According to APP, Goldman Sachs' latest analysis indicates that due to the significant reduction in oil production in the Gulf region caused by the conflict with Iran, most of the shut-in capacity may gradually recover within a few months after the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened. However, the recovery process may also face greater uncertainty and a longer period of delay. The bank estimates that approximately 14.5 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Gulf region was shut down in April, representing about 57% of pre-war supply. These shutdowns were primarily due to preventative measures and inventory management, rather than large-scale physical damage to oil fields, which provides relatively favorable conditions for subsequent recovery.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the recovery prospects for different Gulf oil-producing countries vary significantly. Saudi Arabia, with its relatively well-developed facilities and rapid response capabilities, may be able to increase production more quickly; while Iran and Iraq face additional challenges such as complex reservoir characteristics, aging infrastructure, and sanctions, making recovery more difficult. Average forecasts from external institutions indicate that Gulf oil-producing countries may restore approximately 70% of their shut-in production within three months and approximately 88% within six months. However, the bank also warns that prolonged shutdowns will significantly increase the risk of lasting damage to supply, including aging equipment, maintenance delays, and permanent loss of production capacity.

The global oil market is currently in a state of tense equilibrium. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for approximately 20% of global oil transportation, has seen its traffic disrupted, directly leading to a significant reduction in Gulf exports. Despite recent positive signs such as ceasefire negotiations, the actual recovery of traffic flow still needs time to be verified. Daan Struyven, co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, recently stated that in the baseline scenario, strait traffic is expected to gradually normalize around mid-May, which would keep Brent crude oil prices near current futures pricing; however, if the disruption continues, global visible oil inventories could fall to historic lows, significantly increasing the upside risk to prices.

Compared to historical oil price shocks, this round of events is larger in scale and has a more structural impact. Past crises have mostly been short-term geopolitical events, while this one involves long-term uncertainty regarding navigation across the Taiwan Strait, regional infrastructure repair, and production coordination among multiple countries, making the recovery path more complex. Institutions generally believe that oil prices will remain supported by the "war premium" in the short term, but the speed of recovery in the medium to long term will depend on diplomatic progress, the efficiency of infrastructure repair, and changes in global demand.

The following table compares Goldman Sachs' and external institutions' forecasts for the recovery of production from the Gulf Coast shutdown (unit: recovery rate %):

Overall, the recovery of Gulf oil supply involves more than just a rebound in production figures; it also involves the rebuilding of regional energy infrastructure and the rebalancing of global supply chains. The rapid response capabilities of countries like Saudi Arabia have helped stabilize market expectations, while structural challenges in Iran and Iraq may prolong the adjustment period. In the long term, the events have accelerated discussions on global energy diversification, including the development of alternative transportation routes and the optimization of inventory management.

Editor's Summary:
From an objective perspective, although the Gulf oil production shutdown was unprecedented in scale, its predominantly preventative shutdown left room for recovery. The speed of recovery depends on diplomatic progress and infrastructure repair, while the risk of lasting damage reminds the market to be wary of long-term supply uncertainty. The global energy landscape is rapidly evolving towards diversification and resilience.