Lifting economic sanctions on Iran while simultaneously strengthening the Revolutionary Guard? The US-Iran peace agreement harbors a deadly irony.
2026-06-22 15:09:53
According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency on the 22nd, following the first round of negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland, the Iranian negotiating team disclosed that the agreement reached included five key points.
First, to solidify the ceasefire in Lebanon, a monitoring mechanism involving Iran will be established.
Secondly, a hotline should be established for the management of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the gradual reopening of the strait.
Third, Iran will only enter the final stage of negotiations after Article 13 of the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding is implemented.
Fourth, Iran and Qatar signed an implementation memorandum of understanding on unfreezing Iranian assets.
Fifth, the U.S. has issued a document for a 60-day period to lift sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives.
The outline of an agreement between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the conflict is beginning to emerge, but it contains a bitter irony: the "sweeteners" used to entice Iran to comply with the agreement may ultimately strengthen a hostile force that the United States and its Western allies consider a terrorist organization—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
For years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has not been weakened by sanctions; on the contrary, it has continued to grow, building a vast commercial empire spanning multiple sectors including oil, construction, shipping, telecommunications, and ports. Now, as the US and Iran begin negotiations on an agreement aimed at ending the conflict—an agreement that could unlock billions of dollars in funding for Iran and reopen its economy to global investment—this elite force is poised to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Four senior Iranian sources told the media that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has a unique advantage in being able to get a large share of the economic benefits brought about by the easing of sanctions, the resumption of oil exports, and foreign investment.
However, their dominance could also be one of the major obstacles to reaching an agreement: the Revolutionary Guard is deeply entrenched in Iran's business landscape, and its designation as a "terrorist organization" could make efforts to lift economic sanctions against Iran extremely complicated.
A senior source described the Revolutionary Guard as the true winner of the war, saying it not only ensured the survival of Iran's Islamic regime but also, having dominated much of Iran's sanctions evasion efforts for decades, is most likely to benefit from any lifting of sanctions. A spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard declined to comment when requested.
The interim agreement announced this week will allow exemptions for sanctioned oil sales.
Sources and analysts believe that any more comprehensive agreement reached in the future could lift all other sanctions and provide Iran with approximately $300 billion in reconstruction funds. A large portion of this enormous sum is likely to fall into the control of the Revolutionary Guard.
An Opaque Empire: From Oil to Construction, the Revolutionary Guard's Tentacles Are Everywhere. A second senior source stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps does not release financial data, but any effort to revitalize the Iranian economy will inevitably expand its already vast economic empire. He specifically mentioned the Revolutionary Guard's existing multi-billion dollar trading network, oil operations, shipping, and construction businesses.
According to official statements and public records, the Revolutionary Guard's engineering division, Khatam al-Anbia, oversees hundreds of affiliated companies whose businesses span major infrastructure and energy projects, and are involved in multiple sectors including telecommunications, automobile manufacturing, tourism, and logistics. This business empire, pervasive throughout the Iranian economy, gives it a natural advantage after the lifting of sanctions—it possesses readily available channels, networks, and influence to quickly secure foreign investment and reconstruction projects.
However, the Revolutionary Guard’s extensive role in the economic sphere could very well complicate the process of easing sanctions.
The problem is that the Western countries and the Iranian government have designated the Revolutionary Guard as a "terrorist organization"—a label that fundamentally contradicts the goals of lifting economic sanctions against Iran and attracting international investment.
International companies looking to return to the Iranian market face a dilemma: they cannot participate in Iran’s reconstruction and economic activities without dealing with companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, but cooperating with them could violate US and Western sanctions.
This paradox forces the US and Iran to confront a thorny issue in negotiations: how to lift sanctions on the Iranian economy while preventing entities designated as terrorist organizations from profiting from it.
Technical talks will continue within the 60-day negotiation window. In the short term, oil export waivers have provided Iran with some breathing room, but the growing influence of the Revolutionary Guard could exacerbate Western skepticism about the agreement and affect the attitudes of indirect stakeholders such as Israel. In the long term, this dynamic will test global investors' confidence in Iran's business environment and the sustainability of the agreement on nuclear issues and regional stability.
The interim US-Iran agreement provides a framework for ending the conflict, but the Revolutionary Guard's role as an economic powerhouse highlights the complexities of sanctions lifting. The actual flow and compliant implementation of the $300 billion reconstruction fund will determine whether the agreement truly brings regional stability or further strengthens existing power structures. Investors need to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations and the details of sanctions adjustments.
Q1: How was the Revolutionary Guard able to build a vast economic empire despite sanctions?
A: The Revolutionary Guard, through entities such as Hatem Ambiya, has long dominated infrastructure and energy projects and developed circumvention networks during the sanctions period, accumulating extensive business channels and political influence, giving it a natural competitive advantage after the economic sanctions are lifted.
Q2: What is the nature of the $300 billion reconstruction fund?
A: This is a private investment fund, primarily funded by the Gulf states and the Asian private sector. More than half of the funds have already been pledged, and it is not a direct payment from the US government. The funds are intended for Iran's reconstruction and economic development, and will be gradually implemented depending on conditions such as Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement.
Q3: How will the benefits to the Revolutionary Guard affect international companies' access to Iran?
A: Businesses face a dilemma: Iran's economy is highly dependent on companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, and cooperation may cross the red line of Western sanctions, leading to increased compliance risks and thus delaying foreign investment inflows and project progress.
Q4: What are the main achievements of the interim agreement so far?
A: This includes oil export exemptions, arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day ceasefire framework, and the initiation of working group negotiations on nuclear issues, laying the foundation for a comprehensive agreement.
Q5: What impact will this paradox have on the prospects for US-Iran negotiations?
A: This could increase the complexity of negotiations, as the US needs to balance the goals of lifting sanctions with preventing terrorist organizations from profiting from them, and hardliners within Iran may also use this as an opportunity to exert pressure. The final implementation of the agreement faces both geopolitical and domestic political challenges, and its success depends on the degree of compromise between the two sides on core issues such as nuclear weapons and regional stability.
First, to solidify the ceasefire in Lebanon, a monitoring mechanism involving Iran will be established.
Secondly, a hotline should be established for the management of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the gradual reopening of the strait.
Third, Iran will only enter the final stage of negotiations after Article 13 of the Iran-US Memorandum of Understanding is implemented.
Fourth, Iran and Qatar signed an implementation memorandum of understanding on unfreezing Iranian assets.
Fifth, the U.S. has issued a document for a 60-day period to lift sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives.
Who is waiting for the $300 billion pie?
The outline of an agreement between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the conflict is beginning to emerge, but it contains a bitter irony: the "sweeteners" used to entice Iran to comply with the agreement may ultimately strengthen a hostile force that the United States and its Western allies consider a terrorist organization—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
For years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has not been weakened by sanctions; on the contrary, it has continued to grow, building a vast commercial empire spanning multiple sectors including oil, construction, shipping, telecommunications, and ports. Now, as the US and Iran begin negotiations on an agreement aimed at ending the conflict—an agreement that could unlock billions of dollars in funding for Iran and reopen its economy to global investment—this elite force is poised to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Four senior Iranian sources told the media that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has a unique advantage in being able to get a large share of the economic benefits brought about by the easing of sanctions, the resumption of oil exports, and foreign investment.
However, their dominance could also be one of the major obstacles to reaching an agreement: the Revolutionary Guard is deeply entrenched in Iran's business landscape, and its designation as a "terrorist organization" could make efforts to lift economic sanctions against Iran extremely complicated.
Survivors of sanctions are also winners of the lifting of embargoes.
A senior source described the Revolutionary Guard as the true winner of the war, saying it not only ensured the survival of Iran's Islamic regime but also, having dominated much of Iran's sanctions evasion efforts for decades, is most likely to benefit from any lifting of sanctions. A spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard declined to comment when requested.
The interim agreement announced this week will allow exemptions for sanctioned oil sales.
Sources and analysts believe that any more comprehensive agreement reached in the future could lift all other sanctions and provide Iran with approximately $300 billion in reconstruction funds. A large portion of this enormous sum is likely to fall into the control of the Revolutionary Guard.
An Opaque Empire: From Oil to Construction, the Revolutionary Guard's Tentacles Are Everywhere. A second senior source stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps does not release financial data, but any effort to revitalize the Iranian economy will inevitably expand its already vast economic empire. He specifically mentioned the Revolutionary Guard's existing multi-billion dollar trading network, oil operations, shipping, and construction businesses.
According to official statements and public records, the Revolutionary Guard's engineering division, Khatam al-Anbia, oversees hundreds of affiliated companies whose businesses span major infrastructure and energy projects, and are involved in multiple sectors including telecommunications, automobile manufacturing, tourism, and logistics. This business empire, pervasive throughout the Iranian economy, gives it a natural advantage after the lifting of sanctions—it possesses readily available channels, networks, and influence to quickly secure foreign investment and reconstruction projects.
The greatest irony: How can the label of a terrorist organization hinder peace?
However, the Revolutionary Guard’s extensive role in the economic sphere could very well complicate the process of easing sanctions.
The problem is that the Western countries and the Iranian government have designated the Revolutionary Guard as a "terrorist organization"—a label that fundamentally contradicts the goals of lifting economic sanctions against Iran and attracting international investment.
International companies looking to return to the Iranian market face a dilemma: they cannot participate in Iran’s reconstruction and economic activities without dealing with companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, but cooperating with them could violate US and Western sanctions.
This paradox forces the US and Iran to confront a thorny issue in negotiations: how to lift sanctions on the Iranian economy while preventing entities designated as terrorist organizations from profiting from it.
Outlook and Risks
Technical talks will continue within the 60-day negotiation window. In the short term, oil export waivers have provided Iran with some breathing room, but the growing influence of the Revolutionary Guard could exacerbate Western skepticism about the agreement and affect the attitudes of indirect stakeholders such as Israel. In the long term, this dynamic will test global investors' confidence in Iran's business environment and the sustainability of the agreement on nuclear issues and regional stability.
Editor's Summary
The interim US-Iran agreement provides a framework for ending the conflict, but the Revolutionary Guard's role as an economic powerhouse highlights the complexities of sanctions lifting. The actual flow and compliant implementation of the $300 billion reconstruction fund will determine whether the agreement truly brings regional stability or further strengthens existing power structures. Investors need to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations and the details of sanctions adjustments.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: How was the Revolutionary Guard able to build a vast economic empire despite sanctions?
A: The Revolutionary Guard, through entities such as Hatem Ambiya, has long dominated infrastructure and energy projects and developed circumvention networks during the sanctions period, accumulating extensive business channels and political influence, giving it a natural competitive advantage after the economic sanctions are lifted.
Q2: What is the nature of the $300 billion reconstruction fund?
A: This is a private investment fund, primarily funded by the Gulf states and the Asian private sector. More than half of the funds have already been pledged, and it is not a direct payment from the US government. The funds are intended for Iran's reconstruction and economic development, and will be gradually implemented depending on conditions such as Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement.
Q3: How will the benefits to the Revolutionary Guard affect international companies' access to Iran?
A: Businesses face a dilemma: Iran's economy is highly dependent on companies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, and cooperation may cross the red line of Western sanctions, leading to increased compliance risks and thus delaying foreign investment inflows and project progress.
Q4: What are the main achievements of the interim agreement so far?
A: This includes oil export exemptions, arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz, a 60-day ceasefire framework, and the initiation of working group negotiations on nuclear issues, laying the foundation for a comprehensive agreement.
Q5: What impact will this paradox have on the prospects for US-Iran negotiations?
A: This could increase the complexity of negotiations, as the US needs to balance the goals of lifting sanctions with preventing terrorist organizations from profiting from them, and hardliners within Iran may also use this as an opportunity to exert pressure. The final implementation of the agreement faces both geopolitical and domestic political challenges, and its success depends on the degree of compromise between the two sides on core issues such as nuclear weapons and regional stability.
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