The US March non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and the market generally expects only a slight rebound in jobs, with very limited growth, as the threshold for judging the health of the labor market is constantly being lowered.

The U.S. economy is projected to add 59,000 jobs in March, a rather weak figure by standards from earlier years of this decade, but enough to keep the unemployment rate stable at 4.4%. A combination of factors, including immigration restrictions, demographic shifts, and geopolitical uncertainties, has led to businesses being unwilling to engage in large-scale hiring or layoffs, resulting in a relatively stagnant labor market and a series of lackluster monthly employment data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time this Friday (April 3). However, the stock market will be closed on Good Friday.

The criteria for judging "good" or "bad" employment data have changed significantly.

"We have to rethink our perception of good and bad employment data," said Guy Berger, chief economist at Homebase, a provider of workforce management services for small businesses.

He added that reports showing job losses, like the one in February, would have "sounded the alarm bells about the state of the labor market" in the past. He went on to say, "Right now we're just saying, 'Yes, this report is bad, but it doesn't make anyone panic about the job market.' When I saw that report, I didn't think, 'Wow, we're about to go into a recession.'"

The unemployment rate has become a core indicator for judging the stability of the labor market.

Guy Berger noted that he focuses more on the unemployment rate as a measure of labor market stability, a view that is highly consistent with that of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bank officials.

With profound changes in the labor force structure, less job growth is now needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. The current unemployment rate of 4.4% is only 0.2 percentage points higher than a year ago, despite extremely weak job growth during the same period.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated its previous research on the break-even point for job growth in a recent report. Economists at the Fed now believe that the number could be as low as 15,000 and as high as 87,000. This estimate is a significant drop from 15,300 in April 2025 and also lower than the 32,000 to 82,000 range updated in August 2025.

In other words, the level of job growth needed to maintain near-full employment in the labor market is now far lower than at any previous time.

"Things have been slowly deteriorating over the past few years," Guy Berger said. But he added, "There are no clear signs yet that we're really heading into a recession."

Concerns about the risk of recession are rising among some institutions on Wall Street.

However, some Wall Street economists disagree with this relatively optimistic assessment. Goldman Sachs, Moody's Analytics, and other institutions have recently raised their probability of a recession over the next 12 months, focusing on the continued slowdown in employment and the threat posed by sharply rising energy costs.

Data released earlier this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the hiring rate (the percentage of people hired out of the workforce) has fallen to 3.1%, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic recession in 2020. The last time a similar low was reached was in January 2011.

Job growth is highly dependent on healthcare, and its quality is a concern.

Nevertheless, Homebase's data was largely consistent with other indicators, including the ADP Private Sector Employment Report, which showed a slight increase in jobs in March. February saw a loss of 92,000 jobs, partly due to a strike at Kaiser Permanente in California and Hawaii that temporarily kept approximately 31,000 workers out of work; that strike has since been resolved.

Over the past year, job growth in the U.S. economy has been highly dependent on the healthcare sector. In fact, excluding healthcare, the U.S. experienced a net loss of over 500,000 jobs in the past year.

ADP reported on Wednesday that private sector jobs increased by 62,000, slightly above market expectations, but almost all of the growth came from the healthcare sector, which added 58,000 jobs.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson stated that even this figure masks underlying weakness. She pointed out, "The question is, are these jobs that can drive economic growth? Because many of them are low-paying home care assistant positions, rather than the high-quality jobs that offer full-time, full-benefits, and 401(k) retirement plans and effectively support consumer spending. "

EY-Parthenon is one of the Wall Street firms that has raised its recession forecast. Lydia Boussour, senior economist at the firm, said the healthcare sector "will be a key focus in this report."

In a report, Lydia Boussour wrote, "We expect the labor market to be essentially frozen in 2026, with companies engaging in selective hiring, slower wage growth, and strategic adjustments to their workforce as labor supply remains historically tight. Downside risks dominate due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with the probability of a recession currently at 40%."

In conclusion , although the March non-farm payrolls data is expected to rebound slightly to 59,000, this figure can hardly mask the overall weakness of the US labor market. As the criteria for "good jobs" continue to lower, the unemployment rate has become a more important indicator. While the healthcare industry continues to contribute the majority of new jobs, the quality of employment is worrying. Several Wall Street institutions have raised their assessments of the risk of a recession in 2026 due to slowing employment and rising energy costs.

The future direction of the labor market will require continued monitoring of subsequent economic data and policy signals from the Federal Reserve.