June 24th Financial Breakfast: Rising interest rate hike expectations push the dollar to a more than one-year high, weighing on gold prices; US-Iran peace talks provide support, causing oil prices to fall to a near four-month low.
2026-06-24 07:29:12
On Wednesday (June 24, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,100 per ounce. Rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and a dollar index reaching a more than one-year high weighed on gold prices. Progress was made in US-Iran peace talks, hostilities in Lebanon subsided, and oil prices fell to a near four-month low. Investors are closely watching the resumption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. US crude oil is currently trading around $72.85 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes closing at their lowest levels in more than a week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.09% to 51,665.49, the S&P 500 fell 1.44% to 7,365.47, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.21% to 25,587.04, mainly dragged down by a sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.9%, and the S&P 500 Information Technology sector fell 3.7%, with Nvidia down 4.1%, Alphabet down 1%, and Intel, Marvell Technology, and AMD falling between 5.8% and 9.4%. Micron and SanDisk, the best performers this year, both fell by about 13%. Investors' concerns about mega-capital companies borrowing to fund artificial intelligence spending have intensified, and SpaceX, Musk's company, has also joined the ranks of bond financing after its IPO this month, raising questions about current capital expenditures and semiconductor capacity expansion.
In addition, traders increased their bets on a second rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December (previously only a 25 basis point hike was expected), reflecting market preparation for a more hawkish policy under the leadership of new Chairman Warsh. The release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE data, on Thursday further dampened risk appetite. The CBOE Volatility Index, considered a "fear index," rose to a more than one-week high of 19.52. However, six of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the consumer staples sector leading the gains at 1.8%, indicating that funds were shifting from overvalued technology stocks to defensive sectors.
The U.S. Senate passed a bill on Tuesday attempting to block military action against Iran, but its actual impact on the Middle East situation remains unclear as the Trump administration negotiates a peace deal with Iran.
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, with spot gold closing down nearly 2% at $4,110.05 an ounce, mainly due to the dollar index rising to a more than one-year high and market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike continuing to rise.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect the probability of a December rate hike to rise to about 86%, far higher than the 61% before last week's Fed meeting. This is thanks to the hawkish signals released by the new chairman, Warsh, and a high-interest-rate environment usually puts pressure on non-interest-bearing gold.
Despite progress in US-Iran peace talks (the US granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver starting Monday, and oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz began to resume) pushing down oil prices, which theoretically should provide some support for gold prices, StoneX analysts point out that the precious metals market is currently more focused on Federal Reserve policy than the situation in the Middle East.
Investors are awaiting the release of US PCE inflation data on Thursday for further clues. In other precious metals, spot silver fell more than 5% to $61.52, platinum fell 1.2% to $1657.92, and palladium fell 2.6% to $1232.28.
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday, hitting near four-month lows during the session. U.S. crude fell 1.39% to $73.05 a barrel, mainly due to progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks—the U.S. granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver after initial negotiations, hostilities in Lebanon subsided, and investors closely watched the resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oman and Iran agreed to continue discussions on future navigation management in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that as part of the final agreement, Iran would not be allowed to charge tolls in this crucial waterway, and Iranian military sources said that a certain number of ships would be allowed to pass through each day.
Ship tracking data shows that three previously stranded supertankers have passed through the strait, and seven empty LNG carriers linked to Qatar have also entered. The United Nations is implementing an evacuation plan to allow hundreds of stranded vessels to pass through, but analysts point out that shipowners still need assurances that the threat of mines has been completely eliminated. Meanwhile, damaged ports, wreckage in the water, and channel congestion are also creating additional obstacles to increased shipping volume.
The dollar rose to its highest level in over a year on Tuesday, with the dollar index gaining 0.37% to 101.37, hitting a new high since May 2025 at 101.42 during the session. This was mainly driven by rising market expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a rate hike in July had risen to 36.3% from 8.5% a week earlier, and the probability of a rate hike in September had risen to 69.1% from 29.1%. At the same time, safe-haven buying triggered by a sell-off in large-cap tech stocks also further supported the dollar.
The euro fell 0.41% to $1.138, hitting a low of $1.1374, its lowest since June 2025. Societe Generale noted that interest rate differentials could push the euro below $1.14, as US economic performance and interest rate markets suggest the Federal Reserve will tighten more aggressively than the European Central Bank. The pound fell 0.45% to $1.3187 (as the government enters a transition phase following Prime Minister Starmer's resignation).
The dollar rose slightly by 0.01% against the yen to 161.55 yen. A break above 161.96 would mark the lowest level since 1986. The market is highly focused on whether Japan will intervene in the currency market. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama held a remote meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessenter on Monday evening to discuss policy responses to the weak yen, but the Japanese authorities have not yet given a clear signal of intervention. Investors are awaiting the US May PCE inflation data to be released on Thursday to further assess price pressures. Chicago Fed President Goolsby said he is watching whether inflation will remain high given the stable labor market, while ECB Chief Economist Lane said that even if the situation in the Middle East eases, eurozone inflation may still temporarily remain above the 2% target.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year is approximately 86%, with a 70.2% probability of a rate hike in September.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 62.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 37.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 29.8%, the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points is 70.2%, and the probability of a rate hike of 50 basis points is 19.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 113.8%, the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points is 86.2%, and the probability of a rate hike of at least 50 basis points is 49.7%.
Oman coordinates with the International Maritime Organization to open a temporary navigation channel in the Strait of Hormuz.
Early on the morning of the 24th local time, Oman issued a statement saying that, given its responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz and its important role in the global economy, and based on compliance with international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, ensuring freedom of passage without fees, and in conjunction with the achievements of the relevant negotiations and mediation efforts between the United States and Iran, Oman has coordinated with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to open a temporary maritime passage for all vessels. According to the arrangement, the passage will operate according to navigation coordinates published by the IMO and the Omani authorities, and vessels planning to use the passage must coordinate with the IMO in advance.
Trump said IAEA inspectors will visit Iran in due course.
On June 23 local time, US President Trump stated that Iran's claims regarding the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections were incorrect. He also stated that inspectors would enter the site to conduct their work at the appropriate time. Earlier on the 23rd, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei stated that there were currently no plans for IAEA inspectors to visit Iran's damaged nuclear facilities. (CCTV News)
Iranian president says Iran would be Gaza without missiles.
On June 23 local time, Iranian President Pezechzian, who was visiting Pakistan, stated in an interview that the Iran-US memorandum of understanding did not include the issue of Iranian missiles, and that it would never be included in future negotiations. Pezechzian said, "If it weren't for our missiles, Iran would have been razed to the ground by the US and Israel long ago, just like the Gaza Strip in Palestine. Iran will never negotiate our defense capabilities with anyone." Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif stated that prohibiting Iran from possessing ballistic missiles while other countries possess them is a "double standard," which is unacceptable and illogical. (CCTV International News)
US Secretary of State: The US will engage directly with the Lebanese government.
On June 23 local time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States will engage directly with the Lebanese government. Regarding future arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, Rubio stated that no country is permitted to levy tolls or other fees on international waterways, as stipulated by current international law. He indicated that specific methods for handling related issues will be raised and discussed at an appropriate time. (CCTV News)
Hezbollah leader: Israel must completely withdraw from all Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah leader Naeem Qassem stated in a televised address on the 23rd that the ceasefire has now been achieved and the Israeli withdrawal must proceed according to schedule. He said, "Israel has no choice but to completely withdraw from all of Lebanese territory, not even an inch." Qassem also stated that after the Israeli withdrawal, only Lebanese troops will be deployed south of the Litani River. Israel has not yet responded to this. (CCTV News)
Putin: Russia is willing to negotiate with Ukraine based on the Istanbul Agreement and other agreements.
On March 23 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a government meeting that Russia is willing to conduct peace negotiations with Ukraine based on the agreement reached in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, the principles outlined in his speech at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2024, the model discussed at the Anchorage summit in 2025, and the realities on the ground. He stated that the peace negotiations were proactively interrupted by the Ukrainian side. Currently, Kyiv is attempting to create favorable conditions for resuming the interrupted negotiations by launching attacks against Russia. (CCTV News)
The second day of the Blockchain Expo featured 40 business networking events.
The 23rd marked the second day of the 4th China International Blockchain Expo, with 40 business exchange activities taking place, including the launch event, themed events, and provincial events. Hainan, the guest province, held a large-scale promotional event, attracting representatives from numerous domestic and international business associations and enterprises. At the event, Hainan Province gave a special presentation on its free trade port core policies, tax incentives, industrial layout, and key industrial parks. Representatives from foreign-invested enterprises and business associations shared their investment experiences and prospects for industrial cooperation, and conducted business matching activities. During the promotional event, the Italian Logistics and Ports Association, the International Green Economy Alliance, and the American Association for Aging Care, among others, signed cooperation agreements with Hainan. (CCTV)
What does the national fiscal revenue and expenditure "report card" for the first five months of this year reflect? Experts interpret it.
On the 22nd, the Ministry of Finance released the national fiscal revenue and expenditure situation for January-May this year. Data shows that in the first five months, national general public budget revenue exceeded 10 trillion yuan. Bai Yanfeng, professor at the School of Finance and Taxation of the Central University of Finance and Economics, stated: "This improvement in fiscal revenue data represents a comprehensive improvement from the central to local levels, and from fiscal policy to the economy, which is very encouraging. The tight balance between fiscal revenue and expenditure has been greatly alleviated. The growth rate of tax revenue exceeded the growth rate of general public budget revenue, meaning the proportion of tax revenue is increasing. This reflects an improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue and also indicates that the potential for economic growth has been further released and enhanced." Looking at the main tax categories, from January to May, driven by the continued growth of industry and services and the rise in industrial producer prices, domestic value-added tax (VAT) increased by 6.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase. VAT is closely related to the national economy, industrial production, and service consumption; it is the main tax category in tax revenue and reflects the continuous improvement of the economic foundation. (CCTV)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes closing at their lowest levels in more than a week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.09% to 51,665.49, the S&P 500 fell 1.44% to 7,365.47, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.21% to 25,587.04, mainly dragged down by a sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.9%, and the S&P 500 Information Technology sector fell 3.7%, with Nvidia down 4.1%, Alphabet down 1%, and Intel, Marvell Technology, and AMD falling between 5.8% and 9.4%. Micron and SanDisk, the best performers this year, both fell by about 13%. Investors' concerns about mega-capital companies borrowing to fund artificial intelligence spending have intensified, and SpaceX, Musk's company, has also joined the ranks of bond financing after its IPO this month, raising questions about current capital expenditures and semiconductor capacity expansion.
In addition, traders increased their bets on a second rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December (previously only a 25 basis point hike was expected), reflecting market preparation for a more hawkish policy under the leadership of new Chairman Warsh. The release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE data, on Thursday further dampened risk appetite. The CBOE Volatility Index, considered a "fear index," rose to a more than one-week high of 19.52. However, six of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the consumer staples sector leading the gains at 1.8%, indicating that funds were shifting from overvalued technology stocks to defensive sectors.
The U.S. Senate passed a bill on Tuesday attempting to block military action against Iran, but its actual impact on the Middle East situation remains unclear as the Trump administration negotiates a peace deal with Iran.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, with spot gold closing down nearly 2% at $4,110.05 an ounce, mainly due to the dollar index rising to a more than one-year high and market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike continuing to rise.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect the probability of a December rate hike to rise to about 86%, far higher than the 61% before last week's Fed meeting. This is thanks to the hawkish signals released by the new chairman, Warsh, and a high-interest-rate environment usually puts pressure on non-interest-bearing gold.
Despite progress in US-Iran peace talks (the US granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver starting Monday, and oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz began to resume) pushing down oil prices, which theoretically should provide some support for gold prices, StoneX analysts point out that the precious metals market is currently more focused on Federal Reserve policy than the situation in the Middle East.
Investors are awaiting the release of US PCE inflation data on Thursday for further clues. In other precious metals, spot silver fell more than 5% to $61.52, platinum fell 1.2% to $1657.92, and palladium fell 2.6% to $1232.28.
oil market
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday, hitting near four-month lows during the session. U.S. crude fell 1.39% to $73.05 a barrel, mainly due to progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks—the U.S. granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver after initial negotiations, hostilities in Lebanon subsided, and investors closely watched the resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oman and Iran agreed to continue discussions on future navigation management in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that as part of the final agreement, Iran would not be allowed to charge tolls in this crucial waterway, and Iranian military sources said that a certain number of ships would be allowed to pass through each day.
Ship tracking data shows that three previously stranded supertankers have passed through the strait, and seven empty LNG carriers linked to Qatar have also entered. The United Nations is implementing an evacuation plan to allow hundreds of stranded vessels to pass through, but analysts point out that shipowners still need assurances that the threat of mines has been completely eliminated. Meanwhile, damaged ports, wreckage in the water, and channel congestion are also creating additional obstacles to increased shipping volume.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar rose to its highest level in over a year on Tuesday, with the dollar index gaining 0.37% to 101.37, hitting a new high since May 2025 at 101.42 during the session. This was mainly driven by rising market expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a rate hike in July had risen to 36.3% from 8.5% a week earlier, and the probability of a rate hike in September had risen to 69.1% from 29.1%. At the same time, safe-haven buying triggered by a sell-off in large-cap tech stocks also further supported the dollar.
The euro fell 0.41% to $1.138, hitting a low of $1.1374, its lowest since June 2025. Societe Generale noted that interest rate differentials could push the euro below $1.14, as US economic performance and interest rate markets suggest the Federal Reserve will tighten more aggressively than the European Central Bank. The pound fell 0.45% to $1.3187 (as the government enters a transition phase following Prime Minister Starmer's resignation).
The dollar rose slightly by 0.01% against the yen to 161.55 yen. A break above 161.96 would mark the lowest level since 1986. The market is highly focused on whether Japan will intervene in the currency market. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama held a remote meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessenter on Monday evening to discuss policy responses to the weak yen, but the Japanese authorities have not yet given a clear signal of intervention. Investors are awaiting the US May PCE inflation data to be released on Thursday to further assess price pressures. Chicago Fed President Goolsby said he is watching whether inflation will remain high given the stable labor market, while ECB Chief Economist Lane said that even if the situation in the Middle East eases, eurozone inflation may still temporarily remain above the 2% target.
International News
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year is approximately 86%, with a 70.2% probability of a rate hike in September.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 62.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 37.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 29.8%, the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points is 70.2%, and the probability of a rate hike of 50 basis points is 19.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 113.8%, the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points is 86.2%, and the probability of a rate hike of at least 50 basis points is 49.7%.
Oman coordinates with the International Maritime Organization to open a temporary navigation channel in the Strait of Hormuz.
Early on the morning of the 24th local time, Oman issued a statement saying that, given its responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz and its important role in the global economy, and based on compliance with international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, ensuring freedom of passage without fees, and in conjunction with the achievements of the relevant negotiations and mediation efforts between the United States and Iran, Oman has coordinated with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to open a temporary maritime passage for all vessels. According to the arrangement, the passage will operate according to navigation coordinates published by the IMO and the Omani authorities, and vessels planning to use the passage must coordinate with the IMO in advance.
Trump said IAEA inspectors will visit Iran in due course.
On June 23 local time, US President Trump stated that Iran's claims regarding the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections were incorrect. He also stated that inspectors would enter the site to conduct their work at the appropriate time. Earlier on the 23rd, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei stated that there were currently no plans for IAEA inspectors to visit Iran's damaged nuclear facilities. (CCTV News)
Iranian president says Iran would be Gaza without missiles.
On June 23 local time, Iranian President Pezechzian, who was visiting Pakistan, stated in an interview that the Iran-US memorandum of understanding did not include the issue of Iranian missiles, and that it would never be included in future negotiations. Pezechzian said, "If it weren't for our missiles, Iran would have been razed to the ground by the US and Israel long ago, just like the Gaza Strip in Palestine. Iran will never negotiate our defense capabilities with anyone." Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif stated that prohibiting Iran from possessing ballistic missiles while other countries possess them is a "double standard," which is unacceptable and illogical. (CCTV International News)
US Secretary of State: The US will engage directly with the Lebanese government.
On June 23 local time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States will engage directly with the Lebanese government. Regarding future arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, Rubio stated that no country is permitted to levy tolls or other fees on international waterways, as stipulated by current international law. He indicated that specific methods for handling related issues will be raised and discussed at an appropriate time. (CCTV News)
Hezbollah leader: Israel must completely withdraw from all Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah leader Naeem Qassem stated in a televised address on the 23rd that the ceasefire has now been achieved and the Israeli withdrawal must proceed according to schedule. He said, "Israel has no choice but to completely withdraw from all of Lebanese territory, not even an inch." Qassem also stated that after the Israeli withdrawal, only Lebanese troops will be deployed south of the Litani River. Israel has not yet responded to this. (CCTV News)
Putin: Russia is willing to negotiate with Ukraine based on the Istanbul Agreement and other agreements.
On March 23 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a government meeting that Russia is willing to conduct peace negotiations with Ukraine based on the agreement reached in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, the principles outlined in his speech at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2024, the model discussed at the Anchorage summit in 2025, and the realities on the ground. He stated that the peace negotiations were proactively interrupted by the Ukrainian side. Currently, Kyiv is attempting to create favorable conditions for resuming the interrupted negotiations by launching attacks against Russia. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
The second day of the Blockchain Expo featured 40 business networking events.
The 23rd marked the second day of the 4th China International Blockchain Expo, with 40 business exchange activities taking place, including the launch event, themed events, and provincial events. Hainan, the guest province, held a large-scale promotional event, attracting representatives from numerous domestic and international business associations and enterprises. At the event, Hainan Province gave a special presentation on its free trade port core policies, tax incentives, industrial layout, and key industrial parks. Representatives from foreign-invested enterprises and business associations shared their investment experiences and prospects for industrial cooperation, and conducted business matching activities. During the promotional event, the Italian Logistics and Ports Association, the International Green Economy Alliance, and the American Association for Aging Care, among others, signed cooperation agreements with Hainan. (CCTV)
What does the national fiscal revenue and expenditure "report card" for the first five months of this year reflect? Experts interpret it.
On the 22nd, the Ministry of Finance released the national fiscal revenue and expenditure situation for January-May this year. Data shows that in the first five months, national general public budget revenue exceeded 10 trillion yuan. Bai Yanfeng, professor at the School of Finance and Taxation of the Central University of Finance and Economics, stated: "This improvement in fiscal revenue data represents a comprehensive improvement from the central to local levels, and from fiscal policy to the economy, which is very encouraging. The tight balance between fiscal revenue and expenditure has been greatly alleviated. The growth rate of tax revenue exceeded the growth rate of general public budget revenue, meaning the proportion of tax revenue is increasing. This reflects an improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue and also indicates that the potential for economic growth has been further released and enhanced." Looking at the main tax categories, from January to May, driven by the continued growth of industry and services and the rise in industrial producer prices, domestic value-added tax (VAT) increased by 6.2%, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase. VAT is closely related to the national economy, industrial production, and service consumption; it is the main tax category in tax revenue and reflects the continuous improvement of the economic foundation. (CCTV)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
