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[Caixin Futures: Most Ferrous Metals Show Divergence, Coking Coal Brewing Fifth Round of Price Increases] ⑴ Steel: Low-level fluctuations, valuation decline. Current steel demand is insufficient, while supply remains high, resulting in a weak overall supply and demand outlook. The top 20 long positions in the rebar 10 contract saw slightly larger reductions than short positions, while short positions in the hot-rolled coil 10 contract saw even more significant reductions. Technically, the rebar 10 contract reversed its upward trend, breaking below the 40-day and 60-day moving averages, and may continue its weak adjustment in the short term. In terms of valuation, the rebar 10 contract is already below the cost of long-process rebar in East China and the off-peak electricity cost of independent electric arc furnaces, indicating a neutral to low valuation, with limited upside and downside potential in the short term. ⑵ Iron Ore: High-level fluctuations, valuation shows support. On the supply side, iron ore shipments continue to recover, with a surge in shipments expected as the Australian fiscal year-end approaches in June; on the demand side, high pig iron production provides support for spot prices. Technically, the September contract saw a decline with reduced open interest, with attention focused on the 60-day moving average support. In terms of capital flows, both long and short positions decreased among the top 20 holders, with long positions seeing a larger reduction. Iron ore valuations may shift downwards in the short term, but the downside is limited until pig iron production declines significantly. ⑶ Coking Coal: Volatile. Although some suspended mines have resumed production, stricter safety regulations and reluctance to sell by intermediaries mean that short-term supply shortages are unlikely to change, and coking coal spot prices continue to be relatively strong. In terms of capital flows, both long and short positions among the top 20 holders continued to decrease, with short positions seeing a larger reduction. Technically, the September coking coal contract saw a mix of declines and rebounds due to reduced open interest, with short-term support around 1225 yuan/ton and resistance around 1288 yuan/ton. The ongoing struggle between safety regulations and supply guarantees, coupled with June's safety production month and power plant restocking, will continue to drive coal prices upwards, but caution is needed as thermal coal prices have exceeded the policy guidance price ceiling, potentially facing regulatory intervention with the peak summer season approaching. ⑷ Coke: Valuation shows support. The sharp rise in raw material prices has pushed up the immediate costs of coking plants, forcing some to reduce production and leading to a marginal decline in coke output. Pig iron production remains high, with strong demand providing support. Driven by strong cost pressures, coking plants are preparing for a fifth round of price increases. After the fourth round of price increases was fully implemented, the corresponding warehouse receipt cost was 1880 yuan/ton. Coupled with the expectation of further price increases, the valuation support for the futures market is gradually emerging. (5) Manganese Silicon: Fluctuating. Manganese ore shipments continued to decline, port manganese ore inventories shifted from increase to decrease, and plant operating rates rebounded slightly but remained low. The mentality of pressuring for lower manganese ore prices was prominent, and overall supply and demand remained weak and stable. In the short term, the futures market may mainly follow the fluctuations of raw coal. Technically, the manganese silicon 07 contract fell with reduced open interest. Support is expected at the 20-day moving average, while resistance may be around the 6100 psychological level.