According to the APP, Trump will deliver a national address at 9 PM ET tomorrow (9 AM Thursday Beijing time), providing a crucial update on the situation in Iran. This news quickly triggered strong market expectations of a possible easing of geopolitical tensions, causing a sharp drop in US crude oil futures. The price fell below the $100 mark, hitting a low of around $99.8 per barrel, a decline of over 5% from recent highs and a new multi-day low. The VIX volatility index also fell sharply by about 17.5% to 25.25, indicating a temporary recovery in market risk appetite.

According to the latest trading data, the NYMEX May crude oil contract is currently hovering around $100.1 per barrel, down about 1.2% from the previous trading day's close, with an intraday fluctuation of over $3. The market generally believes that if Trump's speech releases positive signals (such as a rapid end to the conflict or the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz), it will further weaken the safe-haven premium for crude oil, pushing prices to continue testing the $98-$100 support range. However, the geopolitical situation has not yet been officially confirmed, and Iran continues to maintain a hardline stance; therefore, the possibility of a reversal after the speech cannot be ruled out.

To clearly illustrate the comparison of current driving factors, the following table summarizes the differences in the impact of geopolitical easing expectations versus situational uncertainty on oil prices:

A deeper analysis reveals that this round of oil price plunge is essentially a classic example of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading behavior. The market pre-priced in the possibility of positive developments from Trump's speech, leading to a rapid outflow of safe-haven funds from the energy market. Simultaneously, the sharp decline in the VIX index reflects a slight easing of investor concerns about short-term uncertainty. However, as market participants generally fear, any unexpectedly hawkish statement before official confirmation could quickly reverse oil price trends. Therefore, before short-term volatility substantially decreases, oil prices will likely continue to fluctuate within a wide range of $95-$105, awaiting directional guidance after the speech is finalized.

Looking ahead, if Trump's speech confirms a de-escalation of the conflict and the resumption of shipping across the Strait of Hormuz, US crude oil is expected to further decline to the $95-98 range; conversely, if the speech releases hawkish signals or Iran responds strongly, oil prices will rebound quickly and return above $105. Investors need to closely monitor the immediate reaction to the speech, subsequent API and EIA inventory data, and on-the-ground developments in the Middle East, as these will be key indicators for judging the medium-term trend of oil prices. Overall, the market is currently at a sensitive window of geopolitical risk expectations and reality; caution in participating in high-volatility trading remains the primary principle.

Editor's Summary : Trump's upcoming national address has become the focus of the market. Pre-market trading in expectations of geopolitical easing has significantly suppressed US crude oil and pushed the VIX down. However, the risk of fluctuations before the situation is officially confirmed should not be ignored. Oil prices are expected to continue their short-term volatile pattern, while the medium- to long-term trend will depend on the content of the speech and the actual evolution of subsequent geopolitical events. Investors should maintain flexible positions to cope with uncertainty.