The "boy who cried wolf" saga continues, ushering in a golden and silver sweet spot in the US-Iran conflict.
2026-05-11 21:46:17
On Monday (May 11), during the European and American trading sessions, silver broke through and stood above $85, rising more than 6% on the day, while gold also showed no signs of weakness, approaching $4750 before rebounding and rising 0.44%.
Negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear issue have stalled, with Iran submitting a proposal that includes war damage compensation and a declaration of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump initially expressed his inability to accept it.
The US continued to exert pressure, and its allies responded accordingly. For example, Britain and France may hold negotiations on military plans in the Strait of Hormuz on the 12th. Iran warned Britain and France not to send troops, and later Iran announced that it would deploy deep-sea submarines in the Strait of Hormuz to maintain a tough stance.
Despite the tense situation, global risk appetite was not significantly impacted, and global equity markets surged. Markets bet that a large-scale conflict would not break out between the US and Iran during the US-China talks, shielding the market from short-term geopolitical escalation risks. Meanwhile, better-than-expected earnings from US AI companies also led to a surge in related equity assets, and silver has recently outperformed gold. However, the long-term concern about the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain gold's bullish momentum through interest rate levels.
Silver has recently performed exceptionally well, driven primarily by its strong technological attributes: high-end manufacturing sectors such as photovoltaics, AI computing infrastructure, and new energy vehicles are in high demand for it and consider it irreplaceable.
Combined with export controls imposed on silver by various countries and supply constraints from five consecutive years of global supply-demand deficits, silver has formed a pattern of "low inventory + high demand," and its technological attributes and precious metal attributes have resonated to make it a "dark horse" in the market.
Gold is exhibiting a "buy low, sell high" pattern, and while recent volatility has been low, it remains within the comfort zone of geopolitical trading.
The support stems from buying spurred by the easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as stable increases in holdings by global central banks and institutions, coupled with marginal support from a weakening US dollar.
However, this does not obscure the fact that its upside potential is severely limited, with the core constraint coming from the long-term high-interest-rate environment—gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset has declined, and funds are more inclined to flow into interest-bearing assets.
Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser warned that the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe energy shock. The current global oil supply gap is significant, and the shortage is expected to worsen in May and June. Even if shipping resumes, it will take several months for supply and demand to rebalance.
High oil prices reinforce expectations of high interest rates and, through the "substitution effect," divert safe-haven funds, becoming a key factor limiting the rise in gold prices.
Gold and silver have recently remained in a comfortable zone of geopolitical trading. Previous articles have analyzed the positions of the United States and Iran on war and repeatedly suggested that the US-Iran conflict should be treated with optimism near the starting point of the rise. At present, even if it is negative, funds will rush in to go long because, on the surface, neither side is accommodating the other, but in reality, they are giving each other a way out.
From a technical perspective, spot gold is still moving along an upward channel and is expected to break through the key resistance level of 4743 today. This level is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of this round of gold price increases and is a key resistance level.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: EasyForex subsidiary)
Silver has already broken through the 80 mark and is heading towards 90.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: FX678's subsidiary, EasyForex)
At 21:43 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4,743 per ounce, and spot silver is currently trading at $85.78 per ounce.
Negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear issue have stalled, with Iran submitting a proposal that includes war damage compensation and a declaration of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump initially expressed his inability to accept it.
The US continued to exert pressure, and its allies responded accordingly. For example, Britain and France may hold negotiations on military plans in the Strait of Hormuz on the 12th. Iran warned Britain and France not to send troops, and later Iran announced that it would deploy deep-sea submarines in the Strait of Hormuz to maintain a tough stance.
Despite the tense situation, global risk appetite was not significantly impacted, and global equity markets surged. Markets bet that a large-scale conflict would not break out between the US and Iran during the US-China talks, shielding the market from short-term geopolitical escalation risks. Meanwhile, better-than-expected earnings from US AI companies also led to a surge in related equity assets, and silver has recently outperformed gold. However, the long-term concern about the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain gold's bullish momentum through interest rate levels.
Silver breaks out strongly: Technological attributes drive explosive industrial demand.
Silver has recently performed exceptionally well, driven primarily by its strong technological attributes: high-end manufacturing sectors such as photovoltaics, AI computing infrastructure, and new energy vehicles are in high demand for it and consider it irreplaceable.
Combined with export controls imposed on silver by various countries and supply constraints from five consecutive years of global supply-demand deficits, silver has formed a pattern of "low inventory + high demand," and its technological attributes and precious metal attributes have resonated to make it a "dark horse" in the market.
Gold's oscillating movement: a balance between interest rate pressures and support levels.
Gold is exhibiting a "buy low, sell high" pattern, and while recent volatility has been low, it remains within the comfort zone of geopolitical trading.
The support stems from buying spurred by the easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as stable increases in holdings by global central banks and institutions, coupled with marginal support from a weakening US dollar.
However, this does not obscure the fact that its upside potential is severely limited, with the core constraint coming from the long-term high-interest-rate environment—gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset has declined, and funds are more inclined to flow into interest-bearing assets.
Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser warned that the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe energy shock. The current global oil supply gap is significant, and the shortage is expected to worsen in May and June. Even if shipping resumes, it will take several months for supply and demand to rebalance.
High oil prices reinforce expectations of high interest rates and, through the "substitution effect," divert safe-haven funds, becoming a key factor limiting the rise in gold prices.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
Gold and silver have recently remained in a comfortable zone of geopolitical trading. Previous articles have analyzed the positions of the United States and Iran on war and repeatedly suggested that the US-Iran conflict should be treated with optimism near the starting point of the rise. At present, even if it is negative, funds will rush in to go long because, on the surface, neither side is accommodating the other, but in reality, they are giving each other a way out.
From a technical perspective, spot gold is still moving along an upward channel and is expected to break through the key resistance level of 4743 today. This level is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of this round of gold price increases and is a key resistance level.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: EasyForex subsidiary)
Silver has already broken through the 80 mark and is heading towards 90.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: FX678's subsidiary, EasyForex)
At 21:43 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4,743 per ounce, and spot silver is currently trading at $85.78 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
