The UAE's formal withdrawal from OPEC poses a severe test to OPEC's long-term market control.
2026-04-29 02:30:02
On Tuesday (April 28), the United Arab Emirates announced that it will formally withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026. This is a heavy blow to the oil-producing alliance, especially against the backdrop of an unprecedented energy crisis triggered by the war with Iran and severe disruptions to Gulf exports, further exposing the deep divisions among the core Gulf countries.
The UAE's energy minister stated that the withdrawal was a strategic decision aimed at accelerating the fulfillment of global energy needs.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail bin Mohammed Al Mazrouei stated that the decision was a purely policy choice made after a comprehensive review of the national energy strategy. "This is a policy decision, made after a careful assessment of current and future production policies," Al Mazrouei emphasized, adding that the UAE did not consult with other countries beforehand.
He pointed out that global energy demand will continue to grow, and the UAE hopes to escape quota restrictions by exiting the market, allowing it to increase production more flexibly to meet market needs. The UAE has a production capacity of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day, making it one of the few OPEC countries with significant spare capacity.
OPEC's control has been significantly weakened, and idle capacity has become more concentrated and reduced.
As OPEC's third-largest oil producer, the UAE's withdrawal directly weakens the organization's control over global crude oil supply. Multiple institutions estimate that this move could reduce OPEC's share of global crude oil supply from approximately 30% to around 26%.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, noted: “The UAE’s withdrawal marks a significant shift within OPEC. Apart from Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members in the organization with substantial spare capacity and the ability to respond quickly to the market.”
Leon emphasized that the market impact may be limited in the short term due to the continued disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz, but the long-term effects will be more profound: "A structurally weakened OPEC, with its internally concentrated spare capacity further reduced, will find it increasingly difficult to flexibly adjust supply and stabilize prices."
Leon further analyzed that once removed from the quota system, the UAE has both the incentive and the ability to increase production, which will "raise broader questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia's role as a core market stabilizer" and could lead to a significant increase in global oil market volatility. "Saudi Arabia will now have to shoulder more of the responsibility for stabilizing prices, and the market has lost an important buffer."
This could trigger a chain reaction, with other members potentially following suit.
Qamar Energy CEO Robin Mills stated, "If now is the time to leave, then it really is. You might see other countries like Kazakhstan follow suit." Analysts worry that this withdrawal could be the starting point for further fragmentation of OPEC.
A "victory" for US President Trump? Saudi-UAE rift deepens.
Many analysts believe that the UAE's withdrawal can be seen as a major victory for US President Trump's long-standing criticism of OPEC. Trump has repeatedly accused OPEC of "blackmailing the world" through high oil prices.
ADCB Chief Economist Monica Malik pointed out that the normalization of the local geopolitical situation will open the door for the UAE to expand its global market share. Institutions such as Morningstar also believe this is an indirect victory for the US in its Middle East energy policy.
Meanwhile, the differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have become more public. Although once staunch allies, the two countries have long competed over oil policy, regional influence, and attracting foreign investment. This withdrawal is seen as the latest manifestation of the UAE's pursuit of greater strategic autonomy.
The market's short-term reaction is mild, but long-term uncertainty is rising.
Following the announcement of its withdrawal, international oil prices gave back some of their gains on Tuesday. Currently, due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+'s share of global production has fallen from approximately 48% in February to 44% in March, and this percentage is expected to continue declining in April and May. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that supply disruptions in the Gulf have significantly weakened OPEC+'s actual influence.
Overall, the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC is not only a landmark event in the current energy crisis, but also foreshadows a structural adjustment in the global oil market governance system. OPEC's cohesion and price stability will face a more severe test, while global consumers and importing countries may benefit in the long term—provided that geopolitical risks do not escalate further.
The UAE's energy minister stated that the withdrawal was a strategic decision aimed at accelerating the fulfillment of global energy needs.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail bin Mohammed Al Mazrouei stated that the decision was a purely policy choice made after a comprehensive review of the national energy strategy. "This is a policy decision, made after a careful assessment of current and future production policies," Al Mazrouei emphasized, adding that the UAE did not consult with other countries beforehand.
He pointed out that global energy demand will continue to grow, and the UAE hopes to escape quota restrictions by exiting the market, allowing it to increase production more flexibly to meet market needs. The UAE has a production capacity of approximately 4.8 million barrels per day, making it one of the few OPEC countries with significant spare capacity.
OPEC's control has been significantly weakened, and idle capacity has become more concentrated and reduced.
As OPEC's third-largest oil producer, the UAE's withdrawal directly weakens the organization's control over global crude oil supply. Multiple institutions estimate that this move could reduce OPEC's share of global crude oil supply from approximately 30% to around 26%.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, noted: “The UAE’s withdrawal marks a significant shift within OPEC. Apart from Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members in the organization with substantial spare capacity and the ability to respond quickly to the market.”
Leon emphasized that the market impact may be limited in the short term due to the continued disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz, but the long-term effects will be more profound: "A structurally weakened OPEC, with its internally concentrated spare capacity further reduced, will find it increasingly difficult to flexibly adjust supply and stabilize prices."
Leon further analyzed that once removed from the quota system, the UAE has both the incentive and the ability to increase production, which will "raise broader questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia's role as a core market stabilizer" and could lead to a significant increase in global oil market volatility. "Saudi Arabia will now have to shoulder more of the responsibility for stabilizing prices, and the market has lost an important buffer."
This could trigger a chain reaction, with other members potentially following suit.
Qamar Energy CEO Robin Mills stated, "If now is the time to leave, then it really is. You might see other countries like Kazakhstan follow suit." Analysts worry that this withdrawal could be the starting point for further fragmentation of OPEC.
A "victory" for US President Trump? Saudi-UAE rift deepens.
Many analysts believe that the UAE's withdrawal can be seen as a major victory for US President Trump's long-standing criticism of OPEC. Trump has repeatedly accused OPEC of "blackmailing the world" through high oil prices.
ADCB Chief Economist Monica Malik pointed out that the normalization of the local geopolitical situation will open the door for the UAE to expand its global market share. Institutions such as Morningstar also believe this is an indirect victory for the US in its Middle East energy policy.
Meanwhile, the differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have become more public. Although once staunch allies, the two countries have long competed over oil policy, regional influence, and attracting foreign investment. This withdrawal is seen as the latest manifestation of the UAE's pursuit of greater strategic autonomy.
The market's short-term reaction is mild, but long-term uncertainty is rising.
Following the announcement of its withdrawal, international oil prices gave back some of their gains on Tuesday. Currently, due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+'s share of global production has fallen from approximately 48% in February to 44% in March, and this percentage is expected to continue declining in April and May. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that supply disruptions in the Gulf have significantly weakened OPEC+'s actual influence.
Overall, the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC is not only a landmark event in the current energy crisis, but also foreshadows a structural adjustment in the global oil market governance system. OPEC's cohesion and price stability will face a more severe test, while global consumers and importing countries may benefit in the long term—provided that geopolitical risks do not escalate further.
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