Analysts believe gold and silver have upside potential, but the Fed succession crisis coupled with the Iran conflict suggests a cautious and volatile short-term trend.
2026-04-24 10:39:39
The precious metals market is currently locked in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Long positions in gold and silver have recently declined significantly, leaving some room for upward movement in both metals. However, the ongoing geopolitical conflict in Iran and the uncertainty surrounding the succession of the Federal Reserve Chairman are jointly constraining market trends. In the short term, large funds will likely remain on the sidelines, making a clear breakthrough in the gold and silver market unlikely.
Two market analysts at StoneX Group have issued cautionary signals, suggesting that the current technical outlook for precious metals is fragile and that future price movements will be highly dependent on geopolitical developments and policy developments.
Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX, stated that recent declines in long positions in gold and silver, while absorbing some speculative over-positioning and creating potential upside for both precious metals, will still be constrained by multiple external factors. In recent weeks, the core volatility in the gold and silver markets has been closely linked to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. While silver generally follows gold's price movement, its price fluctuations have been more pronounced.
In her analysis report on Wednesday (April 22), O'Connell noted that news over the weekend announced the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and its continued openness during the ceasefire. Stimulated by this positive news, silver prices surged by 5% in a single day. However, the announcement was subsequently withdrawn, and the Strait of Hormuz is now closed again. The market generally believes this is a response from Iran to the continued US blockade. She stated that although negotiations are ongoing, significant differences remain between the two sides. Therefore, in the short term, gold and silver prices will maintain a cautious and volatile trading pattern, making it difficult to establish a clear trend.
Looking at the specific holdings data, O'Connell pointed out that in the last week of March, the active management of pure long positions in gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) declined at one point. Although it gradually recovered afterward, the total holdings were still 15 tons less than the 3,190 tons on March 17.
At the same time, although short positions increased, the increase was relatively limited, which caused the net long position range for gold to continue to narrow, remaining stable between 280 tons and 310 tons in the long term.
Silver's open interest trend showed a pattern of first high, then low, and then recovering. Long positions peaked in the last week of March and continued to decline until mid-April, before recovering slightly due to bargain hunting.
It's worth noting that while silver short sellers have continued to reduce and close their positions, the scale is far less than the previous concentrated liquidation of long positions. This has led to a slow decline in net long positions in silver, with the latest holdings at 1,830 tons, significantly lower than the one-year average of 4,126 tons. O'Connell added that against the backdrop of highly volatile geopolitical situations, professional trading institutions are unwilling to establish large positions, and exchange-traded funds have also been continuously reducing their holdings of precious metals in recent days. Short-term speculative funds are exhibiting a two-way game between long and short positions, resulting in significant market divergence.
In addition to the geopolitical conflict with Iran, domestic political developments in the United States, particularly the succession of the Federal Reserve Chairman, have further exacerbated uncertainty in the precious metals market. O'Connell analysts stated that Republican Senator Thomas Tillis of the Senate Banking Committee is continuing to obstruct Kevin Warsh from being sworn in as Federal Reserve Chairman on May 15, after Jay Powell's term ends.
The lawmaker explicitly stated that he would not lift the blockade on the appointment until the Justice Department's investigation into the overspending on the Federal Reserve building renovations concluded. Combined with President Trump's statements, he believes Powell concealed information from Congress. Trump has publicly declared that if Powell remains in office after May 15th, pursuant to the provisions of the Federal Reserve Act, he will remove him from office.
O'Connell warns that although industry experts generally believe the removal process is unlikely to be implemented, the final outcome three weeks from now remains to be seen, and this uncertainty will continue to keep the precious metals market on edge.
Razan Hilal, another market analyst at StoneX, also expressed caution on Wednesday, stating that the current technical outlook for gold and silver is fragile, with prices consolidating near key breakout levels and facing significant pressure. The recent rebound has failed to rebuild a strong bullish trend, making a directional reversal highly likely. The current market dynamics fully reflect the tug-of-war between market recovery intentions and weak fundamentals, and future price movements will heavily depend on confirmation from technical signals.
Hillar further analyzed that gold prices are currently consolidating below key resistance levels, mirroring the downward breakout pattern seen in early 2026. If gold fails to hold above $4880, and support levels weaken, the price is likely to face renewed downward pressure. Without a confirmed trend reversal through a decisive breakout, gold prices still face the risk of further declines. Silver, on the other hand, is currently consolidating within a range, and significant one-sided price movements are possible at any time. If silver prices break below the lower edge of the range around $75, it will trigger an accelerated decline, further testing lower support levels.
Overall , the precious metals market is currently affected by multiple uncertainties. While there is some upward potential, short-term resistance is evident. The trajectory of the Iranian geopolitical conflict, the final outcome of the Federal Reserve Chairman succession crisis, and confirmation from technical signals will jointly determine the future trend of gold and silver. In the short term, the market will likely maintain a cautious and volatile pattern, and investors should be wary of the risk of a market reversal.
Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex
At 10:38 AM Beijing time on April 24, spot gold was trading at $4684.70 per ounce.
Two market analysts at StoneX Group have issued cautionary signals, suggesting that the current technical outlook for precious metals is fragile and that future price movements will be highly dependent on geopolitical developments and policy developments.
Unusual activity in gold and silver positions suggests potential for further upside, but also presents significant obstacles.
Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX, stated that recent declines in long positions in gold and silver, while absorbing some speculative over-positioning and creating potential upside for both precious metals, will still be constrained by multiple external factors. In recent weeks, the core volatility in the gold and silver markets has been closely linked to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. While silver generally follows gold's price movement, its price fluctuations have been more pronounced.
In her analysis report on Wednesday (April 22), O'Connell noted that news over the weekend announced the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and its continued openness during the ceasefire. Stimulated by this positive news, silver prices surged by 5% in a single day. However, the announcement was subsequently withdrawn, and the Strait of Hormuz is now closed again. The market generally believes this is a response from Iran to the continued US blockade. She stated that although negotiations are ongoing, significant differences remain between the two sides. Therefore, in the short term, gold and silver prices will maintain a cautious and volatile trading pattern, making it difficult to establish a clear trend.
The portfolio structure is diverging, and investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
Looking at the specific holdings data, O'Connell pointed out that in the last week of March, the active management of pure long positions in gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) declined at one point. Although it gradually recovered afterward, the total holdings were still 15 tons less than the 3,190 tons on March 17.
At the same time, although short positions increased, the increase was relatively limited, which caused the net long position range for gold to continue to narrow, remaining stable between 280 tons and 310 tons in the long term.
Silver's open interest trend showed a pattern of first high, then low, and then recovering. Long positions peaked in the last week of March and continued to decline until mid-April, before recovering slightly due to bargain hunting.
It's worth noting that while silver short sellers have continued to reduce and close their positions, the scale is far less than the previous concentrated liquidation of long positions. This has led to a slow decline in net long positions in silver, with the latest holdings at 1,830 tons, significantly lower than the one-year average of 4,126 tons. O'Connell added that against the backdrop of highly volatile geopolitical situations, professional trading institutions are unwilling to establish large positions, and exchange-traded funds have also been continuously reducing their holdings of precious metals in recent days. Short-term speculative funds are exhibiting a two-way game between long and short positions, resulting in significant market divergence.
With two uncertainties overlapping, the market remains tense and unlikely to ease.
In addition to the geopolitical conflict with Iran, domestic political developments in the United States, particularly the succession of the Federal Reserve Chairman, have further exacerbated uncertainty in the precious metals market. O'Connell analysts stated that Republican Senator Thomas Tillis of the Senate Banking Committee is continuing to obstruct Kevin Warsh from being sworn in as Federal Reserve Chairman on May 15, after Jay Powell's term ends.
The lawmaker explicitly stated that he would not lift the blockade on the appointment until the Justice Department's investigation into the overspending on the Federal Reserve building renovations concluded. Combined with President Trump's statements, he believes Powell concealed information from Congress. Trump has publicly declared that if Powell remains in office after May 15th, pursuant to the provisions of the Federal Reserve Act, he will remove him from office.
O'Connell warns that although industry experts generally believe the removal process is unlikely to be implemented, the final outcome three weeks from now remains to be seen, and this uncertainty will continue to keep the precious metals market on edge.
With weak technical indicators, gold and silver prices are facing a directional decision.
Razan Hilal, another market analyst at StoneX, also expressed caution on Wednesday, stating that the current technical outlook for gold and silver is fragile, with prices consolidating near key breakout levels and facing significant pressure. The recent rebound has failed to rebuild a strong bullish trend, making a directional reversal highly likely. The current market dynamics fully reflect the tug-of-war between market recovery intentions and weak fundamentals, and future price movements will heavily depend on confirmation from technical signals.
Hillar further analyzed that gold prices are currently consolidating below key resistance levels, mirroring the downward breakout pattern seen in early 2026. If gold fails to hold above $4880, and support levels weaken, the price is likely to face renewed downward pressure. Without a confirmed trend reversal through a decisive breakout, gold prices still face the risk of further declines. Silver, on the other hand, is currently consolidating within a range, and significant one-sided price movements are possible at any time. If silver prices break below the lower edge of the range around $75, it will trigger an accelerated decline, further testing lower support levels.
Overall , the precious metals market is currently affected by multiple uncertainties. While there is some upward potential, short-term resistance is evident. The trajectory of the Iranian geopolitical conflict, the final outcome of the Federal Reserve Chairman succession crisis, and confirmation from technical signals will jointly determine the future trend of gold and silver. In the short term, the market will likely maintain a cautious and volatile pattern, and investors should be wary of the risk of a market reversal.
Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex
At 10:38 AM Beijing time on April 24, spot gold was trading at $4684.70 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
