The US and Iran are locked in a standoff; the EU says high energy prices are a foregone conclusion.
2026-04-01 21:42:25
EU Energy and Housing Commissioner Dan Jorgensen issued a stern warning that even if the Middle East conflict were to cease immediately, international oil and gas prices would be unlikely to return to pre-war levels quickly.
This energy crisis, triggered by geopolitical conflict, will have an impact on global markets far beyond the short term, putting continuous pressure on the EU and the global economy.
In terms of news, Trump claimed that the Iranian president had requested a ceasefire, adding that he would consider the request when the Strait of Hormuz was "open, free and unobstructed." However, shortly afterward, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was "firmly in its hands" and that it "would not be opened to the enemy of this country because of the absurd performance of the US president," indicating that the war was indeed at a stalemate.
Jorgensen revealed key data at an informal meeting of EU energy ministers: just one month after the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, EU natural gas prices have soared by about 70%, and crude oil prices have also risen by 60%.
The dramatic price fluctuations have directly driven up import costs. In just 30 days, the EU's fossil fuel import bill has increased by an additional $16.2 billion (equivalent to 14 billion euros), placing a significant burden on the finances and businesses of member states.
The crisis is not short-term: the tight supply of refined oil products and the transmission of electricity prices have created a chain reaction. Jorgensen emphasized, "We must not have any illusions that the impact of this crisis will be short-lived—the opposite is true."
Although there is no global oil and gas supply shortage in the EU at present, the tension in local markets has gradually spread: the supply of refined oil products such as diesel and jet fuel is tightening, the supply constraints in the global natural gas market are continuing to intensify, and this pressure is constantly being transmitted to electricity prices, forming a chain reaction of "energy shortage → price increase → cost transmission".
The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become a critical point of disruption in the global energy supply chain, directly leading to a complete halt in liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the UAE.
To make matters worse, Qatar's core liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity was severely damaged by Iranian missile attacks, forcing the state-owned Qatar Energy to declare force majeure on its contracts and initiate loss accounting procedures, further compressing the effective supply of global LNG and exacerbating the market supply gap.
The supply shortage has triggered a buying frenzy in the global liquefied natural gas spot market, with Asian buyers gaining an advantage in auctions by offering higher bids, directly squeezing European purchasing space.
Summer is typically a critical window for replenishing EU natural gas storage facilities, but the increased difficulty of replenishment not only drives up short-term procurement costs but also directly threatens the EU's energy supply security for the coming winter.
In response to the energy crisis, Jorgensen clarified the EU's measures: "The European Commission has initiated coordination efforts to replenish natural gas storage facilities and ensure the security of oil supplies."
He emphasized his core position: "It is better to be prepared than to regret it later. We are working urgently to develop a complete set of policy tools, which will be officially released soon to help member countries build a solid cost protection barrier for residents and businesses."
From the perspective of financial market trends, the rebound in US Treasury yields and international oil prices resonates, further validating the judgment that energy prices will remain high for a long time, forming a logical loop with the EU's official warning.
International crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, but have since rebounded by more than 3%, recovering most of their losses.
The core supporting logic lies in the rigid constraints on the supply side—the problems of blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and damaged production capacity in Qatar are difficult to repair in the short term, and even if the war eases, the reconstruction of the damaged supply chain will take a long time.
The temporary rebound in US Treasury yields is essentially the market pricing in energy-driven inflation, indirectly confirming the stickiness of high energy prices.
For most of March, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed from 4.15% to 4.44% as soaring oil prices boosted inflation expectations. The market was driven by an "inflation trade," with concerns that high energy prices would push up overall price levels, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain its tight monetary policy.
Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on March 30, stating that he would "ignore" supply-side shocks, which led to a short-term decline in U.S. Treasury yields, the previous month-long rebound in yields had already fully reflected the market's deep concerns about inflation caused by high energy prices.
The EU's official warning, the strong rebound in oil prices, and the pricing of inflation expectations in US Treasury yields form a complete logical loop.
Even after the Middle East conflict ends, multiple factors such as energy market supply imbalances, supply chain reconstruction cycles, and global scramble for energy will continue to support high energy prices.
The anxieties and price stickiness in the global energy market are not short-term phenomena, but rather core variables that will have a long-term impact on global inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing.
This energy crisis, triggered by geopolitical conflict, will have an impact on global markets far beyond the short term, putting continuous pressure on the EU and the global economy.
In terms of news, Trump claimed that the Iranian president had requested a ceasefire, adding that he would consider the request when the Strait of Hormuz was "open, free and unobstructed." However, shortly afterward, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was "firmly in its hands" and that it "would not be opened to the enemy of this country because of the absurd performance of the US president," indicating that the war was indeed at a stalemate.
Soaring prices and surging import costs are putting significant pressure on the EU economy.
Jorgensen revealed key data at an informal meeting of EU energy ministers: just one month after the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, EU natural gas prices have soared by about 70%, and crude oil prices have also risen by 60%.
The dramatic price fluctuations have directly driven up import costs. In just 30 days, the EU's fossil fuel import bill has increased by an additional $16.2 billion (equivalent to 14 billion euros), placing a significant burden on the finances and businesses of member states.
The crisis is not short-term: the tight supply of refined oil products and the transmission of electricity prices have created a chain reaction. Jorgensen emphasized, "We must not have any illusions that the impact of this crisis will be short-lived—the opposite is true."
Although there is no global oil and gas supply shortage in the EU at present, the tension in local markets has gradually spread: the supply of refined oil products such as diesel and jet fuel is tightening, the supply constraints in the global natural gas market are continuing to intensify, and this pressure is constantly being transmitted to electricity prices, forming a chain reaction of "energy shortage → price increase → cost transmission".
The core trigger for the supply chain disruption: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz + severe damage to Qatar's production capacity.
The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become a critical point of disruption in the global energy supply chain, directly leading to a complete halt in liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the UAE.
To make matters worse, Qatar's core liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity was severely damaged by Iranian missile attacks, forcing the state-owned Qatar Energy to declare force majeure on its contracts and initiate loss accounting procedures, further compressing the effective supply of global LNG and exacerbating the market supply gap.
Global buying frenzy: Asian buyers outbid European buyers, hindering restocking window.
The supply shortage has triggered a buying frenzy in the global liquefied natural gas spot market, with Asian buyers gaining an advantage in auctions by offering higher bids, directly squeezing European purchasing space.
Summer is typically a critical window for replenishing EU natural gas storage facilities, but the increased difficulty of replenishment not only drives up short-term procurement costs but also directly threatens the EU's energy supply security for the coming winter.
EU Response: Replenishment Coordination + Policy Toolkit to Build a Strong Protective Barrier
In response to the energy crisis, Jorgensen clarified the EU's measures: "The European Commission has initiated coordination efforts to replenish natural gas storage facilities and ensure the security of oil supplies."
He emphasized his core position: "It is better to be prepared than to regret it later. We are working urgently to develop a complete set of policy tools, which will be officially released soon to help member countries build a solid cost protection barrier for residents and businesses."
Financial Market Validation: Oil Price Rebound + Rising US Treasury Yields Confirm High Price Stickiness
From the perspective of financial market trends, the rebound in US Treasury yields and international oil prices resonates, further validating the judgment that energy prices will remain high for a long time, forming a logical loop with the EU's official warning.
International crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, but have since rebounded by more than 3%, recovering most of their losses.
The core supporting logic lies in the rigid constraints on the supply side—the problems of blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and damaged production capacity in Qatar are difficult to repair in the short term, and even if the war eases, the reconstruction of the damaged supply chain will take a long time.
The temporary rebound in US Treasury yields is essentially the market pricing in energy-driven inflation, indirectly confirming the stickiness of high energy prices.
For most of March, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed from 4.15% to 4.44% as soaring oil prices boosted inflation expectations. The market was driven by an "inflation trade," with concerns that high energy prices would push up overall price levels, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain its tight monetary policy.
Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on March 30, stating that he would "ignore" supply-side shocks, which led to a short-term decline in U.S. Treasury yields, the previous month-long rebound in yields had already fully reflected the market's deep concerns about inflation caused by high energy prices.
Summary: Multiple signals indicate that high energy prices are likely to remain the norm.
The EU's official warning, the strong rebound in oil prices, and the pricing of inflation expectations in US Treasury yields form a complete logical loop.
Even after the Middle East conflict ends, multiple factors such as energy market supply imbalances, supply chain reconstruction cycles, and global scramble for energy will continue to support high energy prices.
The anxieties and price stickiness in the global energy market are not short-term phenomena, but rather core variables that will have a long-term impact on global inflation, monetary policy, and asset pricing.
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