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2026-04-09 10:01:00
[FTSE Russell Head of Research: Gold's Safe-Haven Role Remains Unchanged, Stagflation Signals Strengthen Commodity Allocation Value] (1) Indrani De, Global Head of Investment Research at FTSE Russell, said that although gold has recently experienced sharp fluctuations and failed to attract safe-haven buying amid geopolitical risks, its role in investment portfolios has not undergone a structural change. Gold continues to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty, but investors need to distinguish between long-term fundamentals and short-term headwinds. (2) Gold's safe-haven appeal is being offset by rising opportunity costs of holding non-interest-bearing assets: Middle East conflicts have driven up energy prices and reignited inflation concerns, which in turn have fueled market expectations of central bank interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, after gold prices rose to a record high of $5,600 at the beginning of the year, a more severe profit-taking cycle has emerged, making gold more sensitive to market liquidity. However, the decline in gold prices is roughly equivalent to that of global stock markets and is part of a broader asset repricing. (3) The global economy is sending "stagflation" signals (slower growth + continued inflation), and the commodity market (rising oil prices and weakening copper prices) clearly indicates the risk of stagflation. In this environment, gold still serves as a defensive ballast, while other commodities (especially energy, industrial metals, and transition metals) are also gaining sustained demand due to AI and green transformation, making diversified allocation even more justifiable.
