International oil prices were hit hard during Asian trading hours on Monday (June 15). WTI crude oil futures fell as much as 5% at one point; Brent crude oil futures fell as much as 4%. Currently, WTI crude oil futures are down nearly 5%, trading around $80.70 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures are down more than 3%, trading around $83.70 per barrel.

Spot gold and silver prices surged. Spot gold opened with a sharp rise of over 2%, while spot silver climbed above $70 per ounce. Currently, spot gold is up 2% to around $4304 per ounce, and spot silver is up over 3% to around $70.20 per ounce.

According to reports, US President Trump posted on social media on the 14th local time that the agreement between the United States and Iran is "now complete," and he "authorized" the Strait of Hormuz to be "open for free" and the US Navy to immediately lift the blockade.

With the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the crude oil futures market has recently shown a clear reaction. Looking at changes in net long positions in the US dollar, long-term investment funds are withdrawing, continuously flowing out of the crude oil futures market.

Asia-Pacific stock markets: Japanese and South Korean stocks surged, with South Korean stocks triggering a "buy halt".

The Asia-Pacific market reacted most strongly. The South Korean KOSPI index opened with a surge of about 5%, briefly reaching 8531 points, triggering a buy-side sidecar halt on the exchange, suspending algorithmic buying for five minutes. Among individual stocks, Samsung Electronics rose about 5%, SK Hynix rose over 6.6%, Hyundai Motor rose 6.75%, and shipbuilding giant HD Hyundai Heavy Industries rose nearly 10%.

The Nikkei 225 index broke through 69,000 points for the first time in history, rising 4.52% on the day.

FTSE China A50 Index futures extended gains to 1%.

The US dollar index weakened under pressure.

The US dollar index fell as much as 0.38% in early Asian trading on Monday, hitting 99.42, its lowest level since June 5, influenced by the peace agreement reached between the US and Iran and the easing of geopolitical risks. Market risk appetite rebounded, leading to capital outflows from safe-haven assets, which dragged down the dollar's performance.

Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX Global in Sydney, expects the US dollar to continue weakening in the coming trading days, while riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar and Japanese yen may see slight gains, but overall volatility is not expected to be significant. He noted that while market sentiment has improved somewhat, investors have not yet fully shifted to an aggressive risk-averse approach.

Twidell added that the market is expected to remain cautious, focusing on how quickly the Strait of Hormuz can reopen and when oil supplies will truly return to normal. He pointed out that this process will certainly take months, not weeks. This means that substantial improvements on the supply side will be limited in the short term, and oil price and currency market volatility will remain constrained by the actual pace of progress, rather than solely by positive news regarding the agreement itself.

Strait of Hormuz Open

US President Trump posted on social media on the 14th that the agreement between the US and Iran was "now complete," and that he "authorized" the "free opening" of the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate lifting of the related blockade by the US Navy. According to Iranian media reports on the 15th, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement early that morning, formally confirming the signing of the memorandum of understanding on a ceasefire between Iran and the US.

According to a report by Iran's Tasnim News Agency early on the 15th, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that the formal signing ceremony of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding will be held in Switzerland on the 19th, and 60 days of negotiations will begin after Iran verifies that the US has fulfilled its commitments.

Gharibabadi said the heads of the Iranian and US delegations will meet on the 19th to determine follow-up arrangements. The prerequisite for starting the 60-day negotiations is that the US fulfills its commitments to end the war, lift the blockade, and unfreeze assets.

He said the 60-day negotiations would cover lifting all U.S. sanctions against Iran, the Iranian nuclear issue, economic reconstruction and development, and establishing a mechanism to monitor both sides' fulfillment of their commitments.

According to reports, Gharibabadi stated that two things would happen immediately starting on the morning of the 15th local time: first, a permanent and immediate end to the war on all fronts, including the Lebanese front; second, the lifting and termination of the US naval blockade against Iran. Iran's commitments will take effect after being formally signed on the 19th.

According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency on the 15th, citing an informed source, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on the 19th after the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States.

In addition, the 52nd G7 summit will be held in Evian-les-Bains, France, from June 15 to 17, with France holding the rotating presidency. Markets expect G7 leaders to urge Trump to support a European-led mission to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian negotiating team advisor reveals details of proposed memorandum of understanding

According to a report on the 14th, Mehdi Mohammadi, the strategic advisor to the Iranian negotiating team, disclosed some details of the proposed memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, covering issues such as ceasefire arrangements, asset unfreezing, sanctions lifting, and subsequent nuclear negotiations.

The first requirement is reportedly a cessation of conflict and security guarantees. This includes a complete halt to military operations against Iran and Lebanon, and prevention of any new military action. Simultaneously, the US must provide necessary assurances to prevent a resurgence of tensions.

Second, the process of unfreezing some of Iran's frozen assets and suspending some economic restrictions and sanctions will be initiated in order to create conditions for expanding economic exchanges and oil sales.

Third, lift restrictions on maritime transport and trade, restore normalcy to Iranian maritime trade, facilitate the passage of Iranian merchant ships and reduce maritime restrictions, and eliminate existing obstacles on international transport routes.

Fourth, negotiations on the nuclear issue will proceed in a later stage. According to the current negotiation text, the nuclear issue is not part of the first phase of the agreement. Negotiations on the nuclear issue will only proceed to the next stage after the other side fulfills its initial commitments.

Fifth, lifting sanctions and reconstruction. The final stage will focus on lifting US Tier 1 and Tier 2 sanctions and establishing mechanisms for compensation for war losses and reconstruction. This is one of Iran's most important demands.

Institutional Views

Market analyst Antonio Di Giacomo points out that one of the most important aspects of this potential agreement between the US and Iran is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic sea lane carries about one-fifth of the world's oil consumption, and its passage directly affects the supply and demand balance of the global energy market.

The senior market analyst added that once crude oil shipments can fully resume through this key corridor, market concerns about supply shortages will be significantly alleviated. The tension surrounding supply disruptions, which has been weighing on the market since the conflict began, is expected to ease. The reopening of the strait means that approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined product shipments will gradually return to normal, which will not only help stabilize current high oil prices but also improve the overall outlook for stability in the global energy market.

Dijacomo believes the agreement signifies a rapid detachment of geopolitical risk premiums from crude oil pricing. The upward pressure on prices previously stemming from concerns about the Straits closure will thus ease. However, he also cautions that the market still needs to monitor the actual performance of both sides in fulfilling their obligations during the subsequent 60 days of negotiations, as any setbacks could reignite supply concerns. Overall, the reopening of the Straits is a key positive signal easing tensions in the oil market.

"This is not a beautifully packaged, perfect peace treaty," Stephen Ines, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, noted in a report on Sunday. "It's a market-acceptable ceasefire framework that pushes the difficult issues into the future." This means that what the US and Iran have reached so far is more of a temporary ceasefire arrangement than a final agreement to resolve the fundamental contradictions.

Ines warned, "But this agreement is still riddled with hidden bombs that could explode at any moment." He cautioned traders against confusing the opening gap with the overall market trend. The sharp short-term market reaction may be due to excessive optimism; the real test lies in the subsequent implementation.

Ines emphasized that the market will now demand evidence—from Iran formally signing the agreement, to ships truly enjoying freedom of navigation in the Strait, and finally to whether Iran agrees to nuclear restrictions. In other words, the war premium is no longer the baseline scenario, but the "verification premium" still exists. This means that oil prices and other risky assets will still need to retain a portion of the uncertainty compensation until the various commitments of the agreement are fulfilled one by one. In the coming weeks, the market will shift from "trading on expectations" to "trading on facts," and any delays or setbacks in implementation could trigger new volatility.

At 09:24 Beijing time, spot gold is trading at $4306.49 per ounce, and US crude oil is trading at $80.61 per ounce.