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[Caixin Futures: Most Ferrous Metals Show Weak Fluctuations, Rebar, Iron Ore, and Coking Coal Under Pressure] ⑴ Steel: Weak fluctuations. Steel demand remained relatively stable, while inventory declines narrowed, indicating emerging pressure. Funding saw rebar and hot-rolled coil contract rollovers, with both long and short positions increasing significantly among the top 20 holders for the October contract. Technically, the October rebar contract is suppressed by moving averages, with resistance shifting down to 3130 and support at 3065-3080. Pig iron production continues to rise and remains high, but the increase in demand is uncertain, and inventory pressure persists. Short-term demand may decline along with cost levels, but the peak demand during the peak season remains to be seen. Neutral to low valuations may limit downside potential. ⑵ Iron Ore: Reduce short positions opportunistically. The iron ore supply and demand growth pattern was disrupted by expectations of easing negotiations between China Mining and BHP, putting pressure on the market. Both long and short positions increased among the top 20 holders for the September contract, with short positions increasing more significantly, indicating a bearish bias. Technically, the 09 contract broke below the 60-day moving average yesterday and then the 40-day moving average, potentially testing the 735-745 support level. Shipping costs have decreased due to expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire, and the medium-term easing policy remains unchanged. However, the short-term decline is significant, and pig iron production has not yet peaked, so consider reducing short positions opportunistically. ⑶ Coking Coal: Opportunistic short selling. Supply is limited due to underground factors at some mines, leading to a slight decline in overall production in producing areas. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high. Downstream coking plants are purchasing on demand, and high pig iron prices support raw material demand, potentially limiting further declines. The top 20 long and short positions in the 05 contract increased, with short positions increasing more, indicating a bearish bias. Technically, the increased open interest in the 05 contract is putting significant downward pressure, and it may test the 1050-1065 support level in the short term. Weakening demand and delivery pressure are suppressing the near-month contract. Before the rollover, delivery logic will dominate the market; maintain a strategy of selling 05 on rallies and avoid chasing short positions. ⑷ Coking Coal: Fluctuating. Coking coal costs have decreased, and coking plant operations remain stable. Pig iron production continues to increase, and steel mills have seen inventory declines for three consecutive weeks, with restocking expectations remaining, limiting short-term supply-demand imbalances. The May contract is trading at a discount for more than one round, and a second round of coking coal price increases is imminent. Valuation supports the near-month contract, limiting downside potential, and short-term price movements will follow raw coal. (5) Manganese Silicon: Slightly weak with fluctuations. Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil and raw coal prices, bearish sentiment in the manganese silicon market has strengthened. Manufacturers still face significant cost pressures, and expectations of production cuts persist. Downstream purchases are based on immediate restocking needs, resulting in a relatively balanced supply and demand situation. Technically, the manganese silicon May contract continued its decline with reduced open interest, effectively breaking below the 40-day moving average, and may continue to test the 60-day moving average support. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top ten holders of the May contract decreased, with short positions decreasing more significantly.