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2026-05-29 09:59:09
[US-Iran Framework Agreement Approaching, Trump Caught Between Hawks and Oil Prices] (1) US President Trump is caught in a dilemma as he seeks to end the war against Iran: on the one hand, he wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower domestic oil prices; on the other hand, any concessions to Tehran could provoke strong opposition from Iranian hawks within his party. (2) According to sources, a framework agreement is being drafted that includes extending the current ceasefire and removing Iran’s control over key oil shipping routes, but postpones the nuclear issue to be discussed in subsequent negotiations. If approved, the agreement would be the most important step toward peace since the US-Israel joint strike against Iran and could alleviate soaring energy prices. (3) However, influential hawks within the Republican Party (such as Graham and Cruz) are urging Trump to “get the job done” and resume strikes to cut off Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Trump countered that he is in no hurry and will only accept a “great” agreement. (4) Leaked memos show that the proposed agreement avoids the most difficult issues, such as the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz, the disposal of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, and details of the lifting of sanctions. Critics argue that Iran may benefit more, only promising to continue nuclear negotiations in the future. (5) Analysts point out that Trump is trying to get Iran to make key concessions while only making limited compromises in order to portray the outcome as a victory. But reopening the Strait is merely a restoration of the pre-war state, not a real achievement. (6) Trump faces dual political and economic pressures: his approval rating has plummeted to a new low, the midterm elections are approaching, and high oil prices could damage the Republican Party's chances. Iran, on the other hand, has shown greater resilience, able to withstand a military strike and the cutting off of one-fifth of the world's oil supply. (7) For a president who promised not to get involved in unnecessary wars but has dragged the United States into conflict, how he ends this war will determine his foreign policy legacy for his second term.
