Crude oil trading alert: Geopolitical tensions are gradually easing, and oil prices are maintaining a high level of fluctuation.
2026-04-27 09:15:29
WTI crude oil prices continued their rebound during Monday's Asian trading session, regaining buying support after last week's pullback. They are currently trading around $95.60, with a daily gain of over 1%. The core factor driving the price recovery is supply-side uncertainty, particularly the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have raised new concerns about the stability of global energy supplies.
US President Trump canceled his special envoy's planned visit to Islamabad, while the Iranian Foreign Minister has arrived in Pakistan, indicating that negotiations remain stalled. Significant differences remain among the parties surrounding the issue of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and geopolitical risks continue to escalate. It is worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport , and any obstruction to its passage would have a critical impact on global supply chains.
Meanwhile, current access to this strategic waterway remains restricted, and the US maritime blockade of Iranian ports poses a continued risk of disruption to crude oil transportation. This supply-side uncertainty directly reinforces the market's risk premium, providing support for oil prices.
However, from a macroeconomic perspective, the upside potential for oil prices is somewhat limited. The US dollar index has strengthened slightly recently, remaining firm supported by safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, with current market pricing indicating a greater than 80% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in 2026. This expectation is putting some downward pressure on dollar-denominated crude oil.
Furthermore, investors are increasingly focused on the potential rebound in inflation caused by rising energy prices. If oil prices continue to rise, it could push inflation back up, forcing major central banks to maintain a tight policy stance. This transmission path of "high oil prices—high inflation—high interest rates" is becoming an important pricing logic in the market.
Overall, amid supply concerns, market sentiment remains bullish on crude oil. Although a stronger dollar has limited short-term upside, funds are more inclined to buy on dips, indicating a relatively optimistic outlook for oil prices in the medium term.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, WTI crude oil maintains an upward trend with fluctuations, and prices continue to trade within a medium-term upward channel. Short-term support is around $92.50 , while key resistance is concentrated at the $98.00 level . In terms of momentum, bullish forces still dominate, but the pace of the rise has slowed. The 4-hour chart shows prices consolidating within a range, with short-term moving averages converging, suggesting the market is accumulating momentum for a new directional move. A decisive break above $98 could open up further upside potential, while a break below $92 could trigger a short-term pullback.
Editor's Summary:
The core driver of the current crude oil market remains supply-side uncertainty, particularly the risk premium resulting from restrictions on key Middle Eastern shipping routes. Against this backdrop, oil prices generally still possess upward momentum. However, a stronger dollar and a high-interest-rate environment are constraining oil prices, creating a volatile market characterized by "upward pressure and downward support." Future trends will depend on whether geopolitical tensions escalate further and changes in the policy paths of major central banks. Investors need to closely monitor the interplay between the progress of supply recovery and macroeconomic policy signals.
US President Trump canceled his special envoy's planned visit to Islamabad, while the Iranian Foreign Minister has arrived in Pakistan, indicating that negotiations remain stalled. Significant differences remain among the parties surrounding the issue of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and geopolitical risks continue to escalate. It is worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport , and any obstruction to its passage would have a critical impact on global supply chains.
Meanwhile, current access to this strategic waterway remains restricted, and the US maritime blockade of Iranian ports poses a continued risk of disruption to crude oil transportation. This supply-side uncertainty directly reinforces the market's risk premium, providing support for oil prices.
However, from a macroeconomic perspective, the upside potential for oil prices is somewhat limited. The US dollar index has strengthened slightly recently, remaining firm supported by safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, with current market pricing indicating a greater than 80% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in 2026. This expectation is putting some downward pressure on dollar-denominated crude oil.
Furthermore, investors are increasingly focused on the potential rebound in inflation caused by rising energy prices. If oil prices continue to rise, it could push inflation back up, forcing major central banks to maintain a tight policy stance. This transmission path of "high oil prices—high inflation—high interest rates" is becoming an important pricing logic in the market.
Overall, amid supply concerns, market sentiment remains bullish on crude oil. Although a stronger dollar has limited short-term upside, funds are more inclined to buy on dips, indicating a relatively optimistic outlook for oil prices in the medium term.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, WTI crude oil maintains an upward trend with fluctuations, and prices continue to trade within a medium-term upward channel. Short-term support is around $92.50 , while key resistance is concentrated at the $98.00 level . In terms of momentum, bullish forces still dominate, but the pace of the rise has slowed. The 4-hour chart shows prices consolidating within a range, with short-term moving averages converging, suggesting the market is accumulating momentum for a new directional move. A decisive break above $98 could open up further upside potential, while a break below $92 could trigger a short-term pullback.
Editor's Summary:
The core driver of the current crude oil market remains supply-side uncertainty, particularly the risk premium resulting from restrictions on key Middle Eastern shipping routes. Against this backdrop, oil prices generally still possess upward momentum. However, a stronger dollar and a high-interest-rate environment are constraining oil prices, creating a volatile market characterized by "upward pressure and downward support." Future trends will depend on whether geopolitical tensions escalate further and changes in the policy paths of major central banks. Investors need to closely monitor the interplay between the progress of supply recovery and macroeconomic policy signals.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
