Is the 2015 script repeating itself? Iran receives a windfall of billions in oil, but its people are more pessimistic than during the war.
2026-06-30 09:56:49
U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on the afternoon of June 29 local time that the United States and Iran will hold talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on June 30.
The agreement between the US and Iran aimed at restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly opening a channel for cash inflows into the Tehran regime.
The oil sales waivers recently approved by the Trump administration allow Iran to receive payments in US dollars, and are expected to generate up to $10 billion in revenue from oil exports alone in the next two months.
However, for ordinary Iranians, runaway inflation, high unemployment, and the hundreds of billions of dollars in reconstruction costs brought about by the war mean that a substantial improvement in the economic situation may still take months or even longer.
This mismatch between "cash arriving but people's livelihoods not necessarily keeping up" is a true reflection of Iran's current economic predicament.
Last week, the Trump administration approved a crucial waiver allowing Iran to sell oil and receive dollar payments. After years of war and devastating sanctions, the Iranian government desperately needs foreign exchange, and this decision opens a lifeline that could earn it billions of dollars.
Data from tanker tracking agencies shows that despite recent tit-for-tat attacks, Iranian oil exports have begun to rebound. Analysts estimate that oil sales alone could bring Iran up to $10 billion in revenue over the next two months. Meanwhile, officials from the United States and other countries have stated that both sides have agreed to end the latest round of conflict and resume negotiations—providing a short-term boost to the Iranian economy.
"In the short term, this is an unexpected bonus, but not enough to restart the broader economy," said Gregory Brou, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group specializing in Iran. He estimates that the oil sales waiver could bring Iran between $8 billion and $10 billion in revenue over 60 days.
However, for ordinary Iranians, the benefits of the agreement have yet to impact their daily lives.
Iran's economy was already struggling with runaway inflation, currency devaluation, and years of deepening international isolation, and the war has only exacerbated the situation. Inflation rose by a staggering 88.6% year-on-year in June; since the outbreak of the conflict, more than one million Iranians have lost their jobs, and the currency has plummeted to a historic low; months of internet censorship have severely disrupted e-commerce and plunged young people into deeper isolation.
Last week, bread prices in Tehran surged. Prices nearly doubled for everything from the oval-shaped Persian bread barbari to lavash baked in a traditional terracotta oven.
Iranian officials estimate the conflict-related damage at around $270 billion. A UN report indicates widespread destruction, with approximately 150,000 civilian buildings damaged, including 51,000 homes in Tehran.
The energy sector has been particularly hard hit. Consulting firm Rezidor Energy estimates that repair costs could reach as high as $19 billion following attacks on natural gas processing plants, refineries, petrochemical centers, and export infrastructure.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that Iran's GDP will shrink by 6.1% this year, the worst economic contraction since the 1980s; the average inflation rate for the year is expected to be close to 70%.
The CEO of an auto parts importer admitted that during the war he laid off employees, sold off inventory to pay off debts, and drastically cut costs to survive. While the interim agreement brought a semblance of calm, instability remains a problem, and he is awaiting a final agreement so he can realistically plan for the future.
The current skepticism among many Iranians stems from the historical repercussions of the 2015 nuclear agreement.
At the time, the agreement reached during President Obama's term helped Iran boost its oil exports and partially reintegrate its economy into global trade by easing sanctions. However, these benefits were short-lived and unevenly distributed: unemployment remained high, and many families saw little lasting improvement in income, employment, and purchasing power. Subsequently, during his first term, Trump announced the US withdrawal from the agreement and reimposed sanctions.
Some Iranians fear history will repeat itself, believing any economic relief will be too short-lived to improve daily life. Worse still, many believe the new oil revenues will be prioritized for consolidating the regime and its allies, leaving ordinary families with no benefit.
A self-employed technician in Isfahan province bluntly stated that he expects the agreement to have little impact on the lives of ordinary people, with the government simply using all the increased revenue for its own benefit. "We are more afraid of a ceasefire, an agreement, and the survival of this regime than of the war itself," he said.
The interim US-Iran agreement provides Iran with a short-term financial respite, but high inflation, reconstruction pressures, and structural problems indicate that economic recovery still faces a long and challenging road. The effectiveness of the agreement depends on the depth of subsequent negotiations and the strength of its implementation, and the global energy market must also closely monitor the stability of the Strait of Hormuz.
Q1: What are the core contents of the US-Iran agreement?
A: The agreement focuses on restoring navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz. The US provides a 60-day oil sanctions waiver, allowing Iran to export oil and receive dollars in return. In exchange, Iran guarantees freedom of navigation in the strait, and both sides agree to end the recent conflict and begin further negotiations. This could bring Iran billions of dollars in revenue in the short term.
Q2: Why is it difficult for oil revenues to quickly improve people's livelihoods?
A: Iran faces 88.6% inflation, a million new unemployed, and a $270 billion reconstruction gap. Cash is primarily flowing into the government, while ordinary citizens are suffering from doubled food prices and currency devaluation, with little prospect of substantial relief in the short term. It will take months to recover from the wounds of war.
Q3: How high will the reconstruction cost? What will be the economic impact?
A: The conflict has caused approximately $270 billion in damage, and $19 billion is needed to repair energy infrastructure. The IMF predicts that GDP will shrink by 6.1% and inflation will be nearly 70% in 2026, with long-term structural obstacles to economic recovery.
Q4: How do historical experiences influence current public attitudes?
A: The 2015 nuclear agreement briefly eased sanctions, but the benefits were unevenly distributed and the United States subsequently withdrew and reimposed sanctions, resulting in low public trust in the new agreement and concerns that income would be prioritized for the regime rather than for people's livelihoods.
Q5: What is the significance of the agreement for the global energy market?
A: Stability in the Strait of Hormuz helps reduce the risk of oil price volatility and increases global supply. However, the temporary nature of the agreement and potential geopolitical risks may still trigger market uncertainty.
The agreement between the US and Iran aimed at restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly opening a channel for cash inflows into the Tehran regime.
The oil sales waivers recently approved by the Trump administration allow Iran to receive payments in US dollars, and are expected to generate up to $10 billion in revenue from oil exports alone in the next two months.
However, for ordinary Iranians, runaway inflation, high unemployment, and the hundreds of billions of dollars in reconstruction costs brought about by the war mean that a substantial improvement in the economic situation may still take months or even longer.
This mismatch between "cash arriving but people's livelihoods not necessarily keeping up" is a true reflection of Iran's current economic predicament.
Short-term cash inflow: Oil revenues accelerate their return
Last week, the Trump administration approved a crucial waiver allowing Iran to sell oil and receive dollar payments. After years of war and devastating sanctions, the Iranian government desperately needs foreign exchange, and this decision opens a lifeline that could earn it billions of dollars.
Data from tanker tracking agencies shows that despite recent tit-for-tat attacks, Iranian oil exports have begun to rebound. Analysts estimate that oil sales alone could bring Iran up to $10 billion in revenue over the next two months. Meanwhile, officials from the United States and other countries have stated that both sides have agreed to end the latest round of conflict and resume negotiations—providing a short-term boost to the Iranian economy.
"In the short term, this is an unexpected bonus, but not enough to restart the broader economy," said Gregory Brou, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group specializing in Iran. He estimates that the oil sales waiver could bring Iran between $8 billion and $10 billion in revenue over 60 days.
People's livelihood pains: Inflation at 88.6%, millions unemployed, bread prices doubled
However, for ordinary Iranians, the benefits of the agreement have yet to impact their daily lives.
Iran's economy was already struggling with runaway inflation, currency devaluation, and years of deepening international isolation, and the war has only exacerbated the situation. Inflation rose by a staggering 88.6% year-on-year in June; since the outbreak of the conflict, more than one million Iranians have lost their jobs, and the currency has plummeted to a historic low; months of internet censorship have severely disrupted e-commerce and plunged young people into deeper isolation.
Last week, bread prices in Tehran surged. Prices nearly doubled for everything from the oval-shaped Persian bread barbari to lavash baked in a traditional terracotta oven.
Deep-seated dilemma: A $270 billion reconstruction gap and structural trauma
Iranian officials estimate the conflict-related damage at around $270 billion. A UN report indicates widespread destruction, with approximately 150,000 civilian buildings damaged, including 51,000 homes in Tehran.
The energy sector has been particularly hard hit. Consulting firm Rezidor Energy estimates that repair costs could reach as high as $19 billion following attacks on natural gas processing plants, refineries, petrochemical centers, and export infrastructure.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that Iran's GDP will shrink by 6.1% this year, the worst economic contraction since the 1980s; the average inflation rate for the year is expected to be close to 70%.
The CEO of an auto parts importer admitted that during the war he laid off employees, sold off inventory to pay off debts, and drastically cut costs to survive. While the interim agreement brought a semblance of calm, instability remains a problem, and he is awaiting a final agreement so he can realistically plan for the future.
Historical shadows and trust deficits: Lessons from the 2015 nuclear agreement
The current skepticism among many Iranians stems from the historical repercussions of the 2015 nuclear agreement.
At the time, the agreement reached during President Obama's term helped Iran boost its oil exports and partially reintegrate its economy into global trade by easing sanctions. However, these benefits were short-lived and unevenly distributed: unemployment remained high, and many families saw little lasting improvement in income, employment, and purchasing power. Subsequently, during his first term, Trump announced the US withdrawal from the agreement and reimposed sanctions.
Some Iranians fear history will repeat itself, believing any economic relief will be too short-lived to improve daily life. Worse still, many believe the new oil revenues will be prioritized for consolidating the regime and its allies, leaving ordinary families with no benefit.
A self-employed technician in Isfahan province bluntly stated that he expects the agreement to have little impact on the lives of ordinary people, with the government simply using all the increased revenue for its own benefit. "We are more afraid of a ceasefire, an agreement, and the survival of this regime than of the war itself," he said.
Editor's Summary
The interim US-Iran agreement provides Iran with a short-term financial respite, but high inflation, reconstruction pressures, and structural problems indicate that economic recovery still faces a long and challenging road. The effectiveness of the agreement depends on the depth of subsequent negotiations and the strength of its implementation, and the global energy market must also closely monitor the stability of the Strait of Hormuz.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: What are the core contents of the US-Iran agreement?
A: The agreement focuses on restoring navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz. The US provides a 60-day oil sanctions waiver, allowing Iran to export oil and receive dollars in return. In exchange, Iran guarantees freedom of navigation in the strait, and both sides agree to end the recent conflict and begin further negotiations. This could bring Iran billions of dollars in revenue in the short term.
Q2: Why is it difficult for oil revenues to quickly improve people's livelihoods?
A: Iran faces 88.6% inflation, a million new unemployed, and a $270 billion reconstruction gap. Cash is primarily flowing into the government, while ordinary citizens are suffering from doubled food prices and currency devaluation, with little prospect of substantial relief in the short term. It will take months to recover from the wounds of war.
Q3: How high will the reconstruction cost? What will be the economic impact?
A: The conflict has caused approximately $270 billion in damage, and $19 billion is needed to repair energy infrastructure. The IMF predicts that GDP will shrink by 6.1% and inflation will be nearly 70% in 2026, with long-term structural obstacles to economic recovery.
Q4: How do historical experiences influence current public attitudes?
A: The 2015 nuclear agreement briefly eased sanctions, but the benefits were unevenly distributed and the United States subsequently withdrew and reimposed sanctions, resulting in low public trust in the new agreement and concerns that income would be prioritized for the regime rather than for people's livelihoods.
Q5: What is the significance of the agreement for the global energy market?
A: Stability in the Strait of Hormuz helps reduce the risk of oil price volatility and increases global supply. However, the temporary nature of the agreement and potential geopolitical risks may still trigger market uncertainty.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
