July 8th Financial Breakfast: US military launches series of strikes against Iran, gold prices fall and test the $4100 mark; US reinstates sanctions on Iranian oil, oil prices surge by over 5%.
2026-07-08 07:33:01
On Wednesday (July 8, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,105 per ounce, and may test the $4,100 per ounce level during the day. Investors are focused on the escalating hostilities in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, and are preparing for the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for policy guidance. The US military announced the start of a series of strikes against Iran, and the US reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil, raising geopolitical premium risks and causing oil prices to rise by more than 5%. US crude oil is currently trading around $72.45 per barrel.
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.45% to 7,503.85, the Nasdaq down 1.16% to 25,818.69, and the Dow Jones down 0.25% to 52,925.15. The Dow briefly touched a record high during the session. The decline was dragged down by a sharp drop in chip stocks.
Samsung Electronics, the memory chip giant, reported earnings that fell far short of market expectations, triggering a chain reaction of declines in chip stocks across Asia and the United States. Micron Technology fell 4.7%, SanDisk fell 7.3%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 4.65%.
Furthermore, DeepSeek's development of its own AI chip has further exacerbated concerns about overvalued chip stocks. Investors worry that the previous surge in stock prices driven by the AI data center construction boom has led to excessive valuations, and a clear market rotation is underway. SpaceX, as a Nasdaq 100 component stock, fell nearly 7% on its first day of trading. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its first meeting under new Chairman Warsh on Wednesday, and the market will be focused on its policy signals.
Gold prices fell 1.42% on Tuesday, with spot gold at $4,105.70 an ounce, as investors focused on escalating hostilities in the Middle East pushing up oil prices and prepared for the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for guidance on the policy outlook.
Despite gold prices hitting a two-week high on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data prompted the market to lower its near-term interest rate hike expectations, Peter Grant, vice president of Zaner Metals, said the Federal Reserve remains very focused on curbing inflation and that maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period remains the most likely path. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders still expect a 60% probability of a rate hike in September.
In the Middle East, two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran stated that it would not hold peace talks unless Trump stopped threatening to restart the war. After the news broke, oil prices rose slightly, exacerbating inflation concerns.
Meanwhile, China's central bank's gold reserves stood at 75.44 million ounces at the end of June, an increase of 480,000 ounces from the end of the previous month, marking the 20th consecutive month of increase. However, the dollar-denominated reserves decreased by $37.03 billion to $303.72 billion. According to state media, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee announced that Hong Kong's central gold clearing system officially began trial operation on Tuesday and launched the first phase of "physical connectivity" in cooperation with the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Hong Kong is also considering developing new RMB-denominated gold futures contracts, with delivery support provided by the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Spot silver fell 3.33% to $59.95 per ounce.
Oil prices rose more than 5% on Tuesday, with U.S. crude hitting a one-week high of $72.36 a barrel, after a series of U.S. military strikes against Iran exacerbated concerns that the fragile ceasefire agreement might collapse.
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that the airstrikes on Iran were retaliatory against Iran’s attack on three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, further increasing geopolitical risk premiums. In addition, the U.S. reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil, significantly deepening market concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to crude oil supplies.
The dollar edged higher on Tuesday, with the dollar index rising 0.22% to 101.08, while the yen remained near a 40-year low, with the dollar trading at 162.26 yen. Markets are closely watching whether Japanese authorities will intervene to support the yen.
The dollar reacted mutedly to reports that Iran fired missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, hitting two oil tankers. Mark Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, said the ceasefire agreement, while prone to cracks, is not over; neither the US nor Iran wants the conflict to escalate, and the market continues to fluctuate within a familiar range.
The euro fell 0.11% to $1.1427 after New York Fed President Williams said concerns about inflationary pressures had eased, while ECB Governing Council member Panetta said the eurozone's economic outlook remained fragile. The U.S. trade deficit jumped 42.2% to $77.6 billion in May, below the expected $78.5 billion.
Investors are focused on the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting on Wednesday, the first meeting since Chairman Warsh took office, hoping to glean insights into policymakers' views on forward guidance. Last week's much weaker-than-expected jobs report slightly dampened investors' expectations for a Fed rate hike this year, with the market now anticipating a rate hike of about 26 basis points by December, down from about 38 basis points a week earlier.
The US military says it has begun a series of strikes against Iran.
On July 7 local time, the U.S. Central Command announced that its forces had initiated a series of powerful strikes against Iran in response to Iranian targeting and attacks on commercial shipping operated by civilian crews in international waterways. The U.S. Central Command stated that the strikes were a response to Iranian attacks on three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran's aggression was "unjustified, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement."
French far-right leader announces presidential candidacy
On the evening of July 7 local time, Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally and head of its parliamentary group in the French National Assembly, announced on France 1 television that she will run for president in 2027. Le Pen has been leading in recent polls in France. She has run for president three times, reaching the second round in the 2017 and 2022 elections, but lost to incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in both. Earlier that day, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld the previous guilty verdict in Le Pen's embezzlement case, but adjusted her sentence, thus qualifying her to run in 2027. (CCTV International News)
The United States reinstates sanctions on Iranian oil.
According to a statement released by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on July 7, the U.S. revoked a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil, allowing related final transactions to continue until midnight Eastern Time on July 17. International oil prices rose in response. Iran has not yet responded. According to an anonymous U.S. official, initial indications suggest that "Iran recently fired on three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz," an action that is "completely unacceptable" and will have consequences. The U.S. official also stated that despite the escalating situation, U.S. negotiators are "still sincerely working towards a final agreement with Iran." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter announced on June 22 that, as part of the framework for U.S.-Iran negotiations, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil. According to the announcement released that day by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, transactions involving the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products, previously prohibited by multiple U.S. executive orders and regulations, have been exempted until August 21, 2026. (CCTV International News)
Trump again claims Greenland "should be under U.S. control."
Ahead of a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on July 7, US President Donald Trump reiterated his claim that Greenland "should be controlled by the United States," not Denmark. Answering a reporter's question, Trump said, "Greenland is useless to Denmark, and Denmark hasn't really spent money to help Greenland," but Greenland is important to the United States. Trump linked this issue to the US military presence in Europe, threatening to withdraw all US troops from Europe because Europe is "very different" than it was 20 years ago. (Xinhua)
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July is 26.7%, and the probability of a rate hike this year is 84.2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 15.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 40.6%, and the probability of at least a 50 basis point rate hike is 43.6%.
my country's artificial intelligence industry continues to grow.
At a press conference held on July 7th for the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and the High-Level Meeting on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the artificial intelligence industry is continuously expanding, "AI + manufacturing" is deepening, and the AI ecosystem is constantly optimizing. It is estimated that by 2025, the core AI industry in my country will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan. Large-scale models, intelligent agents, and AI chips are rapidly iterating, and the annual output of humanoid robots is expected to exceed 100,000 units this year. To date, my country has developed nearly 200 key standards in the field of AI. Chinese companies are actively embracing the open-source paradigm, with large-scale model downloads ranking first globally. Open-source communities such as AtomGit have gathered over 11 million registered users, and the AI ecosystem is continuously optimizing. (CCTV News)
The National Development and Reform Commission will release two achievements at the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference.
The 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence were held in Shanghai from July 17 to 20. Wang Ruomeng, Deputy Director of the Innovation and High-Tech Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated at a press conference in Shanghai on July 7 that the NDRC would release two outcomes at this year's conference. First, the "China's Smart World: A Case Study Collection." Since 2024, the NDRC has released case studies for three consecutive years, sharing my country's accumulated products, technologies, and practical experience in "AI+" initiatives with the world. This year's cases cover more than 20 countries, involving agriculture, industry, energy, and scientific research. Second, the "Action Plan for Cooperation and Development in Artificial Intelligence," which includes eight aspects such as inclusive intelligent computing power, open-source ecosystem sharing, AI empowerment, and security governance cooperation. It aims to strengthen communication and exchange with other countries in areas such as technological innovation, industrial application, and security governance.
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.45% to 7,503.85, the Nasdaq down 1.16% to 25,818.69, and the Dow Jones down 0.25% to 52,925.15. The Dow briefly touched a record high during the session. The decline was dragged down by a sharp drop in chip stocks.
Samsung Electronics, the memory chip giant, reported earnings that fell far short of market expectations, triggering a chain reaction of declines in chip stocks across Asia and the United States. Micron Technology fell 4.7%, SanDisk fell 7.3%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 4.65%.
Furthermore, DeepSeek's development of its own AI chip has further exacerbated concerns about overvalued chip stocks. Investors worry that the previous surge in stock prices driven by the AI data center construction boom has led to excessive valuations, and a clear market rotation is underway. SpaceX, as a Nasdaq 100 component stock, fell nearly 7% on its first day of trading. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its first meeting under new Chairman Warsh on Wednesday, and the market will be focused on its policy signals.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell 1.42% on Tuesday, with spot gold at $4,105.70 an ounce, as investors focused on escalating hostilities in the Middle East pushing up oil prices and prepared for the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for guidance on the policy outlook.
Despite gold prices hitting a two-week high on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data prompted the market to lower its near-term interest rate hike expectations, Peter Grant, vice president of Zaner Metals, said the Federal Reserve remains very focused on curbing inflation and that maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period remains the most likely path. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders still expect a 60% probability of a rate hike in September.
In the Middle East, two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran stated that it would not hold peace talks unless Trump stopped threatening to restart the war. After the news broke, oil prices rose slightly, exacerbating inflation concerns.
Meanwhile, China's central bank's gold reserves stood at 75.44 million ounces at the end of June, an increase of 480,000 ounces from the end of the previous month, marking the 20th consecutive month of increase. However, the dollar-denominated reserves decreased by $37.03 billion to $303.72 billion. According to state media, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee announced that Hong Kong's central gold clearing system officially began trial operation on Tuesday and launched the first phase of "physical connectivity" in cooperation with the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Hong Kong is also considering developing new RMB-denominated gold futures contracts, with delivery support provided by the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Spot silver fell 3.33% to $59.95 per ounce.
oil market
Oil prices rose more than 5% on Tuesday, with U.S. crude hitting a one-week high of $72.36 a barrel, after a series of U.S. military strikes against Iran exacerbated concerns that the fragile ceasefire agreement might collapse.
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that the airstrikes on Iran were retaliatory against Iran’s attack on three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, further increasing geopolitical risk premiums. In addition, the U.S. reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil, significantly deepening market concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to crude oil supplies.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar edged higher on Tuesday, with the dollar index rising 0.22% to 101.08, while the yen remained near a 40-year low, with the dollar trading at 162.26 yen. Markets are closely watching whether Japanese authorities will intervene to support the yen.
The dollar reacted mutedly to reports that Iran fired missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, hitting two oil tankers. Mark Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, said the ceasefire agreement, while prone to cracks, is not over; neither the US nor Iran wants the conflict to escalate, and the market continues to fluctuate within a familiar range.
The euro fell 0.11% to $1.1427 after New York Fed President Williams said concerns about inflationary pressures had eased, while ECB Governing Council member Panetta said the eurozone's economic outlook remained fragile. The U.S. trade deficit jumped 42.2% to $77.6 billion in May, below the expected $78.5 billion.
Investors are focused on the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting on Wednesday, the first meeting since Chairman Warsh took office, hoping to glean insights into policymakers' views on forward guidance. Last week's much weaker-than-expected jobs report slightly dampened investors' expectations for a Fed rate hike this year, with the market now anticipating a rate hike of about 26 basis points by December, down from about 38 basis points a week earlier.
International News
The US military says it has begun a series of strikes against Iran.
On July 7 local time, the U.S. Central Command announced that its forces had initiated a series of powerful strikes against Iran in response to Iranian targeting and attacks on commercial shipping operated by civilian crews in international waterways. The U.S. Central Command stated that the strikes were a response to Iranian attacks on three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran's aggression was "unjustified, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement."
French far-right leader announces presidential candidacy
On the evening of July 7 local time, Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally and head of its parliamentary group in the French National Assembly, announced on France 1 television that she will run for president in 2027. Le Pen has been leading in recent polls in France. She has run for president three times, reaching the second round in the 2017 and 2022 elections, but lost to incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in both. Earlier that day, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld the previous guilty verdict in Le Pen's embezzlement case, but adjusted her sentence, thus qualifying her to run in 2027. (CCTV International News)
The United States reinstates sanctions on Iranian oil.
According to a statement released by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on July 7, the U.S. revoked a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil, allowing related final transactions to continue until midnight Eastern Time on July 17. International oil prices rose in response. Iran has not yet responded. According to an anonymous U.S. official, initial indications suggest that "Iran recently fired on three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz," an action that is "completely unacceptable" and will have consequences. The U.S. official also stated that despite the escalating situation, U.S. negotiators are "still sincerely working towards a final agreement with Iran." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter announced on June 22 that, as part of the framework for U.S.-Iran negotiations, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil. According to the announcement released that day by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, transactions involving the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products, previously prohibited by multiple U.S. executive orders and regulations, have been exempted until August 21, 2026. (CCTV International News)
Trump again claims Greenland "should be under U.S. control."
Ahead of a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on July 7, US President Donald Trump reiterated his claim that Greenland "should be controlled by the United States," not Denmark. Answering a reporter's question, Trump said, "Greenland is useless to Denmark, and Denmark hasn't really spent money to help Greenland," but Greenland is important to the United States. Trump linked this issue to the US military presence in Europe, threatening to withdraw all US troops from Europe because Europe is "very different" than it was 20 years ago. (Xinhua)
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July is 26.7%, and the probability of a rate hike this year is 84.2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 15.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 40.6%, and the probability of at least a 50 basis point rate hike is 43.6%.
Domestic News
my country's artificial intelligence industry continues to grow.
At a press conference held on July 7th for the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and the High-Level Meeting on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence, an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the artificial intelligence industry is continuously expanding, "AI + manufacturing" is deepening, and the AI ecosystem is constantly optimizing. It is estimated that by 2025, the core AI industry in my country will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan. Large-scale models, intelligent agents, and AI chips are rapidly iterating, and the annual output of humanoid robots is expected to exceed 100,000 units this year. To date, my country has developed nearly 200 key standards in the field of AI. Chinese companies are actively embracing the open-source paradigm, with large-scale model downloads ranking first globally. Open-source communities such as AtomGit have gathered over 11 million registered users, and the AI ecosystem is continuously optimizing. (CCTV News)
The National Development and Reform Commission will release two achievements at the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference.
The 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence were held in Shanghai from July 17 to 20. Wang Ruomeng, Deputy Director of the Innovation and High-Tech Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated at a press conference in Shanghai on July 7 that the NDRC would release two outcomes at this year's conference. First, the "China's Smart World: A Case Study Collection." Since 2024, the NDRC has released case studies for three consecutive years, sharing my country's accumulated products, technologies, and practical experience in "AI+" initiatives with the world. This year's cases cover more than 20 countries, involving agriculture, industry, energy, and scientific research. Second, the "Action Plan for Cooperation and Development in Artificial Intelligence," which includes eight aspects such as inclusive intelligent computing power, open-source ecosystem sharing, AI empowerment, and security governance cooperation. It aims to strengthen communication and exchange with other countries in areas such as technological innovation, industrial application, and security governance.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
