Oil prices have reached a new high of $126, marking a new phase in geopolitical competition.
2026-05-01 16:59:51
On Friday, May 1st, during the European session, Brent crude oil futures for July delivery settled at $111.32 per barrel, up 0.35% from the previous trading day; WTI crude oil futures settled at $105.44, up 0.3%. This week, Brent crude rose 5.7% cumulatively, while WTI crude oil rose 11.7%. Previously, the Brent June contract touched $126.41, the highest level since March 2022. Since the geopolitical conflict at the end of February led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies have been disrupted, causing prices to continue to rise and market volatility to increase significantly.
The daily chart shows Brent crude oil trading within the Bollinger Bands (26,2), with the upper band at $114.69, the middle band at $102.42, and the lower band at $90.14. The price repeatedly touched the upper band and briefly rose above $111.77, reaching a high of $114.67 before slightly retreating, currently hovering around $111.32. The MACD (26,12,9) indicator shows the DIFF line at 3.45, the DEA line at 2.43, and the MACD histogram at 2.04, all in positive territory, indicating that bullish momentum remains dominant. Since rebounding from the low of $86.04, the cumulative increase has exceeded 30%, and historical volatility is in a high range.
The following table compares the current prices of major crude oil futures:
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transport artery, has been closed for two months, directly cutting off approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Although a ceasefire agreement took effect on April 8, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that expecting a quick resolution, regardless of who mediates, is unrealistic. Hundreds of oil tankers and cargo ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, and the restoration of navigation is a complex and time-consuming process, expected to take months to fully restore supply chains. The UN Secretary-General warned that if the disruption continues until mid-year, global economic growth will slow, inflationary pressures will rise, and tens of millions more people could face extreme poverty and hunger. Rising energy prices have already begun to translate into transportation and manufacturing costs; market supply and demand elasticity is low in the short term, and any further disruptions could further push up price levels.
US President Trump was briefed by the Central Command and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Thursday, discussing a range of options to break the deadlock in negotiations while maintaining the naval blockade to limit related oil revenues. The US is pushing allies to participate in building a joint force for maritime freedom, with New Zealand expressing support only on the premise of a sustainable ceasefire. Iran's Supreme Leader emphasized that he would safeguard its nuclear capabilities and control of the Strait of Hormuz, and would not relinquish related technologies. Trump stated that he would not allow any party to possess nuclear weapons and anticipated a significant drop in gasoline prices after the conflict ended. The stalemate between the two sides is widely interpreted by the market as a game of "waiting for the other side to make concessions first," which has prolonged the period of price uncertainty. Related economies face pressure from lost oil revenues, and their currencies show signs of depreciation, but they can maintain a basic confrontational stance in the short term. The international community continues to call for a diplomatic solution, and any signal of military escalation could amplify oil price volatility.
Combining technical and fundamental factors, current oil prices have rebounded significantly from their early April lows, with supply risk premiums becoming the dominant pricing factor. The recovery of global shipping will take time, and rising energy costs may continue to push up overall inflation expectations. Historically, similar events have shown that oil prices often remain high for months until clear signals of supply recovery emerge. Market participants need to closely monitor official negotiation statements, weekly crude oil inventory reports, and changes in import data from major consuming countries. The Bollinger Bands' expansion after narrowing indicates increased volatility, and while the MACD momentum is positive, the shortening of the histogram suggests a potential reversal. Overall, geopolitical uncertainty remains the main support for oil prices. If negotiations achieve a breakthrough, prices may see a significant pullback; if the stalemate continues, prices may challenge higher resistance levels. Changes in the futures market structure and the effects of suppressed global demand will jointly determine the medium-term trend.
Technical Characteristics and Volatility Analysis of Oil Prices
The daily chart shows Brent crude oil trading within the Bollinger Bands (26,2), with the upper band at $114.69, the middle band at $102.42, and the lower band at $90.14. The price repeatedly touched the upper band and briefly rose above $111.77, reaching a high of $114.67 before slightly retreating, currently hovering around $111.32. The MACD (26,12,9) indicator shows the DIFF line at 3.45, the DEA line at 2.43, and the MACD histogram at 2.04, all in positive territory, indicating that bullish momentum remains dominant. Since rebounding from the low of $86.04, the cumulative increase has exceeded 30%, and historical volatility is in a high range.
The following table compares the current prices of major crude oil futures:
| variety | Latest price (USD/barrel) | Daily changes | Weekly Changes | Recent highs (USD/barrel) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil | 111.32 | +0.35% | +5.7% | 126.41 |
| WTI crude oil | 105.44 | +0.3% | +11.7% | 110.93 |
Global supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transport artery, has been closed for two months, directly cutting off approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Although a ceasefire agreement took effect on April 8, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that expecting a quick resolution, regardless of who mediates, is unrealistic. Hundreds of oil tankers and cargo ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, and the restoration of navigation is a complex and time-consuming process, expected to take months to fully restore supply chains. The UN Secretary-General warned that if the disruption continues until mid-year, global economic growth will slow, inflationary pressures will rise, and tens of millions more people could face extreme poverty and hunger. Rising energy prices have already begun to translate into transportation and manufacturing costs; market supply and demand elasticity is low in the short term, and any further disruptions could further push up price levels.
Latest Developments in Policy Game and International Coordination Efforts
US President Trump was briefed by the Central Command and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Thursday, discussing a range of options to break the deadlock in negotiations while maintaining the naval blockade to limit related oil revenues. The US is pushing allies to participate in building a joint force for maritime freedom, with New Zealand expressing support only on the premise of a sustainable ceasefire. Iran's Supreme Leader emphasized that he would safeguard its nuclear capabilities and control of the Strait of Hormuz, and would not relinquish related technologies. Trump stated that he would not allow any party to possess nuclear weapons and anticipated a significant drop in gasoline prices after the conflict ended. The stalemate between the two sides is widely interpreted by the market as a game of "waiting for the other side to make concessions first," which has prolonged the period of price uncertainty. Related economies face pressure from lost oil revenues, and their currencies show signs of depreciation, but they can maintain a basic confrontational stance in the short term. The international community continues to call for a diplomatic solution, and any signal of military escalation could amplify oil price volatility.
Long-term impact assessment of global energy markets
Combining technical and fundamental factors, current oil prices have rebounded significantly from their early April lows, with supply risk premiums becoming the dominant pricing factor. The recovery of global shipping will take time, and rising energy costs may continue to push up overall inflation expectations. Historically, similar events have shown that oil prices often remain high for months until clear signals of supply recovery emerge. Market participants need to closely monitor official negotiation statements, weekly crude oil inventory reports, and changes in import data from major consuming countries. The Bollinger Bands' expansion after narrowing indicates increased volatility, and while the MACD momentum is positive, the shortening of the histogram suggests a potential reversal. Overall, geopolitical uncertainty remains the main support for oil prices. If negotiations achieve a breakthrough, prices may see a significant pullback; if the stalemate continues, prices may challenge higher resistance levels. Changes in the futures market structure and the effects of suppressed global demand will jointly determine the medium-term trend.
Frequently Asked Questions
Question 1: What is the core reason for the sharp rise in oil prices this week?
A: The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the primary cause of the disruption to approximately one-fifth of global energy supplies. Post-ceasefire negotiations stalled due to disagreements over the conditions for lifting the blockade, pushing Brent crude up to $111.32, a weekly gain of 5.7%. Official statements from Iran indicate a difficult short-term solution, amplifying the supply shock in an environment of inelastic demand.
Question 2: How long will the impact of supply disruptions on the recovery of global shipping and the economy last?
A: Hundreds of ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, and it is expected that navigation will resume in several months. The United Nations predicts that if the disruption continues until mid-year, it will reduce growth, push up inflation, and increase poverty. Rising costs have already been passed on to consumption and production, and markets are assessing long-term structural changes. Any breakthrough in negotiations could alter the recovery timeline.
Question 3: What potential risks do current technical indicators suggest for oil prices?
A: The price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at $114.69. The MACD is positive but momentum is weakening, suggesting potential profit-taking. A breakout in negotiations could lead to a rapid price pullback, while continued stalemate would provide stronger support. Traders should pay attention to inventory reports and demand data to determine turning points; historical experience shows that high-level consolidation is common after geopolitical events.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
