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[Copper Prices Jump to Three-Week High as Ceasefire Eases Economic Concerns, But Institutions Warn Rebound is Fragile] ⑴ On Wednesday, copper prices jumped to a three-week high after US President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, easing market concerns about a global economic slowdown caused by the Middle East conflict. ⑵ Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.5% to $12,737.50 per tonne, hitting a high of $12,755.50 during the session, the highest since March 18, after copper prices fell 7.6% in March due to economic concerns stemming from the war with Iran. ⑶ Sukden Financial, in a report on base metals, noted that the ceasefire may lead to a short-term easing of energy risk premiums, but the agreement appears fragile and conditional, and the market may remain driven by news rather than a sustained recovery in risk appetite. ⑷ The discount of spot copper to three-month copper widened to $89.50 per tonne from $84.60 per tonne on Tuesday, indicating that the metal is not in short supply, and copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses have risen to their highest level since March 2018. (5) Aluminum prices remained flat at $3,475 per tonne, after previously surging due to disruptions in transporting aluminum from Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz to export markets. Damage to smelters in the UAE and Bahrain caused by Iranian attacks late last month led to supply shortages. (6) From a psychological perspective, the broad-based rebound in base metals reflects market relief at the fading of tail risks. However, structural signals such as widening discounts and high inventories indicate that the fundamental supply and demand situation has not improved in tandem, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rebound. (7) Future focus will be on the actual restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire and the progress of smelting capacity recovery in the Gulf region. These two factors will determine the pace of supply recovery in industrial metals and the true extent of the decline in risk premiums.