Silver prices retreated slightly; be wary of a potential retest of previous lows after the rebound ends.
2026-07-08 16:28:48
Spot silver prices continued their correction on Wednesday, falling below $60. The short-term rebound was hampered, and the US dollar index remained high, which was unfavorable for silver to rise. Investors are currently waiting for the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting to determine the future path of interest rate policy.
The US dollar index has recently remained high, supported by safe-haven demand. However, weaker-than-expected US employment data has prompted the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's future policy direction, weakening the dollar's upward momentum. A weaker dollar typically benefits dollar-denominated precious metals because it reduces purchasing costs for non-dollar investors.
Meanwhile, the evolving situation in the Middle East continues to influence sentiment in the precious metals market. Recent US military action against Iran, following attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, has raised concerns about energy transport security. These risk events have fueled safe-haven demand and provided short-term support for silver prices.
However, silver's price movement is influenced by both inflation and interest rate expectations. Energy supply risks could push up crude oil prices and increase global inflationary pressures. If the market believes that rising energy prices will lead to a rebound in inflation, the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, which would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver and limit its potential for price increases.
Market opinions remain divided regarding the Federal Reserve's future policies. According to market data, investors still expect an over 80% probability of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of this year. This expectation suggests that the market has not yet fully shifted to an easing policy environment.
Investors are awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting. It's important to note that the minutes reflect the market environment during the June 16-17 policy meeting, when the US job market was considered relatively stable. However, the subsequent June non-farm payroll data showed that the US added only 57,000 jobs, significantly lower than market expectations.
Therefore, even if the meeting minutes release a hawkish signal, the market may perceive some of its content as outdated and lagging behind the latest economic data. If Federal Reserve officials express concern about increased risks to the labor market in the minutes, it could weaken the dollar and drive silver prices higher.
From an industrial demand perspective, silver possesses attributes of both a precious metal and an industrial metal. Global manufacturing performance and demand from the new energy industry are also important factors influencing its price. If global economic growth expectations improve, industrial demand for silver may strengthen, providing additional support for its price.
The silver market is currently in a phase where multiple factors are intertwined, including the dollar's performance, expectations of Federal Reserve policy, energy market risks, and the global economic growth outlook, all of which will jointly determine the direction of the next phase.
From a daily chart perspective, spot silver has recently undergone a correction at high levels. After a continuous decline, prices found buying support and have now returned to around $60. The overall trend remains one of high-level consolidation, but short-term upward momentum has recovered somewhat. The MACD indicator shows that bearish momentum is gradually weakening, and the market has a need for technical correction. Key resistance to watch is around $61.50; a break above this level could lead to a further test of the $63.00 area. Support is around $59.00; a break below this level could lead to a pullback to the $57.50 area. The market is currently awaiting fundamental news to confirm its direction.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver is showing a short-term oscillating rebound structure, with prices regaining some short-term moving averages and buying sentiment improving. The RSI indicator has rebounded from a low level, indicating strengthening short-term momentum, but it has not yet entered a clearly strong zone. If silver prices break through the $61.50 resistance level, the short-term rebound potential may further expand; if the rise is hindered, the effectiveness of the $59.00 support level needs to be monitored. Currently, the market is still in a rebound and correction phase, and the Fed meeting minutes will be an important short-term catalyst.
Editor's Summary : Silver's current price movement is supported by a dollar correction and safe-haven demand, but Federal Reserve interest rate expectations remain a significant factor limiting further gains. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have increased the safe-haven value of precious metals, but rising energy prices may reinforce inflation concerns and prompt the market to maintain higher interest rate expectations. The future direction of silver will depend on Fed policy signals and the dollar's performance. If the Fed minutes are dovish, the dollar may come under pressure, and silver is expected to continue its rebound; if the market re-emphasizes expectations of interest rate hikes, the upside potential for silver prices may be limited. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the $61.50 resistance level and the $59.00 support level can be broken.
The US dollar index has recently remained high, supported by safe-haven demand. However, weaker-than-expected US employment data has prompted the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's future policy direction, weakening the dollar's upward momentum. A weaker dollar typically benefits dollar-denominated precious metals because it reduces purchasing costs for non-dollar investors.
Meanwhile, the evolving situation in the Middle East continues to influence sentiment in the precious metals market. Recent US military action against Iran, following attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, has raised concerns about energy transport security. These risk events have fueled safe-haven demand and provided short-term support for silver prices.
However, silver's price movement is influenced by both inflation and interest rate expectations. Energy supply risks could push up crude oil prices and increase global inflationary pressures. If the market believes that rising energy prices will lead to a rebound in inflation, the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, which would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as silver and limit its potential for price increases.
Market opinions remain divided regarding the Federal Reserve's future policies. According to market data, investors still expect an over 80% probability of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of this year. This expectation suggests that the market has not yet fully shifted to an easing policy environment.
Investors are awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting. It's important to note that the minutes reflect the market environment during the June 16-17 policy meeting, when the US job market was considered relatively stable. However, the subsequent June non-farm payroll data showed that the US added only 57,000 jobs, significantly lower than market expectations.
Therefore, even if the meeting minutes release a hawkish signal, the market may perceive some of its content as outdated and lagging behind the latest economic data. If Federal Reserve officials express concern about increased risks to the labor market in the minutes, it could weaken the dollar and drive silver prices higher.
From an industrial demand perspective, silver possesses attributes of both a precious metal and an industrial metal. Global manufacturing performance and demand from the new energy industry are also important factors influencing its price. If global economic growth expectations improve, industrial demand for silver may strengthen, providing additional support for its price.
The silver market is currently in a phase where multiple factors are intertwined, including the dollar's performance, expectations of Federal Reserve policy, energy market risks, and the global economic growth outlook, all of which will jointly determine the direction of the next phase.
From a daily chart perspective, spot silver has recently undergone a correction at high levels. After a continuous decline, prices found buying support and have now returned to around $60. The overall trend remains one of high-level consolidation, but short-term upward momentum has recovered somewhat. The MACD indicator shows that bearish momentum is gradually weakening, and the market has a need for technical correction. Key resistance to watch is around $61.50; a break above this level could lead to a further test of the $63.00 area. Support is around $59.00; a break below this level could lead to a pullback to the $57.50 area. The market is currently awaiting fundamental news to confirm its direction.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver is showing a short-term oscillating rebound structure, with prices regaining some short-term moving averages and buying sentiment improving. The RSI indicator has rebounded from a low level, indicating strengthening short-term momentum, but it has not yet entered a clearly strong zone. If silver prices break through the $61.50 resistance level, the short-term rebound potential may further expand; if the rise is hindered, the effectiveness of the $59.00 support level needs to be monitored. Currently, the market is still in a rebound and correction phase, and the Fed meeting minutes will be an important short-term catalyst.
Editor's Summary : Silver's current price movement is supported by a dollar correction and safe-haven demand, but Federal Reserve interest rate expectations remain a significant factor limiting further gains. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have increased the safe-haven value of precious metals, but rising energy prices may reinforce inflation concerns and prompt the market to maintain higher interest rate expectations. The future direction of silver will depend on Fed policy signals and the dollar's performance. If the Fed minutes are dovish, the dollar may come under pressure, and silver is expected to continue its rebound; if the market re-emphasizes expectations of interest rate hikes, the upside potential for silver prices may be limited. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the $61.50 resistance level and the $59.00 support level can be broken.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
