A decline in the US dollar index led to a rise in gold and silver prices.
2026-04-02 00:51:48
On Wednesday (April 1st) during the US trading session, gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, driven by a weaker dollar, while the market closely watched the latest developments regarding a possible easing of the US-Iran conflict. By midday, June gold futures rose $130.60 to $4809.2 per ounce; May silver futures rose $1.12 to $75.755 per ounce. Spot gold rose 2.44% during the session, reaching a high of $4790.54 per ounce.
A weaker dollar and changes in the bond market were the main drivers.
The US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day this week, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of non-US currencies. Meanwhile, rising global government bond prices and declining yields also provided support for precious metals. Previously, market concerns about the Iranian conflict leading to soaring energy prices and pushing up inflation led central banks to maintain high interest rates or further tighten policy; however, the recent shift in the bond market reflects investors' growing concerns that persistently high energy costs will drag down global economic growth, prompting central banks to reconsider their interest rate cuts. Bob Habercohn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that if the situation eases, gold prices could return above $5,000 per ounce as expectations of interest rate cuts resurface.
The development of the US-Iran conflict has become the focus of the market.
Market sentiment was heavily influenced by Trump's statements. Trump posted on social media that Iran had requested a ceasefire and that the US would consider a ceasefire once the Strait of Hormuz reopened. He also stated that the US would "soon be leaving Iran" and that military action could end "within two to three weeks," regardless of whether an agreement was reached.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran is willing to end the conflict, but needs guarantees that war will not happen again. Despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and persistently high oil prices, optimistic expectations of a de-escalation have improved risk sentiment, leading to a decline in oil prices and consequently benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold.
IG market analyst Tony Sicamor points out that the end of the conflict is a double-edged sword for gold: on the one hand, lasting peace will eliminate geopolitical safe-haven demand; on the other hand, falling oil prices and slowing inflation may reignite expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2026, thus providing support for gold prices.
Strong US economic data failed to halt the rise in gold prices.
Despite robust U.S. economic data—ADP private sector employment increased by 62,000 in March (better than expected), retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in February (better than expected), and the ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7—gold continued its upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of potential interest rate cuts.
In March, spot gold fell by more than 11% due to war-related inflation concerns, and the market is currently reassessing the Federal Reserve's policy path. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market still expects the Fed to maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range until 2026, but if oil prices fall significantly, expectations for rate cuts may rise again.
Technical Analysis
(4-hour chart of spot gold source: EasyForex)
Spot gold broke out of an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart and stood above the 50-period SMA, currently testing resistance at the 100-period SMA (around $4746). The RSI is rising towards 69, and the MACD remains positive with a strong histogram, indicating strong buying momentum. A successful break above the 100-period SMA would target resistance at $4850 and the psychological level of $5000; support levels to watch are the upper trendline of the ascending triangle (around $4600) and the 50-period SMA (around $4496).
Overall, gold and silver have received strong support in the short term due to the combined effects of a weaker dollar, expectations of easing geopolitical tensions, and a potential shift in monetary policy. The market will continue to focus on Trump's national address on Thursday and further developments in the US-Iran situation.
At 04:02 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,783.76 per ounce, up 2.5%.
A weaker dollar and changes in the bond market were the main drivers.
The US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day this week, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of non-US currencies. Meanwhile, rising global government bond prices and declining yields also provided support for precious metals. Previously, market concerns about the Iranian conflict leading to soaring energy prices and pushing up inflation led central banks to maintain high interest rates or further tighten policy; however, the recent shift in the bond market reflects investors' growing concerns that persistently high energy costs will drag down global economic growth, prompting central banks to reconsider their interest rate cuts. Bob Habercohn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that if the situation eases, gold prices could return above $5,000 per ounce as expectations of interest rate cuts resurface.
The development of the US-Iran conflict has become the focus of the market.
Market sentiment was heavily influenced by Trump's statements. Trump posted on social media that Iran had requested a ceasefire and that the US would consider a ceasefire once the Strait of Hormuz reopened. He also stated that the US would "soon be leaving Iran" and that military action could end "within two to three weeks," regardless of whether an agreement was reached.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran is willing to end the conflict, but needs guarantees that war will not happen again. Despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and persistently high oil prices, optimistic expectations of a de-escalation have improved risk sentiment, leading to a decline in oil prices and consequently benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold.
IG market analyst Tony Sicamor points out that the end of the conflict is a double-edged sword for gold: on the one hand, lasting peace will eliminate geopolitical safe-haven demand; on the other hand, falling oil prices and slowing inflation may reignite expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2026, thus providing support for gold prices.
Strong US economic data failed to halt the rise in gold prices.
Despite robust U.S. economic data—ADP private sector employment increased by 62,000 in March (better than expected), retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in February (better than expected), and the ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7—gold continued its upward trend due to geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of potential interest rate cuts.
In March, spot gold fell by more than 11% due to war-related inflation concerns, and the market is currently reassessing the Federal Reserve's policy path. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market still expects the Fed to maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range until 2026, but if oil prices fall significantly, expectations for rate cuts may rise again.
Technical Analysis
(4-hour chart of spot gold source: EasyForex)
Spot gold broke out of an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart and stood above the 50-period SMA, currently testing resistance at the 100-period SMA (around $4746). The RSI is rising towards 69, and the MACD remains positive with a strong histogram, indicating strong buying momentum. A successful break above the 100-period SMA would target resistance at $4850 and the psychological level of $5000; support levels to watch are the upper trendline of the ascending triangle (around $4600) and the 50-period SMA (around $4496).
Overall, gold and silver have received strong support in the short term due to the combined effects of a weaker dollar, expectations of easing geopolitical tensions, and a potential shift in monetary policy. The market will continue to focus on Trump's national address on Thursday and further developments in the US-Iran situation.
At 04:02 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,783.76 per ounce, up 2.5%.
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