Institutions: Gold prices face short-term pressure but the long-term bull market remains unchanged; prices are expected to stabilize above $5,000 this year.
2026-04-28 10:25:53
The gold market is currently maintaining a wide-range sideways trading pattern, with a continued weak trend. Influenced by short-term inflationary sentiment, market risk aversion has shifted, giving rise to hawkish interest rate expectations and further suppressing the upside potential of gold prices.
Despite the weak short-term market trend, well-known international investment institutions remain optimistic and clearly bullish on the future performance of gold. They predict that the spot price of gold is likely to stand above $5,000 per ounce within the year, with ample room for medium- to long-term growth.
In his latest precious metals research report, Lorenzo Portelli, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy at Amundi Investment Research Institute, stated that the ongoing tensions in Iran are causing energy market volatility, and the resulting energy supply shocks will only have a temporary impact on global inflation levels, making it difficult to create long-term, sustained inflationary pressures.
According to Portley, considering the market fundamentals over the next twelve months, the team is optimistic about the long-term investment value of gold and predicts that gold prices have upward momentum, with prices expected to gradually approach $5,500 per ounce in the future.
The turbulent situation in the Middle East has driven up energy prices, directly leading to a surge in overall inflation data. The annual inflation rate has risen to its highest level in nearly two years, reaching 3.3%. Excluding the more volatile energy sector, core price data has shown a relatively moderate trend, with core consumer prices remaining stable at 2.6% over the past twelve months.
Porterley added that while core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target, the pace of increase has slowed and there has been no acceleration. The stable and manageable core inflation trend significantly reduces the need for central banks to further tighten monetary policy. The inflation boost from the energy shock is likely to be a short-term, temporary phenomenon.
Investment demand for gold is not solely driven by US dollar interest rates. The recent nearly 15% drop in gold prices from their year-to-date highs indicates that various negative factors have already been fully priced in by the market. Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, and emerging market central banks are continuously optimizing their foreign exchange reserve structures and reducing reliance on traditional currencies. Therefore, the demand for gold as a strategic reserve asset remains stable in the long term.
Meanwhile, global sovereign debt continues to expand, and liquidity risks in the private credit market are gradually becoming more prominent, leading to a continued shift of funds towards hard assets like gold . In the event of escalating short-term geopolitical conflicts, some central banks may flexibly allocate their gold reserves to stabilize exchange rates, but this is merely a short-term regulatory measure and will not change gold's strategic importance.
Overall, gold prices have been volatile in the short term due to interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions, but its fundamentals remain solid. Portley emphasizes that gold is a high-quality safe-haven and store of value asset. While it cannot hedge against all market fluctuations, it effectively protects against systemic risks, currency devaluation, and the impact of global policy changes, and its long-term investment value remains prominent.
Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex
At 10:25 AM Beijing time on April 28, spot gold was trading at $4675.75 per ounce.
Despite the weak short-term market trend, well-known international investment institutions remain optimistic and clearly bullish on the future performance of gold. They predict that the spot price of gold is likely to stand above $5,000 per ounce within the year, with ample room for medium- to long-term growth.
Key viewpoint of the institution: The impact of energy shocks on inflation is short-term.
In his latest precious metals research report, Lorenzo Portelli, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy at Amundi Investment Research Institute, stated that the ongoing tensions in Iran are causing energy market volatility, and the resulting energy supply shocks will only have a temporary impact on global inflation levels, making it difficult to create long-term, sustained inflationary pressures.
According to Portley, considering the market fundamentals over the next twelve months, the team is optimistic about the long-term investment value of gold and predicts that gold prices have upward momentum, with prices expected to gradually approach $5,500 per ounce in the future.
Diverging inflation data eases pressure on central bank to tighten monetary policy.
The turbulent situation in the Middle East has driven up energy prices, directly leading to a surge in overall inflation data. The annual inflation rate has risen to its highest level in nearly two years, reaching 3.3%. Excluding the more volatile energy sector, core price data has shown a relatively moderate trend, with core consumer prices remaining stable at 2.6% over the past twelve months.
Porterley added that while core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target, the pace of increase has slowed and there has been no acceleration. The stable and manageable core inflation trend significantly reduces the need for central banks to further tighten monetary policy. The inflation boost from the energy shock is likely to be a short-term, temporary phenomenon.
Multiple underlying logics solidify long-term support for gold.
Investment demand for gold is not solely driven by US dollar interest rates. The recent nearly 15% drop in gold prices from their year-to-date highs indicates that various negative factors have already been fully priced in by the market. Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, and emerging market central banks are continuously optimizing their foreign exchange reserve structures and reducing reliance on traditional currencies. Therefore, the demand for gold as a strategic reserve asset remains stable in the long term.
Meanwhile, global sovereign debt continues to expand, and liquidity risks in the private credit market are gradually becoming more prominent, leading to a continued shift of funds towards hard assets like gold . In the event of escalating short-term geopolitical conflicts, some central banks may flexibly allocate their gold reserves to stabilize exchange rates, but this is merely a short-term regulatory measure and will not change gold's strategic importance.
Summarize
Overall, gold prices have been volatile in the short term due to interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions, but its fundamentals remain solid. Portley emphasizes that gold is a high-quality safe-haven and store of value asset. While it cannot hedge against all market fluctuations, it effectively protects against systemic risks, currency devaluation, and the impact of global policy changes, and its long-term investment value remains prominent.
Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex
At 10:25 AM Beijing time on April 28, spot gold was trading at $4675.75 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
