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2026-05-27 19:50:26
[Used Car Price Fluctuations Driving Inflation, EVs Dragging Down Prices, SUVs Supporting Prices, Fed's Interest Rate Cuts Caught in a Dilemma] ⑴ The average price of a used car in the US market in May 2026 was approximately $26,000 to $30,166, with the CarGurus index showing an average price of $29,030, a monthly increase of 1.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.92%. SUV and truck prices remained firm with slight increases of 1% to 5%, hybrid vehicles were relatively resilient, while pure electric vehicle prices fell by 5% to 10% year-on-year. Non-Tesla models saw even steeper declines, with average prices ranging from approximately $34,821 to $36,440, narrowing the price difference with gasoline vehicles from over $10,000 to only about $1,000. ⑵ Key changes on the supply side: A large number of off-lease vehicles will return in 2026, including over 300,000 pure electric vehicles whose leases expire, driving a surge in used EV supply. Used EV sales in the first quarter increased by 12% year-on-year. New car sales increased significantly by 24% year-on-year, and overall inventory days rebounded to 30 to 42 days, but are still below historical normal levels. Trump's tariff comments sparked market concerns about new car price increases, which in turn boosted demand for used cars, limiting a significant price drop. (3) Used cars account for approximately 2.76% of the US CPI, and monthly fluctuations typically only affect the overall CPI by about 0.05 to 0.2 percentage points. However, during the extreme period of 2021-2022, they contributed one-third of monthly inflation. Currently, the Manheim wholesale index is up about 4% year-on-year, while the retail CPI is flat or slightly down, providing a neutral to slightly positive impact on inflation. The Federal Reserve closely monitors used car prices as an early signal of commodity inflation. If the price increases driven by used SUVs and tariffs continue, it may strengthen inflation stickiness and delay further interest rate cuts; conversely, if EV price reductions dominate the market, it will support a more accommodative policy path.
