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June 30th Financial Breakfast: Iran denies recent plans for negotiations with the US, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the authenticity of the talks; interest rate expectations weigh on gold prices; geopolitical risk premium returns to the oil market.

2026-06-30 07:26:12

On Tuesday (June 30, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,020 per barrel. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran fueled inflation concerns and reinforced market expectations of rising interest rates, limiting gold's gains. Despite Trump's statement that the US and Iran would hold talks in Doha today, Iran said it had no plans to negotiate with the US in the coming days, and the Israeli Defense Minister stated that the Israeli military was prepared to take independent military action against Iran. Oil prices were again supported by geopolitical premiums, with US crude oil currently trading around $70.23 per barrel.

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Key Focus Today



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stock market


U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a record closing high, the S&P 500 rising 1.18% to close at 7,440.43, and the Nasdaq surging 2.1% to 25,820.14, mainly boosted by easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, a rebound in large-cap technology stocks, and quarter-end "window dressing" practices.

Iranian and U.S. negotiating teams will travel to Doha this week but no meetings are scheduled. This follows missile exchanges over the weekend, but a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict was signed on June 17. Market sentiment was not negatively affected. The communications services sector led the gains, with Comcast rising 4.5% on plans to spin off NBCUniversal and Sky, SpaceX jumping 7.2% on its impending inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index, and Alphabet (Google's parent company) closing up 4.8% as a new Dow Jones component. The information technology sector rose 1.7%.

Royal Bank of Canada raised its 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 8,150, citing strong corporate earnings and macroeconomic support; investors are focused on the U.S. monthly jobs report due on Thursday, with most S&P components expected to begin reporting second-quarter earnings after mid-July.

Gold Market


Gold prices fell on Monday, with spot gold down 1.58% to $4,016.45 an ounce, after dropping more than 2% at one point during the session. This was mainly due to renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, which pushed up oil prices and fueled inflation concerns, reinforcing market expectations of rising interest rates.

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On Sunday, Iran launched missiles and drones at U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain after U.S. President Trump threatened to remove Iran's leadership if it did not comply with the final peace agreement. Oil prices rose after the attacks, while markets were still digesting the impact of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this month but policymakers expecting a rate hike later this year. The dollar was on track for its biggest monthly gain in nearly a year, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

Investors are awaiting Wednesday's ADP employment data and Thursday's US non-farm payroll data for clues about monetary policy. Traders expect a 63% probability of a rate hike in September, and if strong employment data supports the Fed's stance of maintaining high interest rates, gold prices may hit new lows.

In other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.85% to $58.27, platinum fell 2.1% to $1580.45, and palladium rose 1.1% to $1222.24.

oil market


Brent crude rose 0.19% to $73.61 a barrel on Monday. Although U.S. crude closed lower, it briefly broke above $71 a barrel during the session. The weekend's mutual strikes between the U.S. and Iran highlighted the fragility of the interim peace agreement, but the market's cautious optimism about the continued recovery of energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz limited the gains.

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Sources say US and Iranian technical teams are expected to meet in Doha in the coming days. Iran's deputy foreign minister said he would consult with Oman on redefining the passage routes in the Strait of Hormuz and try to stop ships from passing illegally. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries continue loading operations, and Persian Gulf crude oil exports have recovered to at least 75% of pre-war levels. However, analysts warn that shipping is far from fully recovered, with waterway mines, incomplete insurance coverage, and the continued risk of attacks on ships contributing to the slowdown.

Foreign exchange market


The dollar fell 0.24% to 101.11 on Monday, but remained near a 13-month high, having risen 2.19% this month, supported by optimistic U.S. economic growth prospects, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, and capital inflows driven by the AI boom.

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The yen touched 161.97 yen to the dollar, its lowest level since 1986, despite the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.00%, but the large interest rate differential with the US and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance had little effect. The market is focused on Thursday's US June jobs report, which is expected to show 110,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. Strong non-farm payroll data for the past three months has supported the Fed's hawkish shift, and federal funds futures show a 64% probability of a rate hike in September.

The euro rose 0.39% to $1.1427, and the pound rose 0.42% to $1.3256, as investors focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech at the European Central Bank's annual forum and the appointment of Burnham as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Regarding the US-Iran conflict, technical teams from both sides are expected to meet in Doha in the coming days to finalize a temporary peace agreement. Meanwhile, US market regulator data shows that investors' long positions in the US dollar have reached approximately $36.4 billion, the highest level since 2019.

International News


Trump says US-Iran talks in Doha today

US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on the afternoon of June 29 local time that the US and Iran would hold talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar, today (June 30). Trump said that US representatives "may have already left or are preparing to leave," and that the talks "may be important or may not be important," but the US "has won militarily," adding that "oil prices have fallen, and Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons." According to previous reports from US media, after two days of mutual attacks over the weekend, the US and Iran agreed to suspend military operations and would meet in Doha today to resolve their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. The White House stated that Presidential Envoy Witkov and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner would participate in the Doha talks. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae emphasized on June 29 local time that Iran would not hold any level of negotiations with the US in the coming days. Baghae stated that Iran would send an expert delegation to Doha this week to follow up on related matters, but the US delegation's trip to Doha was unrelated to the Iranian expert delegation's visit. (CCTV)

The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister emphasized that ships must pass through the Strait of Hormuz along the "Iranian route".

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi emphasized in an interview on the evening of the 29th local time that all ships must pass through the Strait of Hormuz according to the "Iranian route," otherwise Iran will take countermeasures against the relevant ships. In the interview, Gharibabadi stated that the delegations of Iran and Oman had discussed issues such as the future management of the strait at the first meeting of the joint working group on the Strait of Hormuz earlier that day. Iran is willing to consult with Oman on a "new arrangement" for the strait, but opposes establishing any other route through the Strait of Hormuz besides the "Iranian route," and has clearly informed Oman of its position. If Oman "has no intention of participating in the new arrangement," Iran will decide on its own how to manage the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV News)

Iran says it will control passage through the Strait of Hormuz regardless of Oman's involvement.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Qazem Gharibabadi stated that even if "Oman is not interested for some reason," Iran will proceed with its plan to control maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Gharibabadi said, "Our primary task is to reach an agreement with another littoral state, Oman, on these arrangements. We have seen Oman demonstrate a willingness to cooperate and is interested in becoming a partner in these arrangements." He indicated that the temporary passage routes in the Strait of Hormuz will be designated by Iran, and that mine-clearing operations in the area will be entirely Iran's responsibility. He added, "We have warned Oman that other countries have no right to interfere in this matter."

Iran says it has no plans to hold any negotiations with the United States in the coming days.

On the evening of the 29th local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei told the media that Iran has no plans to hold any negotiations with the United States in the coming days. He also revealed that an Iranian expert delegation will travel to Doha to follow up on the implementation of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, but this visit is unrelated to the US delegation's visit to Qatar. (CCTV News)

Iran says mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz will be carried out solely by Iran.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated in a statement on the evening of the 29th local time that, according to the agreement, the mine-clearing work in the Strait of Hormuz will be carried out solely by Iran, and Iran will not cooperate with any other country in this regard. The statement also noted that the current regional situation is "sensitive and complex," and Iran strongly advised France not to further complicate the situation with "provocative actions." Earlier that day, French President Macron announced that France had decided to work with its partners to conduct joint mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the safety of maritime routes and guarantee free passage through the strait. (CCTV News)

The Israeli Defense Minister stated that the Israeli military is prepared to take independent military action against Iraq.

On the 29th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz, in a closed-door meeting with military journalists, outlined Israel's latest geopolitical and military strategy across multiple fronts, including Lebanon, Iran, and the Gaza Strip. Katz explicitly stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is prepared to take independent military action against Iran and reiterated that the IDF will maintain a long-term military presence in southern Lebanon. Katz revealed that the IDF has selected targets within Iran and is prepared to take independent military action, currently closely monitoring the interactions between the United States and Iran. Katz stated that if Iran launches missiles at Israel, Israel will launch a "powerful" response within Iranian territory, declaring that "Israel could be at war with Iran tomorrow." However, he also emphasized that Israel will not interfere with US President Trump's actions against Iran at present. (CCTV News)

Iranian President: Compliance is reciprocal; Iran will only comply if the US does.

Iranian President Sergei Peskov emphasized in a social media post on the evening of June 29th, local time, that "understanding is a two-way street. If the US abides by the memorandum of understanding, we will also fulfill our own obligations." He stated that in the face of "unreasonable boasting and unwarranted threats," Iran's position is to make decisions with rationality and dignity, and to resolutely and fearlessly respond in action. Although the US announced that it would hold US-Iran talks in Doha, Qatar on June 30th, and that Presidential Envoy Witkov and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner would fly to Doha to attend, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae clearly stated that Iran would not hold any level of negotiations with the US in the coming days. Baghae stressed that Iran's current focus is on ensuring the implementation of the relevant provisions of the memorandum of understanding. Iran will send an expert delegation to Doha this week to follow up on the implementation, but the US delegation's trip is unrelated to the mission of the Iranian expert team. Baghae also stated that the US has issued the necessary permits regarding oil sales (Article 10 of the memorandum), and the implementation process regarding the unfreezing of frozen assets (Article 11) is also underway. According to Article 13 of the memorandum, the prerequisite for initiating negotiations on the final agreement is that the relevant core provisions begin to be implemented and continue to be enforced. Therefore, Iran has not yet entered the stage of negotiating the final agreement.

The U.S. Supreme Court rejected President Trump's request to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

On Monday, local time, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Donald Trump firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, upholding the Fed's independence and rejecting an unprecedented power challenge launched by the Republican president. Last August, Trump attempted to remove Cook from the Fed based on unsubstantiated allegations of mortgage fraud. Cook, the first African American woman to serve on the Fed's board, stated that Trump's move was merely a pretext, and the real reason was disagreement on monetary policy. Cook has denied all allegations. A lower court had previously issued a temporary injunction preventing Trump from immediately removing Cook from office until her legal battle over the dismissal was resolved. The Trump administration appealed to the Supreme Court to overturn the injunction, but the justices rejected it. Cook was nominated to the Fed's board in 2022 by former Democratic President Joe Biden, and her term was originally scheduled to run until 2038.

Domestic News


The Hong Kong Trade Development Council has raised its forecast for Hong Kong's export growth this year.

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) announced on the 29th that Hong Kong's exports have exceeded expectations since the beginning of this year, and global demand for technology products continues to grow. Therefore, the HKTDC has raised its 2026 export forecast for Hong Kong, expecting at least 20% growth for the whole year. The HKTDC also released its Export Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2026. Both the current situation index and the expectation index returned to above 50, reaching 51 and 52.4 respectively, indicating that despite continued adjustments in US trade policy and ongoing geopolitical developments, exporters' confidence has improved. Pang Ming, Research Director of the HKTDC, pointed out that despite the continued uncertainty in the Middle East, Hong Kong's exports have continued to rebound recently, benefiting from the technology upswing driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and the resilience of regional trade. The mainland China and ASEAN markets are the most favored by exporters. (Xinhua)

China's corporate credit index stood at 161.53 in May, maintaining a stable trend.

According to the State Administration for Market Regulation, China's corporate credit index was 161.53 in May, indicating that the overall credit level of enterprises remained stable. The top five industries in terms of credit index were finance, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply, residential services, repair and other services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, and manufacturing. Among them, the residential services sector saw the largest increase in its index, entering the top five for the first time this year. The culture, sports and entertainment industry also saw a slight increase in its index score, indicating continued strengthening of its credit resilience. (CCTV News)
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