Institutions: Raise year-end gold price target to $5,500; structural bull market continues.
2026-06-18 09:55:37
Wells Fargo released its mid-year market outlook, clarifying that the current gold price correction presents investment opportunities, and simultaneously significantly raised its medium- to long-term gold price target.
Institutions believe that the three major structural supports—inflation, high debt, and geopolitical risks—will persist in the long term, and the current gold price cycle is not over. They are also optimistic about the future performance of industrial metals such as copper, and multiple macroeconomic factors will continue to benefit various physical assets.
Sameer Samana, global head of equity and real asset strategy at Wells Fargo, said at an online mid-year outlook conference that gold prices still face short-term risks of testing the $4,000 level, but he maintains a strong bullish view in the long term.
The bank updated its price forecast on Tuesday (June 16), raising its year-end gold price target to $5,300 to $5,500 per ounce, while predicting that gold prices will climb to $5,800 to $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027.
The institution pointed out that the upward movement in gold prices is driven by long-term structural factors, rather than short-term cyclical fluctuations, and the bull market still has ample room to rise, with the current recovery continuing.
Samana said, "Gold is a high-quality asset diversification tool, and central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold reserves in addition to US Treasury bonds and cash to hedge against the high degree of uncertainty in the external environment."
Wells Fargo's Chief Investment Officer, Darrell Cronk, attributes this year's core market logic to geopolitical dynamics, regional competition, and the struggle for strategic resources. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, coupled with competition for key resources among nations, are reshaping global capital flows and increasing demand for real asset allocation.
Institutions predict that inflation will only ease slightly in the second half of the year, and the long period of low inflation before the pandemic is unlikely to return. Tariffs, high energy prices, and the expansion of the artificial intelligence industry will continue to push up price levels. Kronk stated that the market has long underestimated the impact of persistent inflation and fiscal deficits on US Treasury yields, and indicators such as inflation premiums and term premiums will support long-term yields to remain high.
Regarding the trend of real interest rates, he said that the Federal Reserve is constrained by the dual objectives of employment and price stability. Without a significant rebound in inflation, it will not aggressively tighten monetary policy. Even if energy prices cool down, fiscal expansion will still bring continuous inflationary pressure, and the overall environment is favorable for gold.
Samir Samana stated that the current environment presents gold with a highly advantageous asymmetric investment opportunity, with the upside potential far outweighing the downside risk.
He said, "For gold prices to continue to weaken, countries around the world need to actively tighten fiscal policy and strictly control inflation, but policymakers generally prefer loose regulation, which is the core logic for the long-term strength of gold."
He admitted that gold prices may experience periodic corrections, but the medium- to long-term risk-reward ratio is very attractive, and institutions expect gold prices to break through the $6,000 mark in the next 18 months.
In addition to gold, Wells Fargo is also bullish on the industrial metals sector. Artificial intelligence infrastructure, data center construction, and the global electrification transition will steadily drive demand for base metals such as copper. As countries around the world accelerate the deployment of strategic resource reserves and develop next-generation technology industries, both precious and industrial metals will simultaneously benefit from increased demand, and the overall upward cycle of physical assets is expected to continue.
In summary , short-term market disturbances will only lead to temporary adjustments in gold prices. High inflation, expanding government debt, and global geopolitical uncertainties provide long-term support for gold. Wells Fargo's upward revision of its medium- to long-term price targets confirms the institution's assessment of a structural bull market in gold. Meanwhile, industrial metals, driven by industrial transformation, possess sustained investment potential, and the current gold price pullback presents a window for long-term investment .
Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex
At 9:53 AM Beijing time on June 18, spot gold was trading at $4319.46 per ounce.
Institutions believe that the three major structural supports—inflation, high debt, and geopolitical risks—will persist in the long term, and the current gold price cycle is not over. They are also optimistic about the future performance of industrial metals such as copper, and multiple macroeconomic factors will continue to benefit various physical assets.
Gold prices have ample room for recovery, and medium- to long-term targets have been significantly raised.
Sameer Samana, global head of equity and real asset strategy at Wells Fargo, said at an online mid-year outlook conference that gold prices still face short-term risks of testing the $4,000 level, but he maintains a strong bullish view in the long term.
The bank updated its price forecast on Tuesday (June 16), raising its year-end gold price target to $5,300 to $5,500 per ounce, while predicting that gold prices will climb to $5,800 to $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027.
The institution pointed out that the upward movement in gold prices is driven by long-term structural factors, rather than short-term cyclical fluctuations, and the bull market still has ample room to rise, with the current recovery continuing.
Samana said, "Gold is a high-quality asset diversification tool, and central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold reserves in addition to US Treasury bonds and cash to hedge against the high degree of uncertainty in the external environment."
Multiple macroeconomic variables continue to support inflation, making it difficult for US Treasury yields to fall significantly.
Wells Fargo's Chief Investment Officer, Darrell Cronk, attributes this year's core market logic to geopolitical dynamics, regional competition, and the struggle for strategic resources. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, coupled with competition for key resources among nations, are reshaping global capital flows and increasing demand for real asset allocation.
Institutions predict that inflation will only ease slightly in the second half of the year, and the long period of low inflation before the pandemic is unlikely to return. Tariffs, high energy prices, and the expansion of the artificial intelligence industry will continue to push up price levels. Kronk stated that the market has long underestimated the impact of persistent inflation and fiscal deficits on US Treasury yields, and indicators such as inflation premiums and term premiums will support long-term yields to remain high.
Regarding the trend of real interest rates, he said that the Federal Reserve is constrained by the dual objectives of employment and price stability. Without a significant rebound in inflation, it will not aggressively tighten monetary policy. Even if energy prices cool down, fiscal expansion will still bring continuous inflationary pressure, and the overall environment is favorable for gold.
Gold offers highly volatile returns, and short-term fluctuations do not diminish its long-term investment value.
Samir Samana stated that the current environment presents gold with a highly advantageous asymmetric investment opportunity, with the upside potential far outweighing the downside risk.
He said, "For gold prices to continue to weaken, countries around the world need to actively tighten fiscal policy and strictly control inflation, but policymakers generally prefer loose regulation, which is the core logic for the long-term strength of gold."
He admitted that gold prices may experience periodic corrections, but the medium- to long-term risk-reward ratio is very attractive, and institutions expect gold prices to break through the $6,000 mark in the next 18 months.
Industrial metals will benefit in tandem, and the demand for strategic resources will provide long-term support.
In addition to gold, Wells Fargo is also bullish on the industrial metals sector. Artificial intelligence infrastructure, data center construction, and the global electrification transition will steadily drive demand for base metals such as copper. As countries around the world accelerate the deployment of strategic resource reserves and develop next-generation technology industries, both precious and industrial metals will simultaneously benefit from increased demand, and the overall upward cycle of physical assets is expected to continue.
In summary , short-term market disturbances will only lead to temporary adjustments in gold prices. High inflation, expanding government debt, and global geopolitical uncertainties provide long-term support for gold. Wells Fargo's upward revision of its medium- to long-term price targets confirms the institution's assessment of a structural bull market in gold. Meanwhile, industrial metals, driven by industrial transformation, possess sustained investment potential, and the current gold price pullback presents a window for long-term investment .
Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex
At 9:53 AM Beijing time on June 18, spot gold was trading at $4319.46 per ounce.
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