Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-05-26 18:41:41
[Russian Oil Prices Fall 11% So far in May, Budget Still Exceeds Target by About 20%] ⑴ From May 1st to 22nd, the price of Russian oil in rubles fell 11% compared to the April average, to 6,518 rubles per barrel. The April average was 7,299 rubles per barrel, the highest level since October 2023. ⑵ A stronger ruble and weaker global oil prices due to expectations of a possible agreement in the Iran nuclear deal have jointly depressed the ruble-denominated price of Russian oil. Russian authorities use the ruble price of oil as the basis for calculating mining taxes, which account for about one-fifth of the Russian federal budget revenue. ⑶ Despite the significant decline in May, the current price of Russian oil in rubles is still about 20% higher than the target level assumed in the 2026 federal budget. This budget assumes a ruble price of 5,440 rubles per barrel, equivalent to $59 per barrel, with an exchange rate of 92.2 rubles to 1 US dollar. (4) The budget target was set before the end of February, prior to the US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, which triggered an escalation of the Middle East conflict and unprecedented energy supply disruptions. International oil prices traded below $100 per barrel on Tuesday, a significant drop from the highs of over $120 per barrel in April. (5) The decline in ruble prices means that Russian oil tax revenues face contractionary pressure, but current prices are still significantly higher than the budget target, leaving some fiscal buffer in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the further impact of the evolving situation in Iran on oil prices, and how the ruble's exchange rate will affect Russia's fiscal balance.
