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2026-04-09 12:55:13
[Bridgewater's Dalio: The current US-Israel-Iran conflict is part of a world war, and the probability of multi-regional conflict in the next five years is over 50%] (1) Dalio warned that the US-Israel-Iran conflict is not an isolated event, but a component of a larger world war, and will not end in the short term. The current situation is highly similar to that of 1913-1914 and 1938-1939, and is in a critical stage of transition from "pre-war confrontation" to "wartime combat". (2) The typical trend of the conflict in this stage is escalation rather than easing. He judged that the probability of at least one major multi-regional conflict breaking out in the next five years is over 50%. The market's general expectation that "the war will end soon and everything will return to normal" is an underestimation risk. (3) Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Dalio believes that the judgment that its closure will have a significant impact on China is not valid (China has abundant energy and a large amount of oil reserves). Although the United States has the strongest military, it is the most excessive in expansion and the weakest in the ability to bear the long-term cost of war. (4) He proposed a classic big cycle framework, pointing out that the world order has shifted from a multilateral rule-based order to a "might makes right" order, and more conflicts can be foreseen. The most reliable indicator of victory in a war is not which side is the strongest, but which side can endure the greatest suffering for the longest time.
