The British pound remained range-bound against the US dollar, and the bullish rebound was not yet over.
2026-04-10 14:02:26
On Friday during Asian trading hours, GBP/USD ended its four-day winning streak, falling back to around 1.3430. The US dollar remained strong, supported by safe-haven demand, putting downward pressure on the pound.
From a market sentiment perspective, the situation in the Middle East remains the core driving factor. Although Israel has stated it will initiate direct negotiations with Lebanon, military operations continue, and the conflict risks further escalation. Meanwhile, the US has emphasized that it will maintain its military presence until Iran fully complies with the agreement, keeping the market cautious about the stability of the ceasefire.
Furthermore, negotiations for a potential long-term agreement between the US and Iran are scheduled to begin this weekend, but Iran has offered differing interpretations of the ceasefire conditions, particularly regarding the Lebanon issue, exacerbating market uncertainty. Against this backdrop, safe-haven flows have moved to the US dollar, putting downward pressure on the pound.
On the macro level, the market is focused on the upcoming release of the US March CPI data. Inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.3% year-on-year, driven by rising energy prices. This data will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, thus affecting the dollar's performance. If inflation is higher than expected, the dollar may strengthen further, and GBP/USD may continue its decline; conversely, lower inflation could drive a rebound in the exchange rate.
In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the Middle East conflict could trigger financial risks similar to those of 2008, especially given rising pressures in private credit markets. This statement highlights the potential fragility of the global financial system and has, to some extent, dampened risk appetite for the pound.
From the daily chart, GBP/USD encountered resistance at higher levels after a continuous rise, entering a short-term technical correction phase. The exchange rate failed to break through the previous high, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Currently, the price is still trading within an upward trend channel, but momentum has weakened. The 1.3380 area provides initial support; a break below this level could lead to a further pullback to the 1.3300 level. The 1.3500 level is a key resistance level; a break above this level could open up new upside potential. In terms of indicators, the RSI has retreated from its highs, and the MACD momentum has weakened, indicating a cooling of bullish momentum.
From the 4-hour chart, the short-term trend has shifted to a slightly bearish consolidation pattern. The exchange rate has broken below the short-term moving average support, forming a slight downward channel, indicating increased bearish momentum. The current level around 1.3400 is a key short-term support/resistance level; continued pressure could lead to further testing of the 1.3350 or even 1.3300 area. The 1.3460–1.3480 range forms short-term resistance. Technically, the RSI is below 50, and the MACD has entered below the zero line, indicating a relatively clear short-term bearish signal.
Overall, the GBP/USD pair is showing short-term weakness and remains in a range-bound pattern in the medium term. If the US dollar strengthens due to inflation data, the exchange rate may further test key support levels; conversely, it may return to its upward trend.
Editor's Summary : The current GBP/USD exchange rate is primarily driven by the US dollar. Geopolitical risks and inflation expectations are pushing the dollar stronger, while risk warnings from the UK are further suppressing the pound's performance. Technically, short-term downward pressure is increasing, and the market is awaiting US CPI data as a key catalyst for directional movement. In the short term, close attention should be paid to whether the 1.3380 support level and the 1.3500 resistance level are broken.
From a market sentiment perspective, the situation in the Middle East remains the core driving factor. Although Israel has stated it will initiate direct negotiations with Lebanon, military operations continue, and the conflict risks further escalation. Meanwhile, the US has emphasized that it will maintain its military presence until Iran fully complies with the agreement, keeping the market cautious about the stability of the ceasefire.
Furthermore, negotiations for a potential long-term agreement between the US and Iran are scheduled to begin this weekend, but Iran has offered differing interpretations of the ceasefire conditions, particularly regarding the Lebanon issue, exacerbating market uncertainty. Against this backdrop, safe-haven flows have moved to the US dollar, putting downward pressure on the pound.
On the macro level, the market is focused on the upcoming release of the US March CPI data. Inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.3% year-on-year, driven by rising energy prices. This data will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, thus affecting the dollar's performance. If inflation is higher than expected, the dollar may strengthen further, and GBP/USD may continue its decline; conversely, lower inflation could drive a rebound in the exchange rate.
In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the Middle East conflict could trigger financial risks similar to those of 2008, especially given rising pressures in private credit markets. This statement highlights the potential fragility of the global financial system and has, to some extent, dampened risk appetite for the pound.
From the daily chart, GBP/USD encountered resistance at higher levels after a continuous rise, entering a short-term technical correction phase. The exchange rate failed to break through the previous high, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Currently, the price is still trading within an upward trend channel, but momentum has weakened. The 1.3380 area provides initial support; a break below this level could lead to a further pullback to the 1.3300 level. The 1.3500 level is a key resistance level; a break above this level could open up new upside potential. In terms of indicators, the RSI has retreated from its highs, and the MACD momentum has weakened, indicating a cooling of bullish momentum.
From the 4-hour chart, the short-term trend has shifted to a slightly bearish consolidation pattern. The exchange rate has broken below the short-term moving average support, forming a slight downward channel, indicating increased bearish momentum. The current level around 1.3400 is a key short-term support/resistance level; continued pressure could lead to further testing of the 1.3350 or even 1.3300 area. The 1.3460–1.3480 range forms short-term resistance. Technically, the RSI is below 50, and the MACD has entered below the zero line, indicating a relatively clear short-term bearish signal.
Overall, the GBP/USD pair is showing short-term weakness and remains in a range-bound pattern in the medium term. If the US dollar strengthens due to inflation data, the exchange rate may further test key support levels; conversely, it may return to its upward trend.
Editor's Summary : The current GBP/USD exchange rate is primarily driven by the US dollar. Geopolitical risks and inflation expectations are pushing the dollar stronger, while risk warnings from the UK are further suppressing the pound's performance. Technically, short-term downward pressure is increasing, and the market is awaiting US CPI data as a key catalyst for directional movement. In the short term, close attention should be paid to whether the 1.3380 support level and the 1.3500 resistance level are broken.
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