Amidst suspicions of insider trading involving a $7 billion bet on the oil market and the US-Iran conflict, speculation persists.
2026-05-11 13:09:22
During the escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, a staggering $7 billion in precise futures betting emerged, encompassing Brent, WTI crude oil, and refined oil products from Europe and the US. Many large transactions were precisely placed just minutes before major diplomatic and military announcements, subsequently causing oil prices to plummet. Numerous newly registered accounts exhibited abnormally high win rates, and some even predicted military actions in advance using digital forecasting. Industry insiders and experts have pointed to insider trading allegations, while regulatory investigations have been hampered by the rise of new trading platforms, making such violations increasingly difficult to regulate.
Previous reports indicated that over $1 billion was being used to anticipate major developments in the US-Iran situation through traditional crude oil futures and digital forecasting markets. The trading accounts were mostly newly established and focused solely on Iran-related events, achieving a success rate as high as 93%. Subsequent comprehensive statistics revealed that the initial figures were only the tip of the iceberg; if Brent crude, WTI crude, European diesel, and US gasoline futures were included, the total betting volume had climbed to $7 billion.
These large-scale concentrated transactions were mainly distributed across four key trading days, with positions generally established 15 to 20 minutes before the release of major news. Each time the official announcement was made, oil prices experienced a double-digit drop. On March 23, between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT (equivalent to 6:49 and 6:50 PM Beijing time), the market completed its first massive transaction. Trump subsequently announced a delay in the strike on Iranian energy infrastructure, intending to leave room for negotiations, immediately triggering a sharp drop in oil prices of up to 15%.
On April 7, April 17, and April 21, three more multi-billion dollar sell-offs occurred, corresponding to key milestones such as the US and Iran announcing a short ceasefire, the full resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the indefinite extension of the ceasefire. The transactions were all conducted after settlement when market liquidity was low. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil generally fell by 9% to 12% in a single day, resulting in huge profit potential for investors.
In fact, suspicious transactions related to the US-Iran situation had already been quietly orchestrated weeks before the official announcement. On the evening of February 27, nearly 150 new accounts appeared in the digital prediction market, with a total betting amount exceeding $855,000, accurately predicting that the US would launch military action against Iran within 24 hours. Many accounts were specifically set up to bet on the Iranian situation. Among them, an anonymous user, using insider information, placed an order 71 minutes before the relevant news was released, turning an initial principal of $87,000 into $533,000, a staggering profit.
Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that the series of precise trades highly likely stemmed from an insider leak. The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have launched investigations to determine whether the parties involved illegally obtained non-public military and diplomatic information.
Craig Holman, a government affairs consultant for the Public Citizens Agency, expressed strong skepticism about the investigative capabilities and willingness of regulatory agencies, citing a significant loss of investigators and a near standstill in enforcement efforts at core offices. Meanwhile, market analysts point out that the rapid rise of event-predictive digital trading platforms, coupled with the complexity of related legal definitions, has significantly increased the difficulty of identifying and prosecuting insider trading. Individuals possessing substantial non-public information can leverage these new platforms to complete large-scale transactions before the information becomes public, making effective regulatory oversight difficult.
Overall, the 7 billion yuan in funds precisely timed each key policy turning point between the US and Iran, with highly unusual timing and scale, making insider trading highly suspect. Coupled with the earlier accurate predictions of military actions by niche platforms, a profit chain has already formed. Furthermore, the combination of insufficient regulatory manpower, weakened enforcement, and new trading platforms circumventing regulations presents significant practical challenges to combating insider trading in the cross-border oil market.
Huge bets surface, precisely timed to major policy milestones
Previous reports indicated that over $1 billion was being used to anticipate major developments in the US-Iran situation through traditional crude oil futures and digital forecasting markets. The trading accounts were mostly newly established and focused solely on Iran-related events, achieving a success rate as high as 93%. Subsequent comprehensive statistics revealed that the initial figures were only the tip of the iceberg; if Brent crude, WTI crude, European diesel, and US gasoline futures were included, the total betting volume had climbed to $7 billion.
These large-scale concentrated transactions were mainly distributed across four key trading days, with positions generally established 15 to 20 minutes before the release of major news. Each time the official announcement was made, oil prices experienced a double-digit drop. On March 23, between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT (equivalent to 6:49 and 6:50 PM Beijing time), the market completed its first massive transaction. Trump subsequently announced a delay in the strike on Iranian energy infrastructure, intending to leave room for negotiations, immediately triggering a sharp drop in oil prices of up to 15%.
On April 7, April 17, and April 21, three more multi-billion dollar sell-offs occurred, corresponding to key milestones such as the US and Iran announcing a short ceasefire, the full resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the indefinite extension of the ceasefire. The transactions were all conducted after settlement when market liquidity was low. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil generally fell by 9% to 12% in a single day, resulting in huge profit potential for investors.
Early planning has already revealed that niche platforms harbor hidden profit-making channels.
In fact, suspicious transactions related to the US-Iran situation had already been quietly orchestrated weeks before the official announcement. On the evening of February 27, nearly 150 new accounts appeared in the digital prediction market, with a total betting amount exceeding $855,000, accurately predicting that the US would launch military action against Iran within 24 hours. Many accounts were specifically set up to bet on the Iranian situation. Among them, an anonymous user, using insider information, placed an order 71 minutes before the relevant news was released, turning an initial principal of $87,000 into $533,000, a staggering profit.
Senator Elizabeth Warren stated that the series of precise trades highly likely stemmed from an insider leak. The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have launched investigations to determine whether the parties involved illegally obtained non-public military and diplomatic information.
The regulatory system has shortcomings, and the governance of insider trading is in trouble.
Craig Holman, a government affairs consultant for the Public Citizens Agency, expressed strong skepticism about the investigative capabilities and willingness of regulatory agencies, citing a significant loss of investigators and a near standstill in enforcement efforts at core offices. Meanwhile, market analysts point out that the rapid rise of event-predictive digital trading platforms, coupled with the complexity of related legal definitions, has significantly increased the difficulty of identifying and prosecuting insider trading. Individuals possessing substantial non-public information can leverage these new platforms to complete large-scale transactions before the information becomes public, making effective regulatory oversight difficult.
Summarize
Overall, the 7 billion yuan in funds precisely timed each key policy turning point between the US and Iran, with highly unusual timing and scale, making insider trading highly suspect. Coupled with the earlier accurate predictions of military actions by niche platforms, a profit chain has already formed. Furthermore, the combination of insufficient regulatory manpower, weakened enforcement, and new trading platforms circumventing regulations presents significant practical challenges to combating insider trading in the cross-border oil market.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
