on something deeper—whether the future situation will become even more difficult to predict.
In other words, investors' focus is quietly shifting from "whether the supply will really be cut off" to "whether Iran's policy decision-making system can remain stable."
This shift is very clear at the trading level: some macro hedge funds and institutional investors have begun to raise their long-term central oil price expectations, clearly reflecting a higher geopolitical risk premium; at the same time, short-term speculative funds are focusing more on tail risk scenarios, such as the spillover of conflict leading to prolonged shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, chain reactions among regional allies, and even broader disruptions to the energy supply chain.
Two possible policy fork paths coexisting
If we assume for the moment that Larijani has indeed stepped down from his core position, then Iran's future policy direction is more likely to diverge rather than take a single, definite path. This is precisely where the current situation is most complex and tests the outside world's judgment the most.
The first possible path is that, due to a decline in core coordination capabilities, power will concentrate in the hands of a single, perhaps more assertive, party, leading to a faster pace of decision-making. This could artificially prolong regional tensions and increase the risk of conflict spillover. Under this path, the market will face longer-term and more structural risk pricing pressures.
The second possible path is the complete opposite: precisely because of the lack of a key figure capable of handling complex multi-party coordination, decision-makers will tend to proactively reduce the complexity of decision-making, avoiding a complete loss of control through a de-escalating stance, indirect communication channels, or even strategic restraint. Under this path, while short-term uncertainty remains, medium- to long-term risks may actually be mitigated.
These two paths have completely different implications for oil prices, exchange rates, regional assets, and even global supply chains. Therefore, the real key issue now is not "which path will definitely happen," but whether Iran's long-established decision-making system is quietly sliding from a state of "still being able to coordinate effectively" to a new stage of "becoming increasingly unpredictable."
Conclusion: A process full of variables
With information still incomplete and the truth yet to emerge, the rumors of Larijani's attack seem more like a sudden "trigger" than any final conclusion. It reminds us that the complexity of the Middle East situation far exceeds what can be summarized by a single event.
The next two to three days will be a crucial observation period: Can Iran quickly restore a stable, unified, and consistent external discourse? Will a new coordination mechanism emerge at the highest levels to fill any potential gaps? These direct signals will be more valuable than any speculation.
At 20:10 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at $96.03 per barrel, up 2.71%.
To date, this claim has neither received official confirmation from Iranian authorities nor has it been supported by conclusive evidence from independent third-party sources. The entire incident remains in a highly uncertain and speculative gray area.
If such a high-profile coordinator were to truly "step down" from the core of Iranian power, would there be a substantial shift in Iran's overall policy logic? How would the international community, especially financial markets, interpret and respond to this potential change?
From this longer-term perspective, if Larijani really "leaves the stage," it may not necessarily mean that Iran's foreign policy will immediately undergo a 180-degree turn, but it is very likely that the previously relatively controllable and well-regulated operating mechanism will begin to become less predictable and controllable.
Larijani: A unique role of "controlling the rhythm"
In Iran's complex power structure, Ali Larijani has never been a simple "hardliner" or "moderate." His political career spans multiple key areas, including the security intelligence system, the forefront of nuclear negotiations, and parliamentary legislation. From before and after the Iran nuclear deal negotiations, he has always been at the intersection of the core decision-making circles.
This unique resume makes him more like a "pivotal figure" connecting different power blocs than a spokesperson for a single faction. On the foreign front, he sends signals through formal diplomatic channels, informal behind-the-scenes communications, and even the media, allowing the international community to roughly understand where Iran's red lines and bottom lines lie, thus avoiding miscalculations and escalation. On the domestic front, he plays a delicate "lubricant" role between hardline conservatives, security agencies, and the government administration.
This allows Iran's policies to maintain a tough external stance without spiraling out of control or recklessly advancing during implementation. In other words, Larijani's true value lies not in his personal extreme stance, but in his ability to help the entire system "control the pace."
He is like a seasoned orchestra conductor, able to maintain tension between different sections without completely going out of tune even under high-pressure and conflicting conditions. This ability is especially valuable against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Middle East and increasing external pressure.
Once this position becomes vacant, the impact may not be immediately reflected in whether the policy is "harder" or "softer," but rather the entire decision-making process itself will begin to show signs of instability or even fragmentation.
The next few days: an important "observation window"
Looking at the publicly available information from March 15th to 17th, there were indeed some noteworthy subtle adjustments in Iran's external statements. Before the rumors of Larijani's attack surfaced, his public statements were relatively consistent and highly unified, with a clear main theme emerging—a strong response while leaving room for strategic maneuvering.
Following the news, Iranian state media largely relayed the information, and the top decision-making body has yet to formulate a new, unified external statement. For example, while the overall stance of Mojtaba Khamenei and the newly appointed Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's public statements has not fundamentally changed, the pace, focus, and urgency of their remarks appear somewhat different from the past.
This level of change is still difficult to draw any substantial conclusions about. In a highly conflict-ridden environment, information dissemination itself is affected by factors such as security considerations, internal coordination cycles, and even deliberate information control. Short-term dispersion of expressions may be due to technical or procedural reasons, or it may be a strategic arrangement intentionally made by high-level personnel to avoid prematurely revealing their hand during uncertain times.
A more prudent and rational approach is to treat the next few days as a crucial "observation window." If Iranian officials indicate a swift return to a unified and coherent framework, it suggests that the decision-making mechanism is functioning normally and internal coordination has not been fundamentally impacted. Conversely, if this fragmentation persists or even intensifies, it truly warrants heightened vigilance and a reassessment of the uncertainty surrounding Iran's policy direction.
The market began trading based on the logic of "uncertainty".
In contrast to the cautious and restrained reaction at the political analysis level, the financial markets reacted much more directly and swiftly. Following the news, international oil prices immediately surged: Brent crude futures briefly approached a high of $106 per barrel, and WTI crude quickly climbed to $96 per barrel.
Although prices subsequently declined due to profit-taking and other factors, overall prices remain significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. It's worth noting that this round of oil price increases is not entirely based on the traditional supply-side logic of an impending disruption of Iranian oil supplies. More accurately, the market is trading on something deeper—whether the future situation will become even more difficult to predict.
In other words, investors' focus is quietly shifting from "whether the supply will really be cut off" to "whether Iran's policy decision-making system can remain stable."
This shift is very clear at the trading level: some macro hedge funds and institutional investors have begun to raise their long-term central oil price expectations, clearly reflecting a higher geopolitical risk premium; at the same time, short-term speculative funds are focusing more on tail risk scenarios, such as the spillover of conflict leading to prolonged shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, chain reactions among regional allies, and even broader disruptions to the energy supply chain.
Two possible policy fork paths coexisting
If we assume for the moment that Larijani has indeed stepped down from his core position, then Iran's future policy direction is more likely to diverge rather than take a single, definite path. This is precisely where the current situation is most complex and tests the outside world's judgment the most.
The first possible path is that, due to a decline in core coordination capabilities, power will concentrate in the hands of a single, perhaps more assertive, party, leading to a faster pace of decision-making. This could artificially prolong regional tensions and increase the risk of conflict spillover. Under this path, the market will face longer-term and more structural risk pricing pressures.
The second possible path is the complete opposite: precisely because of the lack of a key figure capable of handling complex multi-party coordination, decision-makers will tend to proactively reduce the complexity of decision-making, avoiding a complete loss of control through a de-escalating stance, indirect communication channels, or even strategic restraint. Under this path, while short-term uncertainty remains, medium- to long-term risks may actually be mitigated.
These two paths have completely different implications for oil prices, exchange rates, regional assets, and even global supply chains. Therefore, the real key issue now is not "which path will definitely happen," but whether Iran's long-established decision-making system is quietly sliding from a state of "still being able to coordinate effectively" to a new stage of "becoming increasingly unpredictable."
Conclusion: A process full of variables
With information still incomplete and the truth yet to emerge, the rumors of Larijani's attack seem more like a sudden "trigger" than any final conclusion. It reminds us that the complexity of the Middle East situation far exceeds what can be summarized by a single event.
The next two to three days will be a crucial observation period: Can Iran quickly restore a stable, unified, and consistent external discourse? Will a new coordination mechanism emerge at the highest levels to fill any potential gaps? These direct signals will be more valuable than any speculation.
At 20:10 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at $96.03 per barrel, up 2.71%.
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