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[Tax Payments Coincidentally Meet War-Driven Bond Hoarding: US Overnight Rate Breaks Upper Limit of Corridor, Raising Alarm] ⑴ The US guaranteed overnight funding rate jumped 5 basis points to 3.76% at the open on Tuesday, breaking through the upper limit of the Fed's 3.50% to 3.75% interest rate corridor. Three liquidity pumps were simultaneously at work: the withdrawal of fiscal deposits due to the April 15 tax deadline, the settlement of $48 billion in Treasury bonds, and the accumulation of collateral due to a large number of investors hoarding short-term Treasury bonds out of geopolitical panic. Last Thursday, the rate opened at only 3.59%, and the rapid surge in just three trading days revealed that reserve redundancy was approaching a critical threshold. ⑵ The Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility's 3.75% execution rate immediately came into focus. The bidding window for this tool opened at 8:15 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time on the same day. Historically, only 4 and 13 institutions used this tool on April 13th and 14th respectively, absorbing a total of less than $600 million, indicating that systemic pressure had not yet spread widely. However, today's interest rate spike above the upper limit means that primary dealers' willingness to offer collateral to the Federal Reserve in exchange for liquidity will significantly increase, and the number of participating institutions and the scale of bids are expected to jump sharply. (3) Although short-term pressure may be alleviated by subsequent fiscal spending, today's anomaly has exposed the vulnerability of the US money market to sudden funding disturbances. Federal funds futures pricing shows a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in June, with expectations of a rate cut almost zero. Against the backdrop of the upper limit of the interest rate corridor being repeatedly tested, if the escalation of the Hormuz situation further exacerbates the divergence in the quality of US Treasury collateral, the localized spasms in the overnight funding market may have the tail-end risk of evolving into a broader liquidity crisis.