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2026-04-09 18:04:34
[EU Wheat Production Increase Fails to Reverse Export Decline; North African Bumper Harvest Squeezes Black Sea Grain Market Share] ⑴ Consulting firm Expana released its monthly report on Thursday, slightly raising its EU soft wheat production forecast for 2026/27 by 100,000 tons to 128.7 million tons, citing generally favorable crop growing conditions. ⑵ Despite the month-on-month increase, this forecast remains significantly lower than the actual output of 137.1 million tons in 2025/26, indicating that the tight supply situation for EU wheat in the medium term has not fundamentally reversed. ⑶ During the same period, Expana raised its EU maize production forecast for 2026/27 from 57.9 million tons last month to 58.3 million tons, while maintaining its barley production forecast at 52.3 million tons, a significant decline from 57.2 million tons in 2025/26. ⑷ Exports are facing headwinds. Given the better-than-expected harvest prospects in North Africa and the Middle East and the corresponding contraction in import demand, Expana simultaneously lowered its export outlook for EU soft wheat and barley for 2026/27. (5) Analysts point out that with the uncertain prospects of the Black Sea Grain Agreement and the disruption of shipping from the Hormuz pushing up ocean freight costs, the marginal weakening of the EU's grain export competitiveness may further reshape global grain trade flows. (6) The market will subsequently focus on North African actual yield data and the pace of Middle Eastern procurement. If the decline in import demand exceeds expectations, the pressure of accumulated EU wheat ending stocks may exert temporary downward pressure on the pan-European exchange's milling wheat futures contract.
