The US dollar index has risen for three consecutive days and may continue its rebound in the short term.
2026-04-23 14:10:53
On Thursday during Asian trading hours, the US dollar index (DXY) continued its upward trend, rising to around 98.70 , marking its third consecutive day of gains. The current strength of the dollar is primarily driven by the dual support of geopolitical risks and inflation expectations, while market sentiment remains generally cautious.
From a geopolitical perspective, tensions remain high in the Strait of Hormuz. As a critical global energy transport corridor, handling approximately 20% of crude oil shipments, the region has recently experienced frequent shipping disruptions and security incidents, significantly increasing market concerns about supply disruptions. Market surveys indicate that multiple vessels have been intercepted or even guided into the affected waters, further amplifying risk premiums.
Although the ceasefire agreement remains in effect, the confrontation between the two sides in the shipping and economic spheres has not eased. Related statements indicate that key transportation routes are unlikely to resume normal operation as long as the blockade measures are not lifted, meaning that geopolitical risks may persist for a long time. Meanwhile, the US has emphasized that there is currently no clear timetable for negotiations, further fueling market expectations of a protracted conflict.
Against this backdrop, the US dollar, as a major global safe-haven asset, continues to receive inflows of funds. Markets typically increase their holdings of US dollar assets to hedge against potential risks when uncertainty rises, which is a significant reason for the continuous rise in the US dollar index.
On the other hand, rising energy prices are reinforcing inflation expectations. With crude oil prices remaining high, the market is reassessing the global inflation path and lowering expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks. Surveys show that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range until at least September, an expectation that has significantly increased the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.
From an asset pricing perspective, the US dollar is currently benefiting from the dual drivers of "safe-haven demand + high interest rate expectations," a combination that typically provides strong support. Although some risk assets have rebounded due to expectations of easing tensions, the overall market remains in a phase dominated by uncertainty.
From a technical perspective, the US dollar index continues its upward trend on the daily chart, with a short-term bullish bias. Currently, the area around 99.20 forms a key resistance zone; a break above this level would open up further upside potential. On the downside, 98.00 is a significant support level; a break below this level could lead to a pullback to the 97.50 area. Momentum indicators show that bullish forces still hold the upper hand, but the upward momentum is slowing. On the 4-hour chart, the index exhibits a gentle upward channel structure, but a short-term technical correction is possible. If it fails to hold above 98.80 , a pullback to support is possible, but the overall structure remains bullish.
Editor's Summary : The US dollar index is currently in a typical risk-driven upward phase, with geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations being the dominant factors. Until the situation in the Strait of Hormuz eases, safe-haven demand will continue to support the dollar. Meanwhile, high energy prices are raising inflation and delaying expectations of interest rate cuts, further strengthening the dollar's advantage. In the short term, the dollar may maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern, but the risk of a technical correction should be noted. The medium-term trend will depend on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and changes in monetary policy expectations.
From a geopolitical perspective, tensions remain high in the Strait of Hormuz. As a critical global energy transport corridor, handling approximately 20% of crude oil shipments, the region has recently experienced frequent shipping disruptions and security incidents, significantly increasing market concerns about supply disruptions. Market surveys indicate that multiple vessels have been intercepted or even guided into the affected waters, further amplifying risk premiums.
Although the ceasefire agreement remains in effect, the confrontation between the two sides in the shipping and economic spheres has not eased. Related statements indicate that key transportation routes are unlikely to resume normal operation as long as the blockade measures are not lifted, meaning that geopolitical risks may persist for a long time. Meanwhile, the US has emphasized that there is currently no clear timetable for negotiations, further fueling market expectations of a protracted conflict.
Against this backdrop, the US dollar, as a major global safe-haven asset, continues to receive inflows of funds. Markets typically increase their holdings of US dollar assets to hedge against potential risks when uncertainty rises, which is a significant reason for the continuous rise in the US dollar index.
On the other hand, rising energy prices are reinforcing inflation expectations. With crude oil prices remaining high, the market is reassessing the global inflation path and lowering expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks. Surveys show that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range until at least September, an expectation that has significantly increased the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.
From an asset pricing perspective, the US dollar is currently benefiting from the dual drivers of "safe-haven demand + high interest rate expectations," a combination that typically provides strong support. Although some risk assets have rebounded due to expectations of easing tensions, the overall market remains in a phase dominated by uncertainty.
From a technical perspective, the US dollar index continues its upward trend on the daily chart, with a short-term bullish bias. Currently, the area around 99.20 forms a key resistance zone; a break above this level would open up further upside potential. On the downside, 98.00 is a significant support level; a break below this level could lead to a pullback to the 97.50 area. Momentum indicators show that bullish forces still hold the upper hand, but the upward momentum is slowing. On the 4-hour chart, the index exhibits a gentle upward channel structure, but a short-term technical correction is possible. If it fails to hold above 98.80 , a pullback to support is possible, but the overall structure remains bullish.
Editor's Summary : The US dollar index is currently in a typical risk-driven upward phase, with geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations being the dominant factors. Until the situation in the Strait of Hormuz eases, safe-haven demand will continue to support the dollar. Meanwhile, high energy prices are raising inflation and delaying expectations of interest rate cuts, further strengthening the dollar's advantage. In the short term, the dollar may maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern, but the risk of a technical correction should be noted. The medium-term trend will depend on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and changes in monetary policy expectations.
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