The ceasefire has faltered, and Iran has taken a hardline stance, but market risk appetite is expected to recover.
2026-04-09 18:33:49
The war with Iran enters its 41st day, with regional tensions escalating sharply amid controversy over the ceasefire agreement.
Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on Lebanon, resulting in at least 254 deaths and 1,165 injuries in a single day, marking the highest single-day casualty count in Lebanon during this round of the war.
Lebanese authorities have declared a national day of mourning, closed public institutions and lowered flags to half-mast. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has mobilized national political and diplomatic resources to contain any potential Israeli military strikes.
This bloody attack occurred just hours after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was announced, drawing strong condemnation from the international community and making the question of whether Lebanon should be included in the ceasefire a central point of contention among the parties involved.
Regarding the coverage boundaries of the ceasefire agreement, there is a stark contrast between the international community and regional countries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly declared that Lebanon is not included in the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, and US Vice President JD Vance simultaneously reiterated that "the US has never made any such commitment," directly denying Lebanon's inclusion in the previous ceasefire agreement.
However, Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif, who was the mediator of the ceasefire, insisted that the agreement itself included a cessation of fighting in Lebanon.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, citing Sharif's remarks, issued a strong warning to Washington that it must choose between a "comprehensive ceasefire" and "continuing the war through Israel," stating that "the two are mutually exclusive."
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas, French President Macron, and British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper have all voiced their support for including Lebanon in the ceasefire. Macron has also held intensive phone calls with the leaders of the US, Iran, and Lebanon, calling it "the best path to peace."
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and the International Committee of the Red Cross also expressed strong indignation at Israel's attack, condemning it for "performing a horrific massacre within hours of a ceasefire" and violating basic humanitarian principles.
Iran is simultaneously exerting its efforts in military conflict and diplomatic negotiations, demonstrating a multi-faceted strategic approach.
On the diplomatic front, Iranian President Masoud Pezehikian explicitly listed "stopping Israeli attacks in Lebanon" as a key condition of his 10-point peace plan;
The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister further stated that the Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad to participate in peace talks , but the core prerequisite is that Israel cease its attacks on Lebanon. He emphasized that "any peace agreement in the region must include Lebanon, and the next few hours are crucial."
Regarding the controversy over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister clarified that the strait is open to all civilian vessels, and reports of its closure are incorrect. However, due to mines left over from the war, all ships only need to contact the Iranian side for guidance on safe routes. "Anyone who communicates with the Iranian authorities can obtain a passage permit."
Meanwhile, Iran revealed that it nearly took retaliatory action last night, but ultimately chose to exercise restraint to advance diplomatic activities, including responding to the US call for it to halt its attacks on Lebanon.
On the nuclear issue, Mohammad Eslanmi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, issued a strong statement, calling the calls from hostile countries to limit Iran's uranium enrichment program "wishful thinking," adding that "no law or individual can stop us," and emphasizing that the past actions and current wars of hostile countries have all failed.
Diplomatic efforts proceeded with difficulty amidst the controversy.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance will lead a delegation to meet with Iran in Pakistan on Saturday, accompanied by Steve Vitkov and Jared Kushner, who previously spearheaded the negotiations. However, Iran has made it clear that it does not trust the two, citing the joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that triggered the war during the Geneva talks in February, which has eroded the credibility of the negotiations.
Lebanese Prime Minister Salam launched a full-scale diplomatic effort, while regional powers such as Oman and Qatar condemned the Israeli attack as a war crime. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Shia al-Soudani also joined the condemnation, emphasizing that the violence must be stopped immediately to protect civilians and maintain regional stability.
The Iraqi military also arrested those responsible for the Erbil drone attack that killed a French officer involved in the international anti-terrorism coalition in an attempt to curb the spillover of the conflict.
Security risks in the Gulf region are rising simultaneously.
Iranian drone and missile attacks have affected several Gulf countries: Kuwait’s key oil facilities and power plants suffered severe damage and fires after the attacks.
A fire broke out at the Al Habshan gas complex in Abu Dhabi, UAE, after intercepting missile debris, injuring three people and halting operations; Qatar shot down seven missiles launched by Iran, and key Saudi oil pipelines and Bahrain were also attacked.
The UAE urgently sought clarification on the ceasefire terms between the US and Iran, warning that ambiguity in the terms could lead to continued regional instability.
There is a serious division within the United States regarding the ceasefire agreement.
Al Jazeera reports that there is "no clear consensus" within the White House on the core terms of the agreement, and differing opinions on whether Iran's 10-point plan and Lebanon should be included in the agreement, leading to significant uncertainty regarding the scope of the agreement.
Meanwhile, an anti-war march broke out in Times Square, New York, with hundreds of demonstrators gathering to call for a permanent end to the Iraq War and a halt to the bombing of Lebanon. Domestic anti-war pressure was putting pressure on the government's foreign policy decisions.
In addition, Trump harshly criticized NATO allies for failing to provide direct military support, calling the alliance a "failed test" and further exposing the rifts within the Western camp.
Despite the sharp differences in positions among the parties and the ongoing conflict, the general direction of the US and Iran to continue negotiations remains unchanged, given the current evolving situation.
The tough stance taken by the head of Iran's nuclear program is likely a bargaining chip at the negotiating table, rather than an unshakeable final position. This is because Iran has previously reached a nuclear agreement, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated that Iran can currently deter the world without relying on nuclear threats.
Therefore, it is highly likely that concessions will be made on the nuclear issue, abandoning overt nuclear weapons development in exchange for a more favorable negotiation outcome.
The bombing of Hezbollah's top leaders was a bitter pill for Iran to swallow, as it was difficult to retaliate in the short term. This led Iran to take a tougher stance in the media and also garnered international support.
Judging from the international community's mediation efforts and the interests of all parties, Lebanon will eventually be included in the ceasefire. The continued bloody conflict is not in the core interests of any party. Easing the situation and stabilizing regional order through negotiations is the inevitable choice under the current turmoil in the Middle East.
As a result, gold and technology stocks may continue to rebound after their setbacks, and global risk appetite is expected to recover in the short term.
Media coverage and oil prices may remain high in the future, but the overall narrative's bias towards the impact of the conflict is fading.
Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on Lebanon, resulting in at least 254 deaths and 1,165 injuries in a single day, marking the highest single-day casualty count in Lebanon during this round of the war.
Lebanese authorities have declared a national day of mourning, closed public institutions and lowered flags to half-mast. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has mobilized national political and diplomatic resources to contain any potential Israeli military strikes.
This bloody attack occurred just hours after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was announced, drawing strong condemnation from the international community and making the question of whether Lebanon should be included in the ceasefire a central point of contention among the parties involved.
Dispute over the scope of the ceasefire: Sharply opposing positions among the parties
Regarding the coverage boundaries of the ceasefire agreement, there is a stark contrast between the international community and regional countries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly declared that Lebanon is not included in the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, and US Vice President JD Vance simultaneously reiterated that "the US has never made any such commitment," directly denying Lebanon's inclusion in the previous ceasefire agreement.
However, Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif, who was the mediator of the ceasefire, insisted that the agreement itself included a cessation of fighting in Lebanon.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, citing Sharif's remarks, issued a strong warning to Washington that it must choose between a "comprehensive ceasefire" and "continuing the war through Israel," stating that "the two are mutually exclusive."
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas, French President Macron, and British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper have all voiced their support for including Lebanon in the ceasefire. Macron has also held intensive phone calls with the leaders of the US, Iran, and Lebanon, calling it "the best path to peace."
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and the International Committee of the Red Cross also expressed strong indignation at Israel's attack, condemning it for "performing a horrific massacre within hours of a ceasefire" and violating basic humanitarian principles.
Iran's Two-Pronged Response: Negotiation Prerequisites and Stance Declaration
Iran is simultaneously exerting its efforts in military conflict and diplomatic negotiations, demonstrating a multi-faceted strategic approach.
On the diplomatic front, Iranian President Masoud Pezehikian explicitly listed "stopping Israeli attacks in Lebanon" as a key condition of his 10-point peace plan;
The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister further stated that the Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad to participate in peace talks , but the core prerequisite is that Israel cease its attacks on Lebanon. He emphasized that "any peace agreement in the region must include Lebanon, and the next few hours are crucial."
Regarding the controversy over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister clarified that the strait is open to all civilian vessels, and reports of its closure are incorrect. However, due to mines left over from the war, all ships only need to contact the Iranian side for guidance on safe routes. "Anyone who communicates with the Iranian authorities can obtain a passage permit."
Meanwhile, Iran revealed that it nearly took retaliatory action last night, but ultimately chose to exercise restraint to advance diplomatic activities, including responding to the US call for it to halt its attacks on Lebanon.
On the nuclear issue, Mohammad Eslanmi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, issued a strong statement, calling the calls from hostile countries to limit Iran's uranium enrichment program "wishful thinking," adding that "no law or individual can stop us," and emphasizing that the past actions and current wars of hostile countries have all failed.
Diplomatic mediation advances: Multi-party collaboration and regional risk spillover
Diplomatic efforts proceeded with difficulty amidst the controversy.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance will lead a delegation to meet with Iran in Pakistan on Saturday, accompanied by Steve Vitkov and Jared Kushner, who previously spearheaded the negotiations. However, Iran has made it clear that it does not trust the two, citing the joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that triggered the war during the Geneva talks in February, which has eroded the credibility of the negotiations.
Lebanese Prime Minister Salam launched a full-scale diplomatic effort, while regional powers such as Oman and Qatar condemned the Israeli attack as a war crime. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Shia al-Soudani also joined the condemnation, emphasizing that the violence must be stopped immediately to protect civilians and maintain regional stability.
The Iraqi military also arrested those responsible for the Erbil drone attack that killed a French officer involved in the international anti-terrorism coalition in an attempt to curb the spillover of the conflict.
Security risks in the Gulf region are rising simultaneously.
Iranian drone and missile attacks have affected several Gulf countries: Kuwait’s key oil facilities and power plants suffered severe damage and fires after the attacks.
A fire broke out at the Al Habshan gas complex in Abu Dhabi, UAE, after intercepting missile debris, injuring three people and halting operations; Qatar shot down seven missiles launched by Iran, and key Saudi oil pipelines and Bahrain were also attacked.
The UAE urgently sought clarification on the ceasefire terms between the US and Iran, warning that ambiguity in the terms could lead to continued regional instability.
Internal turmoil in the United States: confusion over the agreement and anti-war pressure
There is a serious division within the United States regarding the ceasefire agreement.
Al Jazeera reports that there is "no clear consensus" within the White House on the core terms of the agreement, and differing opinions on whether Iran's 10-point plan and Lebanon should be included in the agreement, leading to significant uncertainty regarding the scope of the agreement.
Meanwhile, an anti-war march broke out in Times Square, New York, with hundreds of demonstrators gathering to call for a permanent end to the Iraq War and a halt to the bombing of Lebanon. Domestic anti-war pressure was putting pressure on the government's foreign policy decisions.
In addition, Trump harshly criticized NATO allies for failing to provide direct military support, calling the alliance a "failed test" and further exposing the rifts within the Western camp.
Summary and personal opinion: Negotiations are progressing steadily, and concessions on the nuclear issue and a ceasefire in Lebanon are highly probable.
Despite the sharp differences in positions among the parties and the ongoing conflict, the general direction of the US and Iran to continue negotiations remains unchanged, given the current evolving situation.
The tough stance taken by the head of Iran's nuclear program is likely a bargaining chip at the negotiating table, rather than an unshakeable final position. This is because Iran has previously reached a nuclear agreement, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated that Iran can currently deter the world without relying on nuclear threats.
Therefore, it is highly likely that concessions will be made on the nuclear issue, abandoning overt nuclear weapons development in exchange for a more favorable negotiation outcome.
The bombing of Hezbollah's top leaders was a bitter pill for Iran to swallow, as it was difficult to retaliate in the short term. This led Iran to take a tougher stance in the media and also garnered international support.
Judging from the international community's mediation efforts and the interests of all parties, Lebanon will eventually be included in the ceasefire. The continued bloody conflict is not in the core interests of any party. Easing the situation and stabilizing regional order through negotiations is the inevitable choice under the current turmoil in the Middle East.
As a result, gold and technology stocks may continue to rebound after their setbacks, and global risk appetite is expected to recover in the short term.
Media coverage and oil prices may remain high in the future, but the overall narrative's bias towards the impact of the conflict is fading.
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