Super Week is Coming: A Global Market Outlook Amid Geopolitical Conflicts and the First Post-War Non-Farm Payrolls Report
2026-03-27 18:58:49
Next week (March 30 - April 3), the first key employment data since the start of the US-Iran war, signals of a policy shift from the Bank of Japan, global inflation data, and statements from central banks in various countries will be released in quick succession.
From European CPI to Chinese PMI, from G7 energy policy wrangling to speeches by Federal Reserve officials, every event can amplify market volatility against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts.
The delayed release of some US data due to the government shutdown, coupled with the closure of many stock exchanges on Friday, will intensify the struggle between market liquidity and expectations. Investors need to plan ahead to cope with potential risks and opportunities.
On Monday (March 30), Germany released its March CPI and Europe released its March consumer confidence index. As important indicators of inflation and economic conditions in the Eurozone, the data will directly affect the European Central Bank's policy expectations.
One of the key highlights of the day was the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of the opinions of the deliberative committee members at its March monetary policy meeting. In mid-March, the Bank of Japan maintained the unsecured overnight call rate at 0.75% by a vote of 8 to 1. Currently, the market expects a rate hike in April to be more than 50%. This summary will reveal the details of the committee members' disagreements and the logic behind the rate hike.
On the same day, the United States released the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for March. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion and deliver a speech at Harvard University in Massachusetts. His remarks on the current economic resilience, inflationary pressures, and the path of monetary policy will provide key guidance for the market.
In addition, G7 finance ministers, energy ministers, and central bank governors held a meeting to focus on the release of strategic petroleum reserves. Against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict pushing up energy prices, the meeting's resolutions may directly affect the trend of the crude oil market.
On Tuesday (March 31), China released its official manufacturing PMI for March. As a core indicator reflecting the recovery of the domestic economy, it will provide a basis for forecasting global trade and commodity demand.
Japan simultaneously released its March Tokyo CPI year-on-year rate and February unemployment rate. As a leading indicator of inflation across Japan, the Tokyo CPI's performance will further strengthen or revise market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in April.
In the United States, the February JOLTs job openings data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, and the March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released.
On the same day, Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the New York Fed, delivered a speech that may further clarify the Fed's current policy stance.
On Wednesday (April 1), the U.S. EIA and API will release crude oil inventory data. Previously, an unexpected increase in inventories had pushed oil prices lower, and this data will continue to affect energy market supply and demand expectations.
China released its March SPGI (formerly Caixin) PMI for small businesses, which complements the official PMI and comprehensively reflects the structural characteristics of the domestic manufacturing recovery.
The US releases its ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by revised SPGI Manufacturing PMI figures from the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Eurozone. This collective feedback on global manufacturing activity will provide crucial information for assessing the pace of global economic recovery.
The US will release its March ADP employment figures (commonly known as the "mini-nonfarm payrolls") tonight. This is the first March employment data since the start of the war, and it is very noteworthy. At the same time, the US February retail sales data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, will also be released.
On that day, Musalaim, a 2028 FOMC voting member and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, delivered a speech on the US economy and monetary policy.
On Thursday (April 2), the US stock market will release Challenger layoff data for March, along with the number of initial and continuing jobless claims for this week. This series of employment-related data will provide leading clues for Friday's non-farm payroll data.
The Bank of Canada has released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. In mid-March, the bank kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. The minutes will reveal its assessment of economic inflation and its future policy adjustment inclinations.
In 2026, FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will deliver a speech to further elaborate on the Fed's internal policy thinking.
On Friday (April 3) , the week's final data release will take place, with the US releasing important data such as March non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage changes. This is the first non-farm payrolls report from the US Department of Labor since the start of the US-Iran conflict, and it is also a core indicator for measuring the resilience of the US economy, inflationary pressures, and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy amid geopolitical conflicts. You can follow the articles about non-farm payrolls data in the app in advance.
It should be noted that on that day, most US stock and European exchanges were closed, and trading in CME Group's precious metals and US crude oil futures contracts was suspended for the entire day; stock index futures contracts ended early at 21:15 Beijing time; and foreign exchange and US Treasury bond futures contracts ended early at 23:15 Beijing time.
In addition to core economic data, investors should also be wary of three potential risks: First, the continued escalation or spread of the US-Iran conflict could push up energy prices and global risk aversion, which would benefit safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar.
Second, if the Bank of Japan's opinion summary releases a clear signal of interest rate hikes, or if speeches by Federal Reserve officials convey a policy shift, it could trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in the yen, the dollar, and global asset prices.
Third, the combined effect of the release of US delay data and Friday's market closure led to tighter market liquidity, which may amplify market volatility. Fourth, the scale and pace of the G7's release of strategic oil reserves exceeded expectations, impacting crude oil and related industrial chain assets.
From European CPI to Chinese PMI, from G7 energy policy wrangling to speeches by Federal Reserve officials, every event can amplify market volatility against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts.
The delayed release of some US data due to the government shutdown, coupled with the closure of many stock exchanges on Friday, will intensify the struggle between market liquidity and expectations. Investors need to plan ahead to cope with potential risks and opportunities.
Inflation in Europe and Japan leads the way, with central bank statements and G7 negotiations taking center stage.
On Monday (March 30), Germany released its March CPI and Europe released its March consumer confidence index. As important indicators of inflation and economic conditions in the Eurozone, the data will directly affect the European Central Bank's policy expectations.
One of the key highlights of the day was the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of the opinions of the deliberative committee members at its March monetary policy meeting. In mid-March, the Bank of Japan maintained the unsecured overnight call rate at 0.75% by a vote of 8 to 1. Currently, the market expects a rate hike in April to be more than 50%. This summary will reveal the details of the committee members' disagreements and the logic behind the rate hike.
On the same day, the United States released the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for March. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion and deliver a speech at Harvard University in Massachusetts. His remarks on the current economic resilience, inflationary pressures, and the path of monetary policy will provide key guidance for the market.
In addition, G7 finance ministers, energy ministers, and central bank governors held a meeting to focus on the release of strategic petroleum reserves. Against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict pushing up energy prices, the meeting's resolutions may directly affect the trend of the crude oil market.
China and Japan work together to release delayed data; US releases supplementary data.
On Tuesday (March 31), China released its official manufacturing PMI for March. As a core indicator reflecting the recovery of the domestic economy, it will provide a basis for forecasting global trade and commodity demand.
Japan simultaneously released its March Tokyo CPI year-on-year rate and February unemployment rate. As a leading indicator of inflation across Japan, the Tokyo CPI's performance will further strengthen or revise market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in April.
In the United States, the February JOLTs job openings data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, and the March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released.
On the same day, Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the New York Fed, delivered a speech that may further clarify the Fed's current policy stance.
Crude oil inventory and employment data resonate, with the manufacturing PMI indicating economic resilience.
On Wednesday (April 1), the U.S. EIA and API will release crude oil inventory data. Previously, an unexpected increase in inventories had pushed oil prices lower, and this data will continue to affect energy market supply and demand expectations.
China released its March SPGI (formerly Caixin) PMI for small businesses, which complements the official PMI and comprehensively reflects the structural characteristics of the domestic manufacturing recovery.
The US releases its ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by revised SPGI Manufacturing PMI figures from the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Eurozone. This collective feedback on global manufacturing activity will provide crucial information for assessing the pace of global economic recovery.
The US will release its March ADP employment figures (commonly known as the "mini-nonfarm payrolls") tonight. This is the first March employment data since the start of the war, and it is very noteworthy. At the same time, the US February retail sales data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, will also be released.
On that day, Musalaim, a 2028 FOMC voting member and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, delivered a speech on the US economy and monetary policy.
Employment data preview, Bank of Canada minutes and Fed statement
On Thursday (April 2), the US stock market will release Challenger layoff data for March, along with the number of initial and continuing jobless claims for this week. This series of employment-related data will provide leading clues for Friday's non-farm payroll data.
The Bank of Canada has released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. In mid-March, the bank kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. The minutes will reveal its assessment of economic inflation and its future policy adjustment inclinations.
In 2026, FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will deliver a speech to further elaborate on the Fed's internal policy thinking.
Non-farm payrolls data is the final release, revealing the resilience of the wartime economy.
On Friday (April 3) , the week's final data release will take place, with the US releasing important data such as March non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage changes. This is the first non-farm payrolls report from the US Department of Labor since the start of the US-Iran conflict, and it is also a core indicator for measuring the resilience of the US economy, inflationary pressures, and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy amid geopolitical conflicts. You can follow the articles about non-farm payrolls data in the app in advance.
It should be noted that on that day, most US stock and European exchanges were closed, and trading in CME Group's precious metals and US crude oil futures contracts was suspended for the entire day; stock index futures contracts ended early at 21:15 Beijing time; and foreign exchange and US Treasury bond futures contracts ended early at 23:15 Beijing time.
Risk warning: Geopolitical and policy variables require close attention.
In addition to core economic data, investors should also be wary of three potential risks: First, the continued escalation or spread of the US-Iran conflict could push up energy prices and global risk aversion, which would benefit safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar.
Second, if the Bank of Japan's opinion summary releases a clear signal of interest rate hikes, or if speeches by Federal Reserve officials convey a policy shift, it could trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in the yen, the dollar, and global asset prices.
Third, the combined effect of the release of US delay data and Friday's market closure led to tighter market liquidity, which may amplify market volatility. Fourth, the scale and pace of the G7's release of strategic oil reserves exceeded expectations, impacting crude oil and related industrial chain assets.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
