Download App

[Caixin Futures: Palm Oil Shows Weakness and Volatility, Soybean Meal Recommended to Sell on Rallies] ⑴ Palm Oil: Shows weakness and volatility. Yesterday's ceasefire agreement significantly cooled the market, shifting the main trading focus to price negotiations, but underlying risks remain. The conditions for a reversal in the crude oil trend are not yet sufficient. Technically, edible oils have broken below the 20-day moving average, reaching the lower edge of the trading range, but have not continued to fall, indicating ongoing disagreement. Currently, we are in a transitional period between bullish and bearish trends, requiring further observation of market changes before formulating trading strategies. Yesterday, palm oil traders and downstream users made large-scale purchases, leading to a rebound in spot prices today: Guangdong 24-degree palm oil rose 30 yuan to 9530 yuan, soybean oil fell 20 yuan to 8820 yuan, and Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil rose 10 yuan to 9990 yuan. ⑵ Soybean Meal: Sell on rallies. The surge in crude oil prices has driven up vegetable oil prices, consequently increasing the cost of imported soybeans. Domestically, soybean imports gradually recovered after April. Based on shipping schedules, soybean arrivals in May are estimated at 11.5 million tons, and in June at 11 million tons, leading to a surge in supply pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended. (3) Corn: Wait and see for now. The relatively low inventory at northern ports is the main reason for the strong corn price, but the release of policy grain, wheat, and rice has a certain restraining effect on corn price increases. Demand is diverging. Feed demand is weakening due to weaker prices of mainstream livestock products, resulting in low enthusiasm for stockpiling by feed mills and farms. However, strong demand for corn processing remains strong. Corn prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but the increase may be limited. (4) Live Pigs: Shorting on rallies is recommended. Live pig spot prices continue to weaken, and prices are expected to continue to decline tomorrow. The main logic is that short-term supply pressure continues to ease, with previously accumulated large-weight pigs being gradually released for slaughter. Coupled with a relatively high slaughter weight, the market supply of live pigs is ample, and current terminal demand is insufficient, resulting in low efficiency and a supply-demand imbalance. Looking ahead, although the theoretical number of live pigs slaughtered in April and May will slightly decrease month-on-month due to signs of second-generation pigs entering the market after the Lunar New Year, the current slaughter weight is relatively high, and coupled with the expectation of second-generation pigs being slaughtered, the price trend in April and May is expected to remain unfavorable. It is recommended to sell on rallies. (5) Eggs: Buy on dips. The egg market is currently in a transitional period dominated by rising feed costs and marginal easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, rising corn and soybean meal prices have directly increased the cost of raising laying hens, with the feed cost per kilogram of eggs reaching around 3.5 yuan/kilogram. On the other hand, although the current number of laying hens in production remains high, the worst may have passed. Therefore, the underlying logic for egg prices is cost support and decreased supply coupled with increased demand. Prices are expected to rise moderately, but the high inventory level limits the potential for further increases.