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2026-04-08 14:37:06
[German Factory Orders Recover Before Iran War, But Energy Shock and Interest Rate Hike Risks Loom Over Outlook] (1) Before the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war, German manufacturing orders rose 0.9% month-on-month in February, a slight recovery from the sharp decline of 11.1% in January, slightly below the market expectation of 1.0%. Large orders remained weak. (2) The automotive, textile, and metals industries were the main drivers of order growth. Previously, thanks to the government's commitment of over $1 trillion in defense and infrastructure investment, orders surged at the end of 2025 (up 6.4% month-on-month in December), with fourth-quarter orders nearly 10% higher than the third quarter. (3) The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war has again pushed up oil and gas prices, and German chemical companies (such as BASF) have begun to raise prices. Rising inflation may prompt the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, further dampening order demand. Investors expect the ECB to raise interest rates nearly three times this year.
