According to the APP, gold prices fell slightly on Monday due to a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, news of a potential renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosted oil prices and sparked renewed concerns about inflationary pressures.

"The market's optimism about a ceasefire agreement in the US-Iran war seems to have been dashed last week, hence the decline in gold prices today," said Ilya Spivak, global head of macro affairs at an international macro analysis firm. "This has reignited the 'war-style trade' pattern that has been common since the beginning of the conflict. Crude oil prices have risen, which in turn has affected inflation expectations and pushed up yields and the dollar exchange rate."

Latest market developments show that gold prices were pressured by a rebound in the US dollar index in early Asian trading, losing some of their safe-haven appeal in the short term; while oil prices rebounded rapidly due to the potential disruption risk in the Taiwan Strait, with rising energy costs once again dominating trading sentiment. This correlation reflects how geopolitical uncertainty is reshaping the global asset pricing logic: a stronger US dollar, as a safe-haven currency, pushes up US Treasury yields, while simultaneously squeezing the performance of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

From a deeper perspective, the Strait of Hormuz , a crucial global energy transport route, faces renewed concerns about its potential closure, directly amplifying supply-side shocks. Rebounding oil prices not only increase production costs for businesses but also transmit imported inflation to the consumer end, forcing central banks to maintain or strengthen their tightening stance, further supporting the US dollar and suppressing gold. Unlike traditional safe-haven logic, under this "geo-trade" model, gold and oil prices exhibit a certain negative correlation: when rising oil prices exacerbate inflation expectations, gold's function as a store of value is replaced by higher-yielding US dollar assets.

To clearly compare the impact of different geopolitical scenarios on the market, the following table summarizes the two main paths currently in place:

Further analysis reveals that this event highlights the amplifying effect of the interaction between macroeconomic policies and geopolitical risks. Ilya Spivak's recent comments on this topic emphasized that while the market initially priced in optimism about a ceasefire last week, uncertainty surrounding negotiations has once again taken over, leading to a repricing of risk assets. Global manufacturing and energy-intensive industries will be the first to feel cost pressures, and investors need to be wary of the constraints that sticky inflation expectations may place on central bank policy decisions. Latest data shows that the rebound in oil prices has partially offset the previous decline, and the dollar index has risen in tandem, further confirming the return of "war-style trade."

Editor's Summary:
A stronger US dollar coupled with risks in the Strait of Hormuz is driving a short-term pullback in gold prices and reigniting concerns about oil price inflation, highlighting the continued impact of geopolitical factors on global commodities and monetary policy. The future market direction will heavily depend on the progress of negotiations and the balance of energy supply and demand; investors need to closely monitor relevant developments to adjust their allocation strategies.