Trump has reshaped the global energy, economic, and geopolitical landscape, and his influence has reached its zenith.
2026-03-23 14:20:07
Last Thursday (March 19), Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met with President Trump at the White House, where she not only displayed closeness on policy levels but also engaged in a physical embrace. When Trump greeted her, Takaichi proactively embraced him, and their intimate interaction drew attention.
When facing reporters in the Oval Office, Sanae Takaichi said, "Only you can achieve world peace."
Behind these effusive praises lies an important fact: Trump's personal influence during this term has far exceeded that of his first term, and he is unilaterally dominating the course of global events. His military and policy decisions are reshaping the economic landscape in real time, while also casting a heavy shadow over the economic outlook.
Trump's predecessors were unwilling to make the same choice he did on the Iran nuclear issue. President Obama, facing the risk of Iran developing nuclear weapons, opted for a multilateral agreement, which Trump scrapped during his first term. President Biden attempted to restart negotiations, maintaining a policy of simultaneous negotiations and sanctions even after the Iranian-backed Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
As Commander-in-Chief, Trump's decisions have effectively become a lever for manipulating global energy price fluctuations.
Iranian forces attacked cargo ships and targeted energy facilities in a neighboring country, bringing traffic to a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway normally handles 20% of the world's crude oil shipments.
According to AAA data, U.S. gasoline prices have risen by nearly $1 in the past month, an increase of 33%.
Further economic turmoil is brewing. The strait also carries fertilizer components, which are rapidly becoming scarce. A Michigan farmer told CNBC this week that U.S. agriculture has "entered uncharted territory."
Trump stated that he anticipated the rise in gasoline prices long before the war began and viewed it as a necessary price to deter further Iranian aggression, including the nuclear threat.
The White House stated that prices would fall sharply after hostilities ended. At the start of the war, Trump predicted it would last only a few days, later changing it to several weeks. Last Friday, he made it clear he had no intention of a ceasefire.
Futures market data shows that traders expect oil prices to remain above $80 a barrel until July 2027 (FactSet data).
This concern reflects that even with Trump's immense personal power, he may not be able to end the war quickly. Iran could threaten shipping in the Straits with inexpensive drones, small boats, and mines.
Completely eliminating the threat may require a ground invasion. Trump stated last Thursday that he was not considering ground troops, but the U.S. military is deploying additional personnel and ships to the region.
A bloody ground war would prolong the recovery of oil prices by weeks or even months, while potentially further damaging regional energy production facilities. Whether to proceed with such action largely depends on Trump. He and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are assessing whether the national security benefits of weakening Iran are worth the financial losses suffered by the American people.
In theory, Congress has a role in decisions such as war and tariffs.
Last Wednesday, the Senate voted against taking action to limit the president's war powers, despite Democratic push for the issue. Similar legislation limiting the president's tariff powers, while receiving slightly more support in Congress, has not yet become law. The Supreme Court overturned several presidential tariffs in February, but Trump immediately introduced new ones.
The Federal Reserve is responsible for controlling inflation and maintaining employment. The war with Iran and tariffs could both create the inflation the Fed aims to address. Trump's concentration of power is complicating the Fed's efforts.
On March 13, a federal court dismissed subpoenas issued by Justice Department prosecutors against Trump and his allies for accusing the Federal Reserve of misusing public funds in building renovation projects.
North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis said he would not move forward with Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, until the investigation is resolved. Current Chair Jerome Powell stated that he will remain in office in some form indefinitely as long as the investigation continues.
The court ruling regarding the subpoena could have been the catalyst for Powell's handover and Warsh's appointment, but the Justice Department decided to appeal. Trump stated last Thursday that he still believes the renovation project's cost overruns involved "criminal activity," seemingly supporting the appeal plan.
The White House claims the Justice Department's investigation is independent of Trump's judgment. However, the ongoing investigation places the president's conflict with the Federal Reserve at the center of markets, while other Trump policies have made the economic outlook more unpredictable than ever before.
To understand how the biggest policy decisions facing the United States will unfold, one must delve into Trump's mind. Presidents often exaggerate their impact on the economy, especially when it's booming. But this economy, for better or worse, owes a great deal to Trump. From the Japanese prime minister to countries around the world, none have been able to follow his lead.
The influence of the Trump era has reached its peak, and his personal decisions are profoundly reshaping the global energy, economic, and geopolitical landscape. The Japanese Prime Minister's enthusiastic embrace and praise are merely a vivid illustration of this reality: in a world dominated by uncertainty, Trump has become an unavoidable core variable.
When facing reporters in the Oval Office, Sanae Takaichi said, "Only you can achieve world peace."
Behind these effusive praises lies an important fact: Trump's personal influence during this term has far exceeded that of his first term, and he is unilaterally dominating the course of global events. His military and policy decisions are reshaping the economic landscape in real time, while also casting a heavy shadow over the economic outlook.
Trump's policy toward Iran is tough, a decision that no previous president dared to make.
Trump's predecessors were unwilling to make the same choice he did on the Iran nuclear issue. President Obama, facing the risk of Iran developing nuclear weapons, opted for a multilateral agreement, which Trump scrapped during his first term. President Biden attempted to restart negotiations, maintaining a policy of simultaneous negotiations and sanctions even after the Iranian-backed Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
As Commander-in-Chief, Trump's decisions have effectively become a lever for manipulating global energy price fluctuations.
Iranian forces attacked cargo ships and targeted energy facilities in a neighboring country, bringing traffic to a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway normally handles 20% of the world's crude oil shipments.
Energy prices have surged, with U.S. gasoline prices soaring 33%, and agriculture facing unknown risks.
According to AAA data, U.S. gasoline prices have risen by nearly $1 in the past month, an increase of 33%.
Further economic turmoil is brewing. The strait also carries fertilizer components, which are rapidly becoming scarce. A Michigan farmer told CNBC this week that U.S. agriculture has "entered uncharted territory."
Trump stated that he anticipated the rise in gasoline prices long before the war began and viewed it as a necessary price to deter further Iranian aggression, including the nuclear threat.
The White House stated that prices would fall sharply after hostilities ended. At the start of the war, Trump predicted it would last only a few days, later changing it to several weeks. Last Friday, he made it clear he had no intention of a ceasefire.
Futures market pricing: Oil prices will remain above $80 until July 2027.
Futures market data shows that traders expect oil prices to remain above $80 a barrel until July 2027 (FactSet data).
This concern reflects that even with Trump's immense personal power, he may not be able to end the war quickly. Iran could threaten shipping in the Straits with inexpensive drones, small boats, and mines.
Completely eliminating the threat may require a ground invasion. Trump stated last Thursday that he was not considering ground troops, but the U.S. military is deploying additional personnel and ships to the region.
A bloody ground war would prolong the recovery of oil prices by weeks or even months, while potentially further damaging regional energy production facilities. Whether to proceed with such action largely depends on Trump. He and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are assessing whether the national security benefits of weakening Iran are worth the financial losses suffered by the American people.
Congress can theoretically intervene, but in practice, it is difficult to restrain presidential power.
In theory, Congress has a role in decisions such as war and tariffs.
Last Wednesday, the Senate voted against taking action to limit the president's war powers, despite Democratic push for the issue. Similar legislation limiting the president's tariff powers, while receiving slightly more support in Congress, has not yet become law. The Supreme Court overturned several presidential tariffs in February, but Trump immediately introduced new ones.
The Federal Reserve is responsible for controlling inflation and maintaining employment. The war with Iran and tariffs could both create the inflation the Fed aims to address. Trump's concentration of power is complicating the Fed's efforts.
The selection of a new Fed chairman remains uncertain; Powell will remain in office indefinitely.
On March 13, a federal court dismissed subpoenas issued by Justice Department prosecutors against Trump and his allies for accusing the Federal Reserve of misusing public funds in building renovation projects.
North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis said he would not move forward with Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, until the investigation is resolved. Current Chair Jerome Powell stated that he will remain in office in some form indefinitely as long as the investigation continues.
The court ruling regarding the subpoena could have been the catalyst for Powell's handover and Warsh's appointment, but the Justice Department decided to appeal. Trump stated last Thursday that he still believes the renovation project's cost overruns involved "criminal activity," seemingly supporting the appeal plan.
The White House claims the Justice Department's investigation is independent of Trump's judgment. However, the ongoing investigation places the president's conflict with the Federal Reserve at the center of markets, while other Trump policies have made the economic outlook more unpredictable than ever before.
Trump's influence is unprecedented, forcing the entire world to "follow suit."
To understand how the biggest policy decisions facing the United States will unfold, one must delve into Trump's mind. Presidents often exaggerate their impact on the economy, especially when it's booming. But this economy, for better or worse, owes a great deal to Trump. From the Japanese prime minister to countries around the world, none have been able to follow his lead.
The influence of the Trump era has reached its peak, and his personal decisions are profoundly reshaping the global energy, economic, and geopolitical landscape. The Japanese Prime Minister's enthusiastic embrace and praise are merely a vivid illustration of this reality: in a world dominated by uncertainty, Trump has become an unavoidable core variable.
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