Geopolitical sentiment premiums have receded, and gold is maintaining a range-bound trading pattern, awaiting correction.
2026-03-27 15:13:52
Gold prices continued their rebound during the European session, briefly touching a high of around $4,465 , essentially recovering some of the previous day's losses. This rebound was mainly driven by a decline in the US dollar index. Market surveys indicate that the US postponed potential strikes against Middle Eastern energy facilities and extended the negotiation period. This statement eased market concerns about escalating conflict, thereby weakening demand for the safe-haven dollar and providing short-term support for gold.
However, from an overall perspective, the upward momentum for gold remains insufficient. Although geopolitical risks have not completely subsided, the market is more focused on their transmission effects on energy prices and inflation. With oil prices remaining high, inflation expectations have risen again, and market judgments on the policy paths of major central banks have changed significantly. Currently, it is widely expected that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will maintain a hawkish stance, and further interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
This shift in expectations directly pushed US Treasury yields to remain high, thus putting downward pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. In a high-interest-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, and funds tend to flow more towards yield-generating assets, making it difficult for gold prices to form a sustained upward trend.
Furthermore, the fluctuating news surrounding the situation in the Middle East has exacerbated market uncertainty. On the one hand, the US has signaled a de-escalation; on the other hand, relevant countries have denied progress in negotiations, while military deployments continue. While this uncertainty has provided some support for safe-haven demand, it has not translated into sustained buying, instead making market sentiment more cautious.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart for gold shows clear signs of weakening. The price previously broke below the key 100-day moving average , and this week's rebound was met with resistance near this level, confirming that it has become a significant resistance. Currently, the 100-day moving average is around $4630 , becoming a key level that bulls need to break through in the short term. From a trend structure perspective, the price has shifted from an upward trend to a slightly bearish, range-bound pattern, and the moving average system is beginning to flatten and trend slightly downward.
In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD continues to operate below the zero line, with the fast line below the slow line, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates. Although the RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone, it remains in the low range near 30, reflecting weak market demand, and the rebound is more of a corrective measure. If the price cannot hold above the key moving averages, the bearish structure is unlikely to change.
From the 4-hour chart, gold is showing a short-term rebound and correction pattern, but the upward momentum is clearly insufficient. The price stalled after touching above 4460, indicating strong selling pressure above. Although short-term moving averages show signs of turning downwards, they have not yet formed a valid bullish alignment. The MACD histogram briefly turned positive before quickly converging, indicating a lack of sustainability in the rebound; the RSI has risen to the neutral zone but has not entered the overbought/oversold zone, suggesting limited bullish momentum.
In terms of key technical levels, initial resistance is at $4630 , with further resistance at $4820 and the $5000 area; support is at $4380 , and a break below this level could lead to a further decline to the $4120 area. Overall, while there has been a short-term rebound, the structure remains bearish, and the risk of a pullback after a rally should be noted.
Editor's Summary:
The current gold market is in a typical phase of balancing between safe-haven support and interest rate suppression. While geopolitical tensions provide a floor for gold prices, inflation expectations and rising interest rates significantly limit its upside potential. From a technical perspective, gold has not yet escaped downward pressure, and any rebound is more of a temporary correction. In the short term, a weak and volatile pattern is expected, while the medium-term trend will depend on changes in interest rate expectations and the direction of the US dollar.
However, from an overall perspective, the upward momentum for gold remains insufficient. Although geopolitical risks have not completely subsided, the market is more focused on their transmission effects on energy prices and inflation. With oil prices remaining high, inflation expectations have risen again, and market judgments on the policy paths of major central banks have changed significantly. Currently, it is widely expected that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will maintain a hawkish stance, and further interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
This shift in expectations directly pushed US Treasury yields to remain high, thus putting downward pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. In a high-interest-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, and funds tend to flow more towards yield-generating assets, making it difficult for gold prices to form a sustained upward trend.
Furthermore, the fluctuating news surrounding the situation in the Middle East has exacerbated market uncertainty. On the one hand, the US has signaled a de-escalation; on the other hand, relevant countries have denied progress in negotiations, while military deployments continue. While this uncertainty has provided some support for safe-haven demand, it has not translated into sustained buying, instead making market sentiment more cautious.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart for gold shows clear signs of weakening. The price previously broke below the key 100-day moving average , and this week's rebound was met with resistance near this level, confirming that it has become a significant resistance. Currently, the 100-day moving average is around $4630 , becoming a key level that bulls need to break through in the short term. From a trend structure perspective, the price has shifted from an upward trend to a slightly bearish, range-bound pattern, and the moving average system is beginning to flatten and trend slightly downward.
In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD continues to operate below the zero line, with the fast line below the slow line, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates. Although the RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone, it remains in the low range near 30, reflecting weak market demand, and the rebound is more of a corrective measure. If the price cannot hold above the key moving averages, the bearish structure is unlikely to change.
From the 4-hour chart, gold is showing a short-term rebound and correction pattern, but the upward momentum is clearly insufficient. The price stalled after touching above 4460, indicating strong selling pressure above. Although short-term moving averages show signs of turning downwards, they have not yet formed a valid bullish alignment. The MACD histogram briefly turned positive before quickly converging, indicating a lack of sustainability in the rebound; the RSI has risen to the neutral zone but has not entered the overbought/oversold zone, suggesting limited bullish momentum.
In terms of key technical levels, initial resistance is at $4630 , with further resistance at $4820 and the $5000 area; support is at $4380 , and a break below this level could lead to a further decline to the $4120 area. Overall, while there has been a short-term rebound, the structure remains bearish, and the risk of a pullback after a rally should be noted.
Editor's Summary:
The current gold market is in a typical phase of balancing between safe-haven support and interest rate suppression. While geopolitical tensions provide a floor for gold prices, inflation expectations and rising interest rates significantly limit its upside potential. From a technical perspective, gold has not yet escaped downward pressure, and any rebound is more of a temporary correction. In the short term, a weak and volatile pattern is expected, while the medium-term trend will depend on changes in interest rate expectations and the direction of the US dollar.
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