The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is on the verge of collapse: After attacks on three oil tankers, the US launched airstrikes of "four to five times" the scale, causing oil prices to rebound to a near two-week high.
2026-07-08 09:19:32
This week, the Strait of Hormuz once again became the eye of a global geopolitical storm. Following attacks on three merchant ships within 24 hours, the US military launched a new round of large-scale airstrikes against targets in Iran on the evening of July 7th, reportedly four to five times the scale and intensity of the strikes conducted 10 days prior. Simultaneously, the US Treasury Department revoked Iran's oil sales permits, which had only been in effect for two weeks, causing international oil prices to surge, with Brent crude breaking through $76 per barrel. This series of actions presents the temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran in mid-June with its most severe test since its signing.
The incident was sparked in the Strait of Hormuz and the adjacent Gulf of Oman. The UK's Office for Maritime Trade Operations issued a report on July 7 stating that an oil tanker caught fire after being struck by an "unidentified projectile" east of Lima, Oman. Subsequently, more information about the attacked vessels emerged.
Multiple sources have confirmed that three merchant ships were attacked in the area within 24 hours. Among them was the Qatari-flagged supertanker "Al Rekayyat," owned and managed by Qatar's state-owned gas shipping company Nakilat. The ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman, at the exit of the Strait of Hormuz, with a shot hitting above the port engine room, causing a fire in the engine room and posing a risk of explosion. All crew members have been safely evacuated. Another Saudi-flagged supertanker, the "Wedyan," was also damaged in waters near Oman; the cause of the incident is still unclear.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) of the United Nations stated that this is the day with the most attacks in the Strait of Hormuz since the end of April 2026. US officials said that initial indications suggest Iran fired on the three merchant ships. Iran, through its Persian Gulf Straits Authority, recently emphasized that all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz must follow designated routes, and those that deviate from these routes "do not enjoy security guarantees." An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson also stated that merchant ships using routes not coordinated by Iran or tampering with ship tracking equipment will face risks.
Hours after the attack on the ship, the U.S. military acted swiftly. U.S. Central Command issued a statement on social media saying it had initiated a “series of powerful strikes” against Iran in response to Iran’s attack on a merchant ship carrying innocent civilians in international waterways. The statement noted that Iran’s attack was “unjustified, extremely dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement.”
According to a U.S. official, the targets of the strike included Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and drone launch sites. The official stated that the scale and intensity of the strike were "four to five times" greater than the one 10 days prior, and that it "will not end anytime soon," with the aim of making Iran "pay a heavy price."
According to Iranian sources, explosions were heard in multiple locations in southern Iran, including Qeshm Island, Sirikit, and the port of Bandar Abbas, in the early hours of July 8th local time. Commercial and fishing ports in Sirikit were hit by artillery fire. Iranian state television reported that the US attack on Sirikit has resulted in multiple injuries. Iranian President Peshizian, who was scheduled to attend the funeral of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei in Iraq, returned home early after arriving in Iraq.
In addition to military strikes, the United States has also unleashed the powerful weapon of economic sanctions. On July 7, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a notice announcing the revocation of a general license issued on June 21—a license that originally authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, and petroleum products, valid until August 21.
The newly issued license stipulates that, effective July 7, 2026, the original license will be "completely revoked and replaced." All final transactions related to Iranian oil must be completed by midnight Eastern Time on July 17. This means Iran has only 10 days to clear its existing oil trading inventory.
International oil prices jumped sharply after the US announced the revocation of oil sales permits. Both WTI and Brent crude rebounded by more than 5% on Tuesday, reaching near two-week highs, while European natural gas futures surged by more than 9% at one point. On Wednesday (July 8) in Asian trading, Brent crude traded in a narrow range, currently hovering around $75.64 per barrel.
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding reached between the US and Iran in mid-June was a 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement in which both sides agreed to halt military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In return, the US agreed to lift its naval blockade of Iran and allow Iranian oil exports. However, this memorandum, which is only one and a half pages long and contains fewer than 800 English words, was viewed from the outset by observers as a "mid-game break" rather than a peace treaty.
The US move to revoke the oil sales permit directly negates one of the core concessions made by Iran in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement early on July 8th, local time, condemning the US move to lift the temporary suspension of sanctions, stating that it "violates the Iran-US Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" and that the US "should bear responsibility for the consequences." The Iranian Foreign Ministry also stated that Iran will take "any measures it deems necessary" to safeguard its interests and national security.
In an interview with state television, Mohsen Rezaei, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, stated, "It is clear that the United States will lead negotiations with Iran to failure," and claimed that the US is attempting to "open an alternative route" for its ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that, according to the terms of the temporary ceasefire memorandum, "negotiations for a final agreement will not begin" if the threats persist.
Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Trump said, "We either make a deal or we get the job done. We can blow up their bridges and cut off their energy supplies in an hour." Trump also expressed "disappointment" at the lack of support from NATO allies in the action against Iraq.
Against this backdrop, France and the United Kingdom are pushing forward a multinational maritime security mission to ensure navigational safety in the Strait of Hormuz. On July 3, the UK and France issued a joint statement saying that Oman had agreed to cooperate with the two countries to ensure navigational safety in its territorial waters, and that the two countries were "ready to deploy a larger-scale multinational joint military operation." France has already deployed mine countermeasures forces to the Middle East.
However, the prospects for this initiative are uncertain. Iran has repeatedly opposed the presence of foreign troops in the region and has used this issue as leverage in negotiations with Washington. One European diplomat bluntly stated, "Ultimately, everyone will have reservations unless Iran gives its approval." Another diplomat indicated that the meetings were "more symbolic than anything else."
The Strait of Hormuz is the vital passage for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. The combined impact of the attacks on three merchant ships, the US airstrikes, and the lifting of oil sanctions has rendered the temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran in June virtually meaningless. Market reactions show that both Brent crude and WTI crude oil prices rebounded by more than 5%, and European natural gas futures surged by as much as 9.1%, indicating that investors are pricing in the disruption of passage through the strait.
From a political perspective, the US revoking the oil sales permit and demanding the completion of the final deal by July 17 effectively closed the window for the most substantial economic concessions in the interim agreement; Iran responded with "bear the consequences" and "negotiations terminated." The prospects for the Franco-British-led multinational escort initiative are now uncertain due to strong Iranian opposition.
In the coming weeks, the July 17 deadline for the oil trade to close and the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire agreement will create dual time pressures. The struggle between the US and Iran on military, economic, and diplomatic fronts will determine the ultimate fate of this global energy "choke point."
Question 1: Why did the United States revoke the Iranian oil sales permit that had only been in effect for two weeks?
A: The immediate cause was the attacks on three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters on July 7th, including the Qatari giant LNG carrier "Al Rekayyat" and the Saudi supertanker "Wedyan." The United States accused Iran of carrying out these attacks. U.S. Central Command stated that Iran's actions "clearly violated the ceasefire agreement." Revoking oil licenses is a crucial means for the United States to exert economic pressure on Iran, in addition to military strikes—oil revenue accounts for approximately 50% of Iran's fiscal revenue, and cutting off this source of income is one of the most effective ways to exert pressure on Iran.
Question 2: How does this US airstrike differ from previous strikes?
A: According to US officials, the scale and intensity of this airstrike were "four to five times" greater than the strikes that occurred 10 days prior to July 8th. Targets included Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and drone launch sites. One US official stated that this strike was "not a reciprocal response," but rather a "punishment" of Iran, and that it "will not end anytime soon." In terms of actual impact, explosions were heard in multiple locations in southern Iran, including Qeshm Island, Sirik, and Bandar Abbas. The attack on Sirik has already resulted in several injuries.
Question 3: Is the current ceasefire agreement still in effect?
A: The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding reached in mid-June was a 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement aimed at halting military operations and creating conditions for negotiations on a final agreement. However, with the US launching large-scale airstrikes and revoking oil sales licenses, both of the agreement's core pillars—the ceasefire and economic concessions—have been substantially undermined. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has condemned the US for "violating the memorandum"; Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that if the threats continue, "negotiations for a final agreement will not begin"; and an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader went even further, saying that the US "will lead the negotiations to failure." In practical terms, this agreement is on the verge of collapse.
Question 4: What does this event mean for the global energy market?
A: The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. This incident has already caused Brent crude to break through $76 per barrel, WTI to rise above $72, and European natural gas futures to surge by as much as 9.1%. Market analysts point out that the attack "reminds the market that the passage through the strait remains very vulnerable." If the obstruction of the strait continues or escalates, the global energy supply chain will face severe shocks, and oil prices could rise further. Furthermore, a rebound in energy prices could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, creating a ripple effect on global financial markets.
Question 5: Will the multinational maritime escort operation promoted by France and Britain be successful?
A: On July 3, France and the UK announced that Oman had agreed to cooperate with them to ensure the safety of navigation in their territorial waters, and that the UK and France were "ready to deploy a larger-scale multinational joint military operation." However, this initiative faces strong opposition from Iran—which has repeatedly refused to allow foreign troops to be stationed in the region and has used this issue as a bargaining chip. One European diplomat bluntly stated, "Everyone will have reservations unless Iran gives its approval." Another diplomat indicated that the relevant meetings were "more symbolic." Therefore, without Iran's tacit approval, the actual effectiveness and sustainability of the multinational escort operation are highly questionable.
At 09:17 Beijing time, Brent crude oil was trading at $75.60 per barrel.
Three merchant ships were attacked in succession within 24 hours, and a fire broke out in the engine room of a Qatari LNG ship.
The incident was sparked in the Strait of Hormuz and the adjacent Gulf of Oman. The UK's Office for Maritime Trade Operations issued a report on July 7 stating that an oil tanker caught fire after being struck by an "unidentified projectile" east of Lima, Oman. Subsequently, more information about the attacked vessels emerged.
Multiple sources have confirmed that three merchant ships were attacked in the area within 24 hours. Among them was the Qatari-flagged supertanker "Al Rekayyat," owned and managed by Qatar's state-owned gas shipping company Nakilat. The ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman, at the exit of the Strait of Hormuz, with a shot hitting above the port engine room, causing a fire in the engine room and posing a risk of explosion. All crew members have been safely evacuated. Another Saudi-flagged supertanker, the "Wedyan," was also damaged in waters near Oman; the cause of the incident is still unclear.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) of the United Nations stated that this is the day with the most attacks in the Strait of Hormuz since the end of April 2026. US officials said that initial indications suggest Iran fired on the three merchant ships. Iran, through its Persian Gulf Straits Authority, recently emphasized that all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz must follow designated routes, and those that deviate from these routes "do not enjoy security guarantees." An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson also stated that merchant ships using routes not coordinated by Iran or tampering with ship tracking equipment will face risks.
The US launched airstrikes four to five times larger than Iran's own, and explosions were heard in multiple locations across the country.
Hours after the attack on the ship, the U.S. military acted swiftly. U.S. Central Command issued a statement on social media saying it had initiated a “series of powerful strikes” against Iran in response to Iran’s attack on a merchant ship carrying innocent civilians in international waterways. The statement noted that Iran’s attack was “unjustified, extremely dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement.”
According to a U.S. official, the targets of the strike included Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and drone launch sites. The official stated that the scale and intensity of the strike were "four to five times" greater than the one 10 days prior, and that it "will not end anytime soon," with the aim of making Iran "pay a heavy price."
According to Iranian sources, explosions were heard in multiple locations in southern Iran, including Qeshm Island, Sirikit, and the port of Bandar Abbas, in the early hours of July 8th local time. Commercial and fishing ports in Sirikit were hit by artillery fire. Iranian state television reported that the US attack on Sirikit has resulted in multiple injuries. Iranian President Peshizian, who was scheduled to attend the funeral of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei in Iraq, returned home early after arriving in Iraq.
The US revoked Iran's oil sales permit, causing oil prices to surge by more than 5%.
In addition to military strikes, the United States has also unleashed the powerful weapon of economic sanctions. On July 7, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a notice announcing the revocation of a general license issued on June 21—a license that originally authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, and petroleum products, valid until August 21.
The newly issued license stipulates that, effective July 7, 2026, the original license will be "completely revoked and replaced." All final transactions related to Iranian oil must be completed by midnight Eastern Time on July 17. This means Iran has only 10 days to clear its existing oil trading inventory.
International oil prices jumped sharply after the US announced the revocation of oil sales permits. Both WTI and Brent crude rebounded by more than 5% on Tuesday, reaching near two-week highs, while European natural gas futures surged by more than 9% at one point. On Wednesday (July 8) in Asian trading, Brent crude traded in a narrow range, currently hovering around $75.64 per barrel.
The ceasefire agreement is on the verge of collapse, with all parties taking a hard line.
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding reached between the US and Iran in mid-June was a 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement in which both sides agreed to halt military operations and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In return, the US agreed to lift its naval blockade of Iran and allow Iranian oil exports. However, this memorandum, which is only one and a half pages long and contains fewer than 800 English words, was viewed from the outset by observers as a "mid-game break" rather than a peace treaty.
The US move to revoke the oil sales permit directly negates one of the core concessions made by Iran in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement early on July 8th, local time, condemning the US move to lift the temporary suspension of sanctions, stating that it "violates the Iran-US Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" and that the US "should bear responsibility for the consequences." The Iranian Foreign Ministry also stated that Iran will take "any measures it deems necessary" to safeguard its interests and national security.
In an interview with state television, Mohsen Rezaei, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, stated, "It is clear that the United States will lead negotiations with Iran to failure," and claimed that the US is attempting to "open an alternative route" for its ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that, according to the terms of the temporary ceasefire memorandum, "negotiations for a final agreement will not begin" if the threats persist.
Speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Trump said, "We either make a deal or we get the job done. We can blow up their bridges and cut off their energy supplies in an hour." Trump also expressed "disappointment" at the lack of support from NATO allies in the action against Iraq.
France and Britain push for multinational escort missions, Iran strongly opposes.
Against this backdrop, France and the United Kingdom are pushing forward a multinational maritime security mission to ensure navigational safety in the Strait of Hormuz. On July 3, the UK and France issued a joint statement saying that Oman had agreed to cooperate with the two countries to ensure navigational safety in its territorial waters, and that the two countries were "ready to deploy a larger-scale multinational joint military operation." France has already deployed mine countermeasures forces to the Middle East.
However, the prospects for this initiative are uncertain. Iran has repeatedly opposed the presence of foreign troops in the region and has used this issue as leverage in negotiations with Washington. One European diplomat bluntly stated, "Ultimately, everyone will have reservations unless Iran gives its approval." Another diplomat indicated that the meetings were "more symbolic than anything else."
Editor's Summary
The Strait of Hormuz is the vital passage for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. The combined impact of the attacks on three merchant ships, the US airstrikes, and the lifting of oil sanctions has rendered the temporary ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran in June virtually meaningless. Market reactions show that both Brent crude and WTI crude oil prices rebounded by more than 5%, and European natural gas futures surged by as much as 9.1%, indicating that investors are pricing in the disruption of passage through the strait.
From a political perspective, the US revoking the oil sales permit and demanding the completion of the final deal by July 17 effectively closed the window for the most substantial economic concessions in the interim agreement; Iran responded with "bear the consequences" and "negotiations terminated." The prospects for the Franco-British-led multinational escort initiative are now uncertain due to strong Iranian opposition.
In the coming weeks, the July 17 deadline for the oil trade to close and the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire agreement will create dual time pressures. The struggle between the US and Iran on military, economic, and diplomatic fronts will determine the ultimate fate of this global energy "choke point."
Frequently Asked Questions
Question 1: Why did the United States revoke the Iranian oil sales permit that had only been in effect for two weeks?
A: The immediate cause was the attacks on three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters on July 7th, including the Qatari giant LNG carrier "Al Rekayyat" and the Saudi supertanker "Wedyan." The United States accused Iran of carrying out these attacks. U.S. Central Command stated that Iran's actions "clearly violated the ceasefire agreement." Revoking oil licenses is a crucial means for the United States to exert economic pressure on Iran, in addition to military strikes—oil revenue accounts for approximately 50% of Iran's fiscal revenue, and cutting off this source of income is one of the most effective ways to exert pressure on Iran.
Question 2: How does this US airstrike differ from previous strikes?
A: According to US officials, the scale and intensity of this airstrike were "four to five times" greater than the strikes that occurred 10 days prior to July 8th. Targets included Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and drone launch sites. One US official stated that this strike was "not a reciprocal response," but rather a "punishment" of Iran, and that it "will not end anytime soon." In terms of actual impact, explosions were heard in multiple locations in southern Iran, including Qeshm Island, Sirik, and Bandar Abbas. The attack on Sirik has already resulted in several injuries.
Question 3: Is the current ceasefire agreement still in effect?
A: The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding reached in mid-June was a 60-day temporary ceasefire agreement aimed at halting military operations and creating conditions for negotiations on a final agreement. However, with the US launching large-scale airstrikes and revoking oil sales licenses, both of the agreement's core pillars—the ceasefire and economic concessions—have been substantially undermined. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has condemned the US for "violating the memorandum"; Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that if the threats continue, "negotiations for a final agreement will not begin"; and an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader went even further, saying that the US "will lead the negotiations to failure." In practical terms, this agreement is on the verge of collapse.
Question 4: What does this event mean for the global energy market?
A: The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. This incident has already caused Brent crude to break through $76 per barrel, WTI to rise above $72, and European natural gas futures to surge by as much as 9.1%. Market analysts point out that the attack "reminds the market that the passage through the strait remains very vulnerable." If the obstruction of the strait continues or escalates, the global energy supply chain will face severe shocks, and oil prices could rise further. Furthermore, a rebound in energy prices could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, creating a ripple effect on global financial markets.
Question 5: Will the multinational maritime escort operation promoted by France and Britain be successful?
A: On July 3, France and the UK announced that Oman had agreed to cooperate with them to ensure the safety of navigation in their territorial waters, and that the UK and France were "ready to deploy a larger-scale multinational joint military operation." However, this initiative faces strong opposition from Iran—which has repeatedly refused to allow foreign troops to be stationed in the region and has used this issue as a bargaining chip. One European diplomat bluntly stated, "Everyone will have reservations unless Iran gives its approval." Another diplomat indicated that the relevant meetings were "more symbolic." Therefore, without Iran's tacit approval, the actual effectiveness and sustainability of the multinational escort operation are highly questionable.
At 09:17 Beijing time, Brent crude oil was trading at $75.60 per barrel.
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