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2026-04-09 21:31:25
[Barclays Holds Firm at $85 Oil Price Anchor, Sluggish Strait of Hormuz Traffic Brewing Upward Risks] ⑴ Barclays stated on Thursday that the rapid normalization of traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz is consistent with its baseline forecast of $85 per barrel for Brent crude oil in 2026, but warned that any delay in traffic recovery or further escalation of the situation could push oil prices above current levels. ⑵ Barclays energy analyst Amalprit Singh pointed out that despite the ceasefire agreement, actual traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish, with recent data confirming his estimate of approximately 13 to 14 million barrels of supply disruption per day. ⑶ Barclays explicitly disagrees with the view held by some market participants that demand has adjusted sufficiently to suppress oil prices based on inventory data, believing that global inventory balance estimates were already 1 to 2 million barrels per day tighter than expected before the conflict erupted. (4) Under the baseline scenario, the inventory buffer provides ample room for demand contraction; therefore, unless a broader demand slowdown occurs, the bank maintains its forecast of an average Brent crude price of $85 this year and continues to see upside risks to prices. (5) Oil prices rose more than 3% on Thursday as market doubts persisted about whether the fragile two-week ceasefire agreement could guarantee the smooth flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has so far shown no signs of lifting the blockade. (6) Barclays expects the average Brent crude price to fall back to $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter under the baseline scenario, suggesting that current market prices have already largely priced in the optimistic expectation of a eventual return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz.
