With the cost of living in the United States continuing to rise, the market generally predicts that the inflation data to be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday (June 10) will once again break through the key threshold, further clarifying the rebound in inflation.

Soaring energy prices are the direct cause of this round of price increases, but analysts point out that inflationary pressures have spread to more sectors. Coupled with deeper factors such as the monetary environment, the high inflation situation is unlikely to be reversed in the short term, and the capital market will also face volatility pressures.

Inflation data preview: Multiple indicators hit new highs in recent years

According to consensus forecasts from Wall Street institutions, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% month-on-month in May, with the year-on-year increase climbing to 4.2% . This figure not only marks the first time the year-on-year CPI has exceeded 4% since May 2023, but also represents the highest level since April 2023. In comparison, the overall U.S. inflation rate was only 2.4% in the same period last year, indicating a significant increase in prices in just one year.



The current overall inflation surge is largely due to soaring energy prices triggered by tensions in the Middle East. Even excluding the highly volatile food and energy sectors, core inflation remains strong. According to relevant calculations, the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in May, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9% , indicating that price increases are not limited to the energy sector, but rather show a comprehensive rise in overall price levels.

Previously, in April, the overall inflation rate in the United States was 3.8% year-on-year, and the core inflation rate was 2.8% year-on-year. In just one month, both indicators rose simultaneously, and the trend of inflation rebound was very clear.

The scope of inflation continues to expand, and its high stickiness becomes increasingly prominent.

As the impact of rising oil prices continues to spread throughout the entire industry chain, market concerns about the spread of inflation continue to intensify, and it is widely believed that the upward trend in prices will not subside in the short term.

Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist, Liz Ann Sonders, said that this round of inflation cannot be simply attributed to rising oil prices. Changes in the money supply and industrial development are also playing a role. This is a broader inflation problem, which also means that the current inflation is quite sticky.

He added that investor sentiment is currently heavily influenced by inflation data, and if the final inflation figures exceed market expectations, the stock market is likely to experience a significant correction. Regarding future market trends, the US government believes that inflation will quickly decline once the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, but this view has not been shared by industry professionals.

Supply chain damage is difficult to repair, and price declines face significant obstacles.

Liz Ann Sanders argues that the Middle East conflict has already caused substantial damage to the global energy supply chain, severely disrupting production. She states that even if the regional situation eases quickly, crude oil production cannot instantly return to pre-conflict levels, making it difficult for oil prices to fall back to previous lows, which will continue to support inflation.

In summary , US inflation has once again entered an upward trend. Rising energy prices were the direct trigger, while deeper factors such as currency and industry amplified the magnitude and duration of price increases.

Supply chain disruptions and widespread inflation have created significant obstacles to the current price decline. The upcoming CPI data will directly reflect current price levels, and its results will not only influence the future direction of US monetary policy but also have a profound impact on global capital markets.