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[The Ceasefire Celebration Cannot Mask the Aftermath: Oil Prices Plunge 40%, Still Significantly Higher Than Pre-War Levels] ⑴ Columnist Jamie McGuire points out that the global market's relief-driven rebound and oil price plunge triggered by the ceasefire agreement are not surprising, but the economic landscape after the initial euphoria dissipates will be far more severe than investors currently believe. ⑵ Even disregarding the real risk of the two-week ceasefire agreement breaking down and oil prices returning to above $100 per barrel, the economic damage caused by the past six weeks of war will last for a considerable period. ⑶ The Nasdaq index returned to its pre-February 28th level before the US-Israel attack on Iran on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 index was similar, with bargain hunters once again pulling Wall Street back from the series of shocks. ⑷ TD Securities strategists warn that normalcy will be drastically different from pre-war levels, and the normalization process for energy supply, inflation, growth, and monetary policy will still take several months to become clear. (5) The decline in gasoline, jet fuel, utility, and fertilizer prices over the next six weeks is unlikely to match the surge of the previous six weeks. Households and businesses will face energy costs far exceeding those of February 27th, inevitably putting pressure on spending and profits. (6) Although US crude oil futures have fallen 20% from their wartime peak last month, and recorded their largest single-day drop in five years on Wednesday, they are still 40% higher than pre-war levels and about 60% higher than the same period last year. This base effect poses a continued threat to the overall inflation outlook. (7) As energy costs are gradually passed on to utility, food, and manufactured goods prices, the US inflation rate this year is unlikely to consistently fall below 3%, and the probability of reaching 4% is higher than the possibility of falling back to the Fed's 2% target. (8) Experts estimate that at least 10 million barrels of crude oil per day would need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to provide substantial relief to oil prices, i.e., restore them to half of pre-war levels, a scenario unlikely to materialize in the short term. (9) Stagflationary pressures will be significantly stronger than before the war. Governmental fiscal situations are deteriorating under the dual pressure of crisis spending and rising debt servicing costs. Persistent high policy uncertainty is diminishing central banks' willingness to cut interest rates and increasing their inclination to raise them. (10) Stuart Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citigroup, frankly stated that he would not chase further gains in the S&P 500. Given the current volatile economic landscape, remaining cautious is the wise choice.