May 11 Financial Breakfast: Trump rejects Iran's peace proposal; Iran warns of opening new battlegrounds; gold prices fluctuate around the $4700 mark; US oil rises nearly 3%.
2026-05-11 07:24:19
On Monday (May 11, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold fell slightly, trading around $4,890 per ounce, with prices hovering around $4,700 per ounce. The situation in Iran continues to be volatile, with US President Trump rejecting Iran's latest response to a Middle East ceasefire proposal over the weekend, forcing the market to play a "headline frenzy." Affected by this, US crude oil opened nearly 3% higher, trading around $98.22 per barrel, and may test the $100 per barrel mark during the day.
Boosted by gains in AI-related stocks such as Nvidia and SanDisk, as well as stronger-than-expected jobs data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices hit record highs on Friday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 55% in the second quarter. The two major indices repeatedly broke records last week as investors focused on strong corporate earnings reports, temporarily setting aside concerns about the Middle East conflict driving up oil prices. S&P 500 companies are expected to see earnings growth of nearly 29% year-over-year in the first quarter.
U.S. jobs growth in April exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. Traders expect the benchmark interest rate to remain between 3.50% and 3.75% by the end of the year. The S&P 500 rose 0.84% to close at 7398.93 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.71% to close at 26247.08 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.02% to close at 49609.16 points, with the technology sector surging 2.7%. Both major indexes closed higher for the sixth consecutive week, marking their longest winning streak since October 2024, with year-to-date gains of 8% and 13%, respectively.
Despite clashes between the US and Iran in the Gulf and Brent crude oil prices rising above $100 a barrel, optimistic corporate earnings helped investors ignore geopolitical risks, with 83% of the 440 S&P companies that have reported earnings exceeding expectations; however, Expedia saw a 9% drop in demand due to the Middle East conflict.
Gold prices rose slightly on Friday, marking a weekly gain. Spot gold closed up 0.6% at $4,715.18 per ounce on Friday, with a cumulative increase of 2.15% for the week, boosted by market optimism that the US-Iran conflict might end, easing concerns about inflation and interest rates.
The director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures pointed out that gold is currently behaving more like a risk asset, and its rebound is closely related to the prospect of easing tensions in Iran. The decline in energy prices has increased the likelihood of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
A weaker dollar made gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies, and lower energy prices eased inflation concerns. In addition, US job growth in April exceeded expectations, briefly extending gold's gains after the data was released. Spot silver rose 2.3% to $80.3, platinum rose 1.3% to $2047.88, both posting weekly gains, while palladium fell 0.5% to $1487.71.
Brent crude oil prices surged as much as 3% on Friday after airstrikes between the US and Iran disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but gains later narrowed as traders hoped for a longer ceasefire. Brent crude closed up 1.23% at $101.29 a barrel, while WTI crude closed up 0.64% at $95.42, but both benchmarks fell more than 6% last week.
US President Trump rejected Iran's latest response to his Middle East ceasefire proposal over the weekend, posting on social media that Iran's response was "completely unacceptable." A partner at Again Capital stated that the market is on the verge of a breakthrough in negotiations or a resurgence of hostilities, with a general consensus that an agreement will be reached followed by a 30-day period for finalizing details. Intraday trading saw prices fluctuate wildly, like a tennis ball, with analysts at Price Futures Group describing the market as still playing a "headline frenzy."
Analysts at PVM Oil Associates pointed out that issues such as when Gulf supply will recover, inventory levels during peak gasoline consumption, and the prospect of sanctions remain unresolved. The founder of Vanda Insights believes that the US government continues to overemphasize the prospect of easing tensions, and the optimistic market firmly believes this, with each rebound being slow and incomplete, making these "false moves" at least to some extent effective.
The dollar weakened on Friday, falling 0.4% to 97.85, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. Earlier in the week, it hit a low of 97.62, its lowest level since February 27 (the day before the war began), influenced by cautious optimism among investors that the US-Iran conflict could be resolved quickly. Despite renewed clashes between the two countries and another attack on the UAE, US President Trump stated that the ceasefire remained in effect.
Ballinger Group analysts noted that the US is trying to avoid escalation and hopes the ceasefire will remain unaffected. Morgan Stanley strategists, in a report, expressed a bearish view on the dollar index, believing that rising risk appetite and increased risk premiums will push the dollar index down to 95 in the coming months. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.17808, on track for a slight gain last week.
Despite the stronger-than-expected increase in US jobs in April and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, the US dollar reacted mildly. Analysts believe that the volatility of non-farm payroll data should prevent the market from focusing too much on a single month's data.
The dollar fell 0.2% against the yen to 156.695, as intervention and verbal warnings from Tokyo curbed the yen sell-off. Japan’s chief monetary diplomat said there was no limit to the frequency of intervention and that daily contact was maintained with the United States. However, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group pointed out that a renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict could increase the risk of soaring oil prices, thereby undermining Japan’s efforts to prevent the dollar from breaking through 160 against the yen.
High-risk currencies rose: the pound sterling rose 0.6% to US$1.3626, boosted by British Prime Minister Starmer's statement that he would not resign; the Australian dollar rose 0.5% to US$0.72455; and the New Zealand dollar rose 0.4% to US$0.59615, all driven by a rebound in risk appetite.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 93.8%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 93.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 6.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 88.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 10.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.3%.
Sources say Pakistan has relayed Iran's response to the United States.
On May 10 local time, Pakistani sources stated that Pakistan had conveyed Iran's response to the US's proposed end-of-war plan to the United States. Earlier that day, Iranian sources, citing an informed source, reported that Iran had formally submitted its response to the latest US proposal aimed at ending the war to Pakistani mediators. The current phase of negotiations will focus entirely on halting hostilities in the region. (CCTV News)
U.S. Energy Secretary Wright signals: The Trump administration is considering suspending fuel taxes.
When asked if he supported suspending the federal fuel tax, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the Trump administration supports "all measures that can lower oil prices." In an interview with NBC News, he said the U.S. is "constantly exploring different options." When asked if President Donald Trump would consider suspending the federal fuel tax, he responded, "We are open to all options."
The first batch of evacuees from the cruise ship "Hundius," which was involved in the COVID-19 outbreak, have traveled to Madrid by military aircraft.
On May 10th, local time, the first group of Spanish passengers and crew evacuated from the cruise ship "Hondia" departed from the southern airport of Tenerife aboard a military aircraft bound for Madrid, the Spanish capital. It is understood that these evacuees underwent rigorous initial medical assessments at the port of Granadia in Tenerife. To ensure safety during the transfer, all evacuees wore protective masks and blue protective suits on the transport bus and aircraft, and the transport vehicles were escorted by the Spanish Civil Guard throughout the journey. Spanish Health Minister Monica García confirmed at the evacuation site that the evacuees were currently in stable condition and showed no symptoms of infection. The military aircraft was scheduled to land at the Torrejón de Aldos Air Base in Madrid. Upon landing, the personnel would be directly transferred to the Gómez Ulla Central Defense Hospital, where they would undergo three weeks of medical isolation and further virus testing. Currently, the repatriation of foreign passengers from the port of Tenerife is still underway. Passengers from the Netherlands, Germany, Greece, and other countries will be evacuated gradually after screening. The last group of evacuated Australian passengers is expected to be repatriated tomorrow. The Spanish government stated that after all personnel have been evacuated, the cruise ship will depart the Canary Islands for Rotterdam, Netherlands, for thorough disinfection. (CCTV News)
Iranian Navy Commander: Domestically built light submarines are on standby in the Strait of Hormuz
On the 10th local time, Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Ilani stated that Iran's domestically built light submarines are on standby in the Strait of Hormuz, ready to conduct proliferation deployments and carry out relevant missions, depending on the level of threat, combat capabilities, and needs. (CCTV News)
Iran says it will enter a new operational zone if the enemy attacks again.
On May 10, Iranian Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia stated that if the enemy miscalculates again and launches an invasion of Iran, it will face other unexpected options. These options include more advanced new equipment, entirely new methods of warfare, and most importantly—new domains of warfare. He said, "This means that the war will enter domains that the enemy has not anticipated or considered in their plans, domains in which we have the capability to catch the enemy off guard." (CCTV International News)
US media: Israel establishes secret base in Iraqi desert targeting Iran
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 9th, citing US officials and sources, that Israel had established a secret military base in the Iraqi desert for airstrikes against Iran and launched airstrikes against Iraqi forces that "nearly discovered" the base in the early stages of the conflict with Iran. The report, citing sources, stated that the base was established shortly before the US-Israel military action against Iran this year, and that the US was "aware" of it. The base also serves as a logistical hub for the Israeli Air Force. The report stated that Israel has deployed search and rescue teams at the base. According to sources, Israeli Air Force special forces capable of conducting assault missions are also stationed at the base. (Xinhua)
Republican Senator Urges Trump to Resume Project Freedom Escort Operation in Strait of Hormuz <br /> Republican Senator Roger Wicker has publicly urged President Trump to restart Project Freedom, an operation aimed at clearing ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump suspended the program last week to allow room for diplomatic negotiations. Wicker calls for a swift resumption of escort operations to alleviate the pressure on global energy supplies caused by the strait's blockade. Currently, the US and Iran are still negotiating to end the war, but shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely at a standstill. Wicker's statement reflects the strategic anxiety of some Republican lawmakers regarding accelerating the reopening of the strait.
More than 40 countries met on Monday to plan escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire.
More than 40 countries will meet on Monday to discuss a British- and French-led escort mission aimed at stabilizing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire. The countries are expected to provide capabilities including minesweeping, escort, and air patrols. British Defense Secretary Healy stated, "We are translating diplomatic agreements into concrete military plans to restore confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz." He will co-chair Monday's meeting with French Defense Minister Vautland. Britain will deploy the HMS Dragon destroyer to participate in the mission. Trump has previously criticized Britain and other NATO countries for their reluctance to commit naval forces to help restore navigation through the Strait, mocking aircraft carriers as "toys" and specifically criticizing Britain for proposing to send aircraft carriers far later than the time the US actually needed.
my country's economic growth momentum is surging.
On May 10, the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission released leading economic indicators for April, showing a steady upward trend in the economy. In terms of investment, investment in digital infrastructure saw rapid growth, with investment accelerating towards new sectors. The latest data from the National Information Center shows that in April, capital investment in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots increased by 175.2% year-on-year. The value of bids for infrastructure projects in areas such as data, computing power, and networks increased by 61.7% year-on-year, continuously activating new drivers of economic growth. With the continued effectiveness of policies such as fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand and the trade-in program for consumer goods, coupled with the spring break for primary and secondary school students and the surge in spring outings in many places, the consumer market continued its positive trend of scale growth and structural optimization in April. Search volume for keywords such as "spring outing" and "flower viewing" increased by 118.1% and 43.4% respectively month-on-month in April; the consumption around scenic spots, city parks, greenways, and other outdoor locations further increased compared to last year, with the demand for spring outings driving the concentration of instant retail destinations in parks and scenic spots, resulting in a 10.5% month-on-month increase in orders. In terms of foreign trade, exports of high value-added products such as new energy vehicles and consumer electronics performed well in April, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality in foreign trade operations. (CCTV Finance)
Key Focus Today
stock market
Boosted by gains in AI-related stocks such as Nvidia and SanDisk, as well as stronger-than-expected jobs data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices hit record highs on Friday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 55% in the second quarter. The two major indices repeatedly broke records last week as investors focused on strong corporate earnings reports, temporarily setting aside concerns about the Middle East conflict driving up oil prices. S&P 500 companies are expected to see earnings growth of nearly 29% year-over-year in the first quarter.
U.S. jobs growth in April exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. Traders expect the benchmark interest rate to remain between 3.50% and 3.75% by the end of the year. The S&P 500 rose 0.84% to close at 7398.93 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.71% to close at 26247.08 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.02% to close at 49609.16 points, with the technology sector surging 2.7%. Both major indexes closed higher for the sixth consecutive week, marking their longest winning streak since October 2024, with year-to-date gains of 8% and 13%, respectively.
Despite clashes between the US and Iran in the Gulf and Brent crude oil prices rising above $100 a barrel, optimistic corporate earnings helped investors ignore geopolitical risks, with 83% of the 440 S&P companies that have reported earnings exceeding expectations; however, Expedia saw a 9% drop in demand due to the Middle East conflict.
Gold Market
Gold prices rose slightly on Friday, marking a weekly gain. Spot gold closed up 0.6% at $4,715.18 per ounce on Friday, with a cumulative increase of 2.15% for the week, boosted by market optimism that the US-Iran conflict might end, easing concerns about inflation and interest rates.
The director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures pointed out that gold is currently behaving more like a risk asset, and its rebound is closely related to the prospect of easing tensions in Iran. The decline in energy prices has increased the likelihood of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
A weaker dollar made gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies, and lower energy prices eased inflation concerns. In addition, US job growth in April exceeded expectations, briefly extending gold's gains after the data was released. Spot silver rose 2.3% to $80.3, platinum rose 1.3% to $2047.88, both posting weekly gains, while palladium fell 0.5% to $1487.71.
oil market
Brent crude oil prices surged as much as 3% on Friday after airstrikes between the US and Iran disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but gains later narrowed as traders hoped for a longer ceasefire. Brent crude closed up 1.23% at $101.29 a barrel, while WTI crude closed up 0.64% at $95.42, but both benchmarks fell more than 6% last week.
US President Trump rejected Iran's latest response to his Middle East ceasefire proposal over the weekend, posting on social media that Iran's response was "completely unacceptable." A partner at Again Capital stated that the market is on the verge of a breakthrough in negotiations or a resurgence of hostilities, with a general consensus that an agreement will be reached followed by a 30-day period for finalizing details. Intraday trading saw prices fluctuate wildly, like a tennis ball, with analysts at Price Futures Group describing the market as still playing a "headline frenzy."
Analysts at PVM Oil Associates pointed out that issues such as when Gulf supply will recover, inventory levels during peak gasoline consumption, and the prospect of sanctions remain unresolved. The founder of Vanda Insights believes that the US government continues to overemphasize the prospect of easing tensions, and the optimistic market firmly believes this, with each rebound being slow and incomplete, making these "false moves" at least to some extent effective.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar weakened on Friday, falling 0.4% to 97.85, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. Earlier in the week, it hit a low of 97.62, its lowest level since February 27 (the day before the war began), influenced by cautious optimism among investors that the US-Iran conflict could be resolved quickly. Despite renewed clashes between the two countries and another attack on the UAE, US President Trump stated that the ceasefire remained in effect.
Ballinger Group analysts noted that the US is trying to avoid escalation and hopes the ceasefire will remain unaffected. Morgan Stanley strategists, in a report, expressed a bearish view on the dollar index, believing that rising risk appetite and increased risk premiums will push the dollar index down to 95 in the coming months. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.17808, on track for a slight gain last week.
Despite the stronger-than-expected increase in US jobs in April and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, the US dollar reacted mildly. Analysts believe that the volatility of non-farm payroll data should prevent the market from focusing too much on a single month's data.
The dollar fell 0.2% against the yen to 156.695, as intervention and verbal warnings from Tokyo curbed the yen sell-off. Japan’s chief monetary diplomat said there was no limit to the frequency of intervention and that daily contact was maintained with the United States. However, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group pointed out that a renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict could increase the risk of soaring oil prices, thereby undermining Japan’s efforts to prevent the dollar from breaking through 160 against the yen.
High-risk currencies rose: the pound sterling rose 0.6% to US$1.3626, boosted by British Prime Minister Starmer's statement that he would not resign; the Australian dollar rose 0.5% to US$0.72455; and the New Zealand dollar rose 0.4% to US$0.59615, all driven by a rebound in risk appetite.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 93.8%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 93.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 6.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 88.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 10.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.3%.
Sources say Pakistan has relayed Iran's response to the United States.
On May 10 local time, Pakistani sources stated that Pakistan had conveyed Iran's response to the US's proposed end-of-war plan to the United States. Earlier that day, Iranian sources, citing an informed source, reported that Iran had formally submitted its response to the latest US proposal aimed at ending the war to Pakistani mediators. The current phase of negotiations will focus entirely on halting hostilities in the region. (CCTV News)
U.S. Energy Secretary Wright signals: The Trump administration is considering suspending fuel taxes.
When asked if he supported suspending the federal fuel tax, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the Trump administration supports "all measures that can lower oil prices." In an interview with NBC News, he said the U.S. is "constantly exploring different options." When asked if President Donald Trump would consider suspending the federal fuel tax, he responded, "We are open to all options."
The first batch of evacuees from the cruise ship "Hundius," which was involved in the COVID-19 outbreak, have traveled to Madrid by military aircraft.
On May 10th, local time, the first group of Spanish passengers and crew evacuated from the cruise ship "Hondia" departed from the southern airport of Tenerife aboard a military aircraft bound for Madrid, the Spanish capital. It is understood that these evacuees underwent rigorous initial medical assessments at the port of Granadia in Tenerife. To ensure safety during the transfer, all evacuees wore protective masks and blue protective suits on the transport bus and aircraft, and the transport vehicles were escorted by the Spanish Civil Guard throughout the journey. Spanish Health Minister Monica García confirmed at the evacuation site that the evacuees were currently in stable condition and showed no symptoms of infection. The military aircraft was scheduled to land at the Torrejón de Aldos Air Base in Madrid. Upon landing, the personnel would be directly transferred to the Gómez Ulla Central Defense Hospital, where they would undergo three weeks of medical isolation and further virus testing. Currently, the repatriation of foreign passengers from the port of Tenerife is still underway. Passengers from the Netherlands, Germany, Greece, and other countries will be evacuated gradually after screening. The last group of evacuated Australian passengers is expected to be repatriated tomorrow. The Spanish government stated that after all personnel have been evacuated, the cruise ship will depart the Canary Islands for Rotterdam, Netherlands, for thorough disinfection. (CCTV News)
Iranian Navy Commander: Domestically built light submarines are on standby in the Strait of Hormuz
On the 10th local time, Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Ilani stated that Iran's domestically built light submarines are on standby in the Strait of Hormuz, ready to conduct proliferation deployments and carry out relevant missions, depending on the level of threat, combat capabilities, and needs. (CCTV News)
Iran says it will enter a new operational zone if the enemy attacks again.
On May 10, Iranian Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia stated that if the enemy miscalculates again and launches an invasion of Iran, it will face other unexpected options. These options include more advanced new equipment, entirely new methods of warfare, and most importantly—new domains of warfare. He said, "This means that the war will enter domains that the enemy has not anticipated or considered in their plans, domains in which we have the capability to catch the enemy off guard." (CCTV International News)
US media: Israel establishes secret base in Iraqi desert targeting Iran
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 9th, citing US officials and sources, that Israel had established a secret military base in the Iraqi desert for airstrikes against Iran and launched airstrikes against Iraqi forces that "nearly discovered" the base in the early stages of the conflict with Iran. The report, citing sources, stated that the base was established shortly before the US-Israel military action against Iran this year, and that the US was "aware" of it. The base also serves as a logistical hub for the Israeli Air Force. The report stated that Israel has deployed search and rescue teams at the base. According to sources, Israeli Air Force special forces capable of conducting assault missions are also stationed at the base. (Xinhua)
Republican Senator Urges Trump to Resume Project Freedom Escort Operation in Strait of Hormuz <br /> Republican Senator Roger Wicker has publicly urged President Trump to restart Project Freedom, an operation aimed at clearing ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump suspended the program last week to allow room for diplomatic negotiations. Wicker calls for a swift resumption of escort operations to alleviate the pressure on global energy supplies caused by the strait's blockade. Currently, the US and Iran are still negotiating to end the war, but shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely at a standstill. Wicker's statement reflects the strategic anxiety of some Republican lawmakers regarding accelerating the reopening of the strait.
More than 40 countries met on Monday to plan escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire.
More than 40 countries will meet on Monday to discuss a British- and French-led escort mission aimed at stabilizing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire. The countries are expected to provide capabilities including minesweeping, escort, and air patrols. British Defense Secretary Healy stated, "We are translating diplomatic agreements into concrete military plans to restore confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz." He will co-chair Monday's meeting with French Defense Minister Vautland. Britain will deploy the HMS Dragon destroyer to participate in the mission. Trump has previously criticized Britain and other NATO countries for their reluctance to commit naval forces to help restore navigation through the Strait, mocking aircraft carriers as "toys" and specifically criticizing Britain for proposing to send aircraft carriers far later than the time the US actually needed.
Domestic News
my country's economic growth momentum is surging.
On May 10, the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission released leading economic indicators for April, showing a steady upward trend in the economy. In terms of investment, investment in digital infrastructure saw rapid growth, with investment accelerating towards new sectors. The latest data from the National Information Center shows that in April, capital investment in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots increased by 175.2% year-on-year. The value of bids for infrastructure projects in areas such as data, computing power, and networks increased by 61.7% year-on-year, continuously activating new drivers of economic growth. With the continued effectiveness of policies such as fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand and the trade-in program for consumer goods, coupled with the spring break for primary and secondary school students and the surge in spring outings in many places, the consumer market continued its positive trend of scale growth and structural optimization in April. Search volume for keywords such as "spring outing" and "flower viewing" increased by 118.1% and 43.4% respectively month-on-month in April; the consumption around scenic spots, city parks, greenways, and other outdoor locations further increased compared to last year, with the demand for spring outings driving the concentration of instant retail destinations in parks and scenic spots, resulting in a 10.5% month-on-month increase in orders. In terms of foreign trade, exports of high value-added products such as new energy vehicles and consumer electronics performed well in April, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality in foreign trade operations. (CCTV Finance)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
