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April 22nd Financial Breakfast: Iran refuses to attend the second round of Iran-US talks, Trump announces extension of ceasefire, gold prices fall back to test the $4730 level, oil prices surge over 5%.

2026-04-22 07:25:13

On Wednesday (April 22, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,727 per ounce. Gold prices hit a more than one-week low on Tuesday after Iran refused to attend the second round of Iran-US talks, Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire, and Vance temporarily shelved his plans to travel to Pakistan to negotiate with Iran. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh called for "systemic reforms" at his Senate hearing, including new methods for controlling inflation and reforming communication mechanisms. Due to renewed tensions in the Middle East, oil prices rose more than 5% on Tuesday, with US crude oil currently trading around $90.40 per barrel.

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Key Focus Today



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stock market


U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.59%, the S&P 500 down 0.63%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.59%. Early gains were wiped out, mainly as renewed concerns about the Middle East conflict overshadowed optimism from corporate earnings reports.

A senior Iranian official stated that Iran might attend the US-Iran talks in Pakistan if the US abandons its pressure, but would refuse negotiations aimed at forcing its surrender. Meanwhile, reports that US Vice President Vance canceled his trip to Pakistan for peace talks caused further declines in the stock market towards the close. Previously, the market had high expectations for an imminent peace agreement, leading to continuous gains in recent weeks. During the session, the S&P 500 energy sector closed 1.31% higher due to a jump in oil prices, becoming the only sector to rise.

UnitedHealth Group raised its annual profit forecast and exceeded expectations, sending its stock price soaring 7% and providing the biggest boost to the Dow Jones Industrial Average; Apple, on the other hand, fell 2.52% after announcing that CEO Tim Cook would hand over the reins to hardware head Tenus.

On the economic data front, U.S. retail sales rose 1.7% month-over-month in March, exceeding expectations, mainly supported by war-driven gasoline prices and tax rebates. In addition, the market is still digesting the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh at his hearing, in which he stated that he had not committed to interest rate cuts to the president and would act independently of the White House.

Gold Market


Gold prices extended their decline on Tuesday, with spot gold falling 2.2% to $4,712.04 per ounce, a more than one-week low. U.S. gold futures settled down 2.3% at $4,719.60, mainly weighed down by a 0.2% rise in the dollar and a climb in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield. Investors were also closely watching the potential outcome of U.S.-Iran talks and the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh.

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US President Trump said he was unwilling to extend the expiring ceasefire with Iran and that the US military was "ready to strike" if negotiations broke down, pushing oil prices up by more than 3%. The surge in oil prices since the start of the US-Israel war against Iran in late February has exacerbated inflation concerns and weakened expectations for interest rate cuts.

A senior market strategist at RJO Futures pointed out that rising yields and the dollar are putting pressure on gold prices, while conflicting signals from the situation in Iran are pushing up energy prices, also weighing on metals. Meanwhile, Warsh's call for "systemic reform" at the Federal Reserve during the hearing, including new methods for controlling inflation and reforming communication mechanisms, is expected to significantly increase market volatility during the hearing.

Spot silver fell 3.9% to $76.76, platinum fell 2.7% to $2033.37, and palladium fell 0.6% to $1541.56.

oil market


Oil prices rose about 3% on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures settling at $98.48 a barrel and WTI crude futures at $92.13 a barrel, as Iran has yet to decide whether to participate in peace talks with the United States, and the ceasefire has only one day remaining. US President Trump stated that he hopes to reach an agreement but is unwilling to extend the ceasefire, and said that the US military is "ready to deploy" if negotiations fail. The price rose as much as 5% during the session, but narrowed somewhat towards the close, as reports indicated that US Vice President Vance, who was scheduled to lead the delegation to the negotiations, had not yet boarded his plane to Islamabad as of noon on Tuesday.

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Shipping data shows that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely at a standstill, with only three ships passing through in the past 24 hours. This strait typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Trafigura's chief economist pointed out that even if the conflict is resolved tomorrow, the lost supply is as high as 1 billion barrels.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military said Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli troops stationed in southern Lebanon, accusing the group of violating the ceasefire agreement before the US-brokered talks.

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March, mainly driven by record growth in gas station revenue due to war-driven high gasoline prices, and tax rebates supporting other consumption.

Foreign exchange market


The dollar index rose 0.36% to 98.43 on Tuesday, reaching a one-week high, as uncertainty surrounding the prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire intensified, with investors worried about a potential continuation of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. With only one day remaining before the ceasefire deadline, US forces boarded an Iranian oil tanker at sea, and Iran subsequently stated that it had not yet decided whether to participate in peace talks; meanwhile, White House officials said that US Vice President Vance had not yet departed for Pakistan, following conflicting reports about his itinerary that had caused market volatility.

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The euro fell 0.44% to $1.1736, the yen fell 0.37% to 159.39 yen, and the pound fell 0.29% to $1.3493. Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh called for "systemic change" at his Senate hearing, including new methods for controlling inflation and reforming communication mechanisms.

In addition, U.S. retail sales in March grew more than expected, mainly driven by record revenues at gas stations due to war-driven gasoline prices and tax rebates. Traders expect a 30% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point rate cut this year.

International News


Trump: The ceasefire has been extended; the US military has been asked to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Trump posted on the social media platform "Truth Social," stating that given the deep divisions within the Iranian government, this was to be expected. He also noted that at the request of Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir and Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif, the US has temporarily suspended military action against Iran pending a unified negotiating plan drafted by the Iranian leadership and relevant representatives. To this end, the US has ordered the US military to maintain the blockade, and all other military forces to remain on full alert. The ceasefire will be extended until Iran submits its proposal and all negotiations between the two sides conclude.

Iranian media: Iran refuses to attend the second round of Iran-US talks.

According to a report by Iran's Tasnim News Agency on the evening of the 21st, Iran formally refused to attend the second round of Iran-US talks to be held in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on the 22nd. The report stated that Iran believes the US is obstructing any substantive agreement and that participating in the negotiations would be a waste of time. Iran also announced this through Pakistan, stating that in order to fully protect the rights of the Iranian people, the Iranian delegation will not travel to Pakistan on the 22nd. (Xinhua)

US media: Vance temporarily shelved his plans to travel to Pakistan to negotiate with Iran.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 21st that, according to multiple sources, US Vice President Vance has temporarily shelved his planned trip to Pakistan that day for negotiations with Iran, following a series of intensive meetings within the White House. The report stated that one source indicated that while Vance might still depart for Pakistan later this week, or even as early as that evening, President Trump is privately discussing the possibility of cancelling the trip altogether. This source pointed out that the reason is Iran's unwillingness to make concessions on the issue of enriched uranium. Another source stated that the decision was made because Iran refused to commit to participating in the negotiations. (Xinhua)

Iran claims US extension of ceasefire is a pretext for a surprise attack.

According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, early this morning (April 22) local time, Iran did not request an extension of the ceasefire. In response to US President Trump's earlier statement regarding an extension of the ceasefire, the Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament and advisor to former head of the negotiating delegation, Ghalibaf, stated on social media, "Trump's proposal to extend the ceasefire is meaningless. The loser has no right to set conditions. Continued blockade is tantamount to bombing and must be responded to militarily. Moreover, Trump's proposal for an extension is clearly to buy time to launch a surprise attack. Now is the time for Iran to seize the initiative." (CCTV International News)

SpaceX's debt climbed to $23 billion last year.

According to its IPO prospectus, SpaceX's debt increased by nearly two-thirds last year, climbing from $14 billion in 2024 to approximately $23 billion by the end of 2025. This significant increase in debt is primarily attributed to its acquisition of the artificial intelligence company xAI, which added substantial financial burden. The document shows that a large portion of the new debt stems from a lease agreement with Valor Equity Partners for the purchase of AI infrastructure equipment such as chips for xAI; SpaceX recorded this lease as $4.5 billion in debt on its balance sheet. In the risk disclosure section of its prospectus, SpaceX acknowledged that its high debt level could adversely affect its financial condition. SpaceX plans to issue approximately $75 billion worth of shares in this IPO, with the final offering size subject to adjustment based on market demand.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a comprehensive overhaul of the regional Federal Reserve Banks' operating system.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Waller outlined his vision for reforming the operational structure of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks on Tuesday, proposing to integrate core business functions such as human resources, finance, procurement, and information technology, moving away from the decentralized management of each regional bank. In prepared remarks for a Brookings Institution event in Washington, Waller stated, "We need to further centralize the management of various operations under a unified national business line, abandoning the previous model where each Federal Reserve Bank operated independently with a single-institutional mindset, and establishing a holistic, systemic approach to the Federal Reserve." As Federal Reserve officials are in a quiet period ahead of next week's monetary policy meeting, Waller did not comment on the economic outlook or interest rate trends during his remarks.

International Energy Agency: The US-Israel-Iraq war is causing the worst energy crisis in global history.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol stated on March 21 that the US-Israel-Iraq war is leading to the most severe energy crisis in global history. Birol noted that this energy crisis, compounded by fuel and natural gas supply issues stemming from the Ukraine crisis, has already had a significant impact. Approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The outbreak of the US-Israel-Iraq war disrupted shipping through the strait, triggering turmoil in the energy market. On March 11, the IEA announced that its 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to address the global oil supply shortage caused by the war. This is the largest coordinated oil reserve release by the IEA to date. (CCTV News)

Warsh stated that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is too large and that it will work with the Treasury to reduce its holdings.

Federal Reserve Chair nominee Warsh told senators Tuesday that he still wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet and will work with the Treasury Secretary to achieve this goal. "A huge balance sheet has become a common, recurring force," Warsh said at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. "It's quite detrimental and one of the reasons the Fed gets involved in politics," he said. "I think we need to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, and we have to find a way to reduce its size, working with the Treasury Secretary."

The United States expands its sanctions list against Iran, affecting individuals, businesses, and aviation assets.

On April 21 local time, according to documents from the U.S. Treasury Department, the Office of Foreign Assets Control updated its Specially Designated Nationals List, adding several Iranian individuals, companies, and aviation assets to the list, subject to sanctions related to counterterrorism and nonproliferation. Overall, these sanctions not only target entities within Iran but also cover its transnational business networks in the Middle East and surrounding regions, demonstrating the U.S.'s continued strengthening of restrictions on Iranian-related funds, logistics, and aviation systems. (CCTV News)

Federal Reserve Chair nominee Warsh emphasized independence but remained vague about the path of interest rates.

Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh refuted Democrats' concerns that he would become a "puppet" of the president, repeatedly emphasizing that if confirmed by the Senate, he would act as an independent decision-maker. During his Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday, Warsh stated that a series of reforms should be implemented to the Fed's decision-making process, including establishing a new framework for addressing inflation and improving communication with the public. However, he provided little detail and avoided questions regarding the path of short-term interest rates. He also stressed that the president has never asked him to commit to any specific interest rate decisions.

Domestic News


The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the fifth tranche of 2026 book-entry interest-bearing treasury bonds for the third time, with a total face value of 90 billion yuan.

The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue the 2026 Treasury Bonds (Fifth Tranche) for the third time. This reissue is a 10-year fixed-rate interest-bearing bond. The total face value of this reissue is 90 billion yuan, subject to competitive bidding by Class A members. The coupon rate is the same as the previously issued bonds of the same maturity, at 1.75%. The interest accrual date and redemption arrangements are the same as the previously issued bonds of the same maturity. Interest will accrue from February 25, 2026, with semi-annual payments on February 25th and August 25th each year (postponed if a holiday falls on that date), and principal repayment with the final interest payment will be made on February 25, 2036. The bidding period is from 10:35 AM to 11:35 AM on April 22, 2026.

The State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Industry".

The State Council recently issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Industry." The Opinions clarify that by 2030, the total scale of the service industry will reach 100 trillion yuan, more "Chinese service" brands will be cultivated, the global competitiveness and influence of the service industry will be significantly enhanced, and the people's sense of gain will continue to improve. The Opinions propose to strengthen weak links in the entire producer services chain, enhance the supporting role of science and technology services, strengthen the comprehensive competitiveness of modern logistics, accelerate the innovative development of software and information services, enhance the professional service capabilities of supply chain finance, actively develop energy-saving and environmental protection services, and strengthen and optimize business services. It also calls for upgrading the development level of key areas of the consumer services industry, increasing the supply of high-quality services for residents, improving the matching level of elderly care and childcare services, enhancing the professional capabilities of health services, and innovating cultural, tourism, and sports service models. (Xinhua News Agency)
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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4758.86

38.97

(0.83%)

XAG

78.029

1.377

(1.80%)

CONC

89.25

-0.42

(-0.47%)

OILC

98.17

-1.02

(-1.03%)

USD

98.377

-0.002

(-0.00%)

EURUSD

1.1742

-0.0000

(-0.00%)

GBPUSD

1.3509

0.0002

(0.02%)

USDCNH

6.8249

-0.0023

(-0.03%)

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