Following the US military's continued airstrikes against Iran, Trump issued a stern warning, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz again, and oil prices rose to a more than two-week high.
2026-07-09 09:35:08
The flames of war have once again engulfed the Persian Gulf. The ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, which lasted less than a month, collapsed abruptly amidst mutual accusations and repeated military strikes. US cruise missiles were aimed directly at Iranian railway bridges, and Trump threatened to strike civilian infrastructure; the Iranian Revolutionary Guard responded with missiles and vowed to blockade global oil chokepoints. Will this "limited conflict" slide into a full-blown war? The traffic lights in the Strait of Hormuz are flashing wildly with each explosion. Affected by this news, international oil prices have surged in the past two trading days, hitting a more than two-week high. On Wednesday (July 8), US crude oil reached a high of $76.08 per barrel, and Brent crude oil reached a high of $80.56 per barrel.
From July 8th to 9th, Beijing time, the situation in the Middle East deteriorated sharply again. The US Central Command launched large-scale airstrikes against targets in Iran for two consecutive days, effectively ending the permanent ceasefire agreement reached on June 17th. During the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, US President Donald Trump stated explicitly that he believed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was "over" and that he no longer wanted to deal with Iran. This statement was seen as the clearest signal that the ceasefire agreement was on the verge of complete collapse.
The immediate trigger for this military escalation was Iran's attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the US military, Iran had previously launched drones and missiles at three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command issued a statement on social media stating that the US strikes were a response to Iran's "targeting and attacks on commercial shipping operated by civilian crews in international waterways," and accused Iran of aggression that was "unjustified, dangerous, and a "clear violation of the ceasefire agreement." The US emphasized that this action was intended to "make attacks on merchant ships operated by innocent civilians in international waterways pay a heavy price."
According to information released by the U.S. Central Command, in its first round of air strikes on July 8, the U.S. military focused its attacks on Iran's air defense systems, coastal radar systems, and more than sixty small vessels used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. These small vessels were considered to pose a direct threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade passed before the war.
Early Thursday morning, July 9th, Beijing time, the US military launched airstrikes against Iran for the second consecutive day. The US Central Command stated that forces have begun further operations against Iran, aimed at further weakening Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Axios, citing a US official, the US military even used cruise missiles to strike two railway bridges in northern Iran during the July 8th airstrikes—the first US attack on Iranian infrastructure since the ceasefire was reached on April 8th.
Iranian state media reported that multiple explosions occurred, including at the port of Mahshahr. Eight soldiers from the Army Aviation and Navy were killed in Bandar Abbas and Bushehr; Bushehr is also home to Iran's nuclear power plant. Additionally, Shahr Airport was attacked, resulting in the death of a firefighter and damage to the air traffic control building and weather station. Other reports indicated that a military base in southern Bushehr province was hit by two US missiles.
Trump took a hard line when discussing the military action. He posted on social media, "This is retaliation for Iran's bombing of ships yesterday. If it happens again, the consequences will be unimaginable!" He further threatened to destroy Iran's "highest priority" targets, including bridges, power plants, and desalination plants, if necessary. Trump also stated that the US military "may" strike Iran again "tonight," and may reimpose a naval blockade on Iran.
In response to the series of airstrikes by the US military, Iran quickly issued a strong statement. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on July 8th, local time, condemning the US airstrikes launched early that morning against coastal areas of Hormozgan province and some coastal bases and demilitarized facilities in Mahshahr, deeming it a blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement and the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.
In an "initial response" to U.S. "aggression," the Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for 85 attacks on U.S. military bases. The Revolutionary Guard's naval and air forces, through joint missile and drone operations, destroyed 85 key U.S. military facilities, including the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and the Ali Salim Air Base in Kuwait, and shot down an enemy MQ-9 drone attempting to interfere with operations. Kuwait confirmed that it intercepted two ballistic missiles and 13 drones launched by Iran, and that multiple power lines were disrupted after being hit by shrapnel.
More seriously, Iran has issued a clear threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian state television, Iran vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting all maritime traffic, and launch a retaliatory strike with double the force in the event of any new attack. Iranian security sources further stated that if the United States launches any attack on Iran, Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate against enemy targets with at least twice the scale of the attack. The sources also emphasized that Iran is prepared to fight for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi responded to Trump's remarks on social media, stating that Trump's statement "is not a symbol of strength, but an admission of the failure of US policy toward Iran." Iranian Parliament Speaker Gharibaf also stated in a strong tone: "The era of harassment and blackmail is over. We will never yield."
Despite the escalating military conflict, Trump's rhetoric has been somewhat contradictory. On his return to Washington from the NATO summit, Trump told accompanying media, "Iran just called. They're very eager to make a deal," but he immediately added, "I just don't know if they even deserve a deal." This statement suggests that while military action continues, communication channels between the US and Iran may not have been completely severed.
However, Trump also made it clear that he was skeptical of the outcome of the negotiations, saying, "They can talk, but I think they're wasting their time." This contradictory stance of "fighting while negotiating" precisely reflects the long-standing complex nature of US-Iran relations—neither side can afford the cost of a complete breakdown in political contact, nor are either willing to compromise on core positions.
The renewed escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has swiftly triggered a strong reaction in international markets. Following Trump's remarks, international oil prices rose significantly. Analysts point out that a renewed conflict could engulf the entire Middle East and potentially disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway crucial to the global economy.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transport routes, with approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas trade passing through it before World War II. About 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through Kharg Island, which Trump has previously threatened to occupy. If the strait were blocked or severely restricted, the global energy supply chain would suffer a major blow.
Wall Street senior strategist Yardeni warned that a breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire could trigger a new round of accelerated inflation, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency also advised airlines on July 8 to avoid airspace over Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, warning that "Iranian airspace could face an imminent threat if the existing ceasefire agreement breaks down."
Behind this escalation of conflict lies the complex political landscape within Iran. Analysts point out that the recent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz may reflect divisions within the Iranian leadership—hardliners seek permanent control of this strategic waterway as a crucial lever against the West, while pragmatists hope to reach a permanent peace agreement to lift international sanctions and obtain economic aid.
It is worth noting that negotiations to reach a final agreement were originally scheduled to begin after the funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed on February 28 in the first joint airstrike launched by Israel and the United States. The funeral concluded on Thursday, and tensions were expected to ease during this period. However, the series of US airstrikes clearly shattered this expectation.
The trajectory of the current US-Iran conflict remains highly uncertain. Analysts believe that the military clashes between the two countries are underpinned by an ongoing power struggle over the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are attempting to establish deterrence through limited conflict while simultaneously striving to avoid a significant escalation into a full-blown war. A full-blown war is not in the interest of either side—the US does not want to become bogged down in the Middle East again, and Iran's conventional military capabilities are insufficient to directly confront the US military.
However, as both sides escalate military operations and accuse each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, the risk of the situation spiraling out of control continues to rise. Trump has threatened to attack Iran's civilian infrastructure, while Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate in kind—this spiral of mutual threats is pushing the entire Middle East into an increasingly dangerous situation. The international community is closely watching the next move in this conflict.
Question 1: Didn't the US and Iran just reach a ceasefire agreement? Why did they start fighting so quickly?
On June 17th of this year, the US and Iran did indeed sign a temporary ceasefire agreement known as the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding," agreeing to "immediately and permanently cease military operations on all fronts." However, the foundation of this agreement was extremely fragile. The two sides lacked mutual trust on core issues such as the nuclear issue and control of the Strait of Hormuz, and their positions differed significantly. The immediate trigger for this conflict was Iran's attack on three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which the US considered a "clear violation of the ceasefire agreement," and subsequently launched retaliatory airstrikes. Trump publicly announced at the NATO summit that the ceasefire agreement "had ended," marking the formal collapse of this agreement, which had been in effect for less than a month.
Question 2: Why did the United States attack Iran's railway bridges and civilian infrastructure?
On July 8, the U.S. military used cruise missiles for the first time to strike two railway bridges in northern Iran in an airstrike. This marked the first U.S. attack on Iranian infrastructure since the ceasefire was reached in April. Trump had previously publicly threatened to destroy "top priority" targets in Iran, including bridges, power plants, and desalination plants, if necessary. Analysts believe this move is intended to increase pressure on Iran, not only by striking military targets but also by weakening Iran's economic capacity and war potential, forcing Tehran to make concessions on the Strait of Hormuz. This targeting of civilian infrastructure has also raised international concerns about escalation and humanitarian impacts.
Question 3: Does Iran really have the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz? What would be the consequences if it did?
The Strait of Hormuz is the only waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade passes. Iran does possess the military capability to close or severely disrupt passage through this strait—by deploying mines, anti-ship missiles, drones, and a large number of small speedboats, Iran can pose a substantial threat to passing vessels. Iranian security sources have clearly stated that if the United States launches any attack, Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait is blocked, the global energy supply chain will suffer a severe blow, international oil prices could surge, thereby pushing up global inflation and potentially forcing central banks in major economies to adjust their monetary policies.
Question 4: Is it true that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have "destroyed" 85 US military facilities?
On July 8, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement claiming that it had "destroyed" the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and 85 key US military facilities at the Ali Salim Air Base in Kuwait through a joint missile and drone operation. Kuwait confirmed intercepting two ballistic missiles and thirteen drones launched by Iran, indicating at least that Iran did launch a large-scale attack. However, the claim of "destroying 85 facilities" currently comes primarily from a unilateral Iranian statement; the US military has not yet released a detailed damage assessment report. Considering military propaganda, this number may be somewhat exaggerated, but there is no doubt that the scale of Iran's retaliation was considerable.
Question 5: Will the US-Iran conflict escalate into a full-scale war?
A full-scale war is not in the interest of either side. The United States is unwilling to become bogged down in another Middle East conflict, and Iran's conventional military capabilities are insufficient to confront the US military head-on. Currently, both sides are attempting to establish deterrence through limited conflict while avoiding significant escalation. However, as both sides continue to escalate military actions and accuse each other, the risk of the situation spiraling out of control is steadily increasing. Trump's threats to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure and Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate in kind—this spiral of mutual threats is worrying. The international community is closely monitoring developments, and any miscalculation or overreaction by either side could push this conflict into a more dangerous situation.
Question 6: What impact will this have on international oil prices?
International oil prices surged on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a cumulative increase of over 8%, hitting a more than two-week high. This directly reflects the market's strong panic over the potential supply disruption risk from the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed in less than a month, with US airstrikes targeting Iranian territory and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatening a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway carrying about one-fifth of global oil trade. Any expectation of a blockade quickly pushes up risk premiums. Trump's threats to strike Iranian oil export hubs such as Kharg Island have further fueled market concerns that actual supply disruptions could turn from a "risk" into a "reality." In the short term, as long as the military conflict continues or escalates further, oil prices are more likely to rise than fall; however, if the conflict is contained to a limited extent and does not substantially block tanker passage, the geopolitical premium could quickly recede. Subsequent price movements will heavily depend on the next steps taken by the US and Iran and the effectiveness of international diplomatic intervention.
At 09:32 Beijing time, US crude oil is currently trading at $74.33 per barrel.
I. The ceasefire agreement collapsed in less than a month, and the US and Iran returned to military confrontation.
From July 8th to 9th, Beijing time, the situation in the Middle East deteriorated sharply again. The US Central Command launched large-scale airstrikes against targets in Iran for two consecutive days, effectively ending the permanent ceasefire agreement reached on June 17th. During the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, US President Donald Trump stated explicitly that he believed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was "over" and that he no longer wanted to deal with Iran. This statement was seen as the clearest signal that the ceasefire agreement was on the verge of complete collapse.
The immediate trigger for this military escalation was Iran's attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the US military, Iran had previously launched drones and missiles at three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command issued a statement on social media stating that the US strikes were a response to Iran's "targeting and attacks on commercial shipping operated by civilian crews in international waterways," and accused Iran of aggression that was "unjustified, dangerous, and a "clear violation of the ceasefire agreement." The US emphasized that this action was intended to "make attacks on merchant ships operated by innocent civilians in international waterways pay a heavy price."
II. US Air Strike Targets and Scale: From Military Facilities to Infrastructure
According to information released by the U.S. Central Command, in its first round of air strikes on July 8, the U.S. military focused its attacks on Iran's air defense systems, coastal radar systems, and more than sixty small vessels used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. These small vessels were considered to pose a direct threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade passed before the war.
Early Thursday morning, July 9th, Beijing time, the US military launched airstrikes against Iran for the second consecutive day. The US Central Command stated that forces have begun further operations against Iran, aimed at further weakening Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Axios, citing a US official, the US military even used cruise missiles to strike two railway bridges in northern Iran during the July 8th airstrikes—the first US attack on Iranian infrastructure since the ceasefire was reached on April 8th.
Iranian state media reported that multiple explosions occurred, including at the port of Mahshahr. Eight soldiers from the Army Aviation and Navy were killed in Bandar Abbas and Bushehr; Bushehr is also home to Iran's nuclear power plant. Additionally, Shahr Airport was attacked, resulting in the death of a firefighter and damage to the air traffic control building and weather station. Other reports indicated that a military base in southern Bushehr province was hit by two US missiles.
Trump took a hard line when discussing the military action. He posted on social media, "This is retaliation for Iran's bombing of ships yesterday. If it happens again, the consequences will be unimaginable!" He further threatened to destroy Iran's "highest priority" targets, including bridges, power plants, and desalination plants, if necessary. Trump also stated that the US military "may" strike Iran again "tonight," and may reimpose a naval blockade on Iran.
III. Iran's Strong Retaliation: 85 US Military Facilities Attacked, Strait of Hormuz May Be Closed Again
In response to the series of airstrikes by the US military, Iran quickly issued a strong statement. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on July 8th, local time, condemning the US airstrikes launched early that morning against coastal areas of Hormozgan province and some coastal bases and demilitarized facilities in Mahshahr, deeming it a blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement and the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.
In an "initial response" to U.S. "aggression," the Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for 85 attacks on U.S. military bases. The Revolutionary Guard's naval and air forces, through joint missile and drone operations, destroyed 85 key U.S. military facilities, including the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and the Ali Salim Air Base in Kuwait, and shot down an enemy MQ-9 drone attempting to interfere with operations. Kuwait confirmed that it intercepted two ballistic missiles and 13 drones launched by Iran, and that multiple power lines were disrupted after being hit by shrapnel.
More seriously, Iran has issued a clear threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian state television, Iran vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting all maritime traffic, and launch a retaliatory strike with double the force in the event of any new attack. Iranian security sources further stated that if the United States launches any attack on Iran, Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate against enemy targets with at least twice the scale of the attack. The sources also emphasized that Iran is prepared to fight for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi responded to Trump's remarks on social media, stating that Trump's statement "is not a symbol of strength, but an admission of the failure of US policy toward Iran." Iranian Parliament Speaker Gharibaf also stated in a strong tone: "The era of harassment and blackmail is over. We will never yield."
IV. Is the door to negotiations not completely closed? Trump's statements are contradictory.
Despite the escalating military conflict, Trump's rhetoric has been somewhat contradictory. On his return to Washington from the NATO summit, Trump told accompanying media, "Iran just called. They're very eager to make a deal," but he immediately added, "I just don't know if they even deserve a deal." This statement suggests that while military action continues, communication channels between the US and Iran may not have been completely severed.
However, Trump also made it clear that he was skeptical of the outcome of the negotiations, saying, "They can talk, but I think they're wasting their time." This contradictory stance of "fighting while negotiating" precisely reflects the long-standing complex nature of US-Iran relations—neither side can afford the cost of a complete breakdown in political contact, nor are either willing to compromise on core positions.
V. Risks Facing the Global Economy: Soaring Oil Prices and Supply Chain Concerns
The renewed escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has swiftly triggered a strong reaction in international markets. Following Trump's remarks, international oil prices rose significantly. Analysts point out that a renewed conflict could engulf the entire Middle East and potentially disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway crucial to the global economy.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transport routes, with approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas trade passing through it before World War II. About 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through Kharg Island, which Trump has previously threatened to occupy. If the strait were blocked or severely restricted, the global energy supply chain would suffer a major blow.
Wall Street senior strategist Yardeni warned that a breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire could trigger a new round of accelerated inflation, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency also advised airlines on July 8 to avoid airspace over Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, warning that "Iranian airspace could face an imminent threat if the existing ceasefire agreement breaks down."
VI. Complex Internal and External Factors: Disagreements within the Iranian Leadership and Khamenei's Funeral
Behind this escalation of conflict lies the complex political landscape within Iran. Analysts point out that the recent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz may reflect divisions within the Iranian leadership—hardliners seek permanent control of this strategic waterway as a crucial lever against the West, while pragmatists hope to reach a permanent peace agreement to lift international sanctions and obtain economic aid.
It is worth noting that negotiations to reach a final agreement were originally scheduled to begin after the funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed on February 28 in the first joint airstrike launched by Israel and the United States. The funeral concluded on Thursday, and tensions were expected to ease during this period. However, the series of US airstrikes clearly shattered this expectation.
VII. Conclusion: Limited Conflict or Total War?
The trajectory of the current US-Iran conflict remains highly uncertain. Analysts believe that the military clashes between the two countries are underpinned by an ongoing power struggle over the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are attempting to establish deterrence through limited conflict while simultaneously striving to avoid a significant escalation into a full-blown war. A full-blown war is not in the interest of either side—the US does not want to become bogged down in the Middle East again, and Iran's conventional military capabilities are insufficient to directly confront the US military.
However, as both sides escalate military operations and accuse each other of violating the ceasefire agreement, the risk of the situation spiraling out of control continues to rise. Trump has threatened to attack Iran's civilian infrastructure, while Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate in kind—this spiral of mutual threats is pushing the entire Middle East into an increasingly dangerous situation. The international community is closely watching the next move in this conflict.
Frequently Asked Questions
Question 1: Didn't the US and Iran just reach a ceasefire agreement? Why did they start fighting so quickly?
On June 17th of this year, the US and Iran did indeed sign a temporary ceasefire agreement known as the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding," agreeing to "immediately and permanently cease military operations on all fronts." However, the foundation of this agreement was extremely fragile. The two sides lacked mutual trust on core issues such as the nuclear issue and control of the Strait of Hormuz, and their positions differed significantly. The immediate trigger for this conflict was Iran's attack on three merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which the US considered a "clear violation of the ceasefire agreement," and subsequently launched retaliatory airstrikes. Trump publicly announced at the NATO summit that the ceasefire agreement "had ended," marking the formal collapse of this agreement, which had been in effect for less than a month.
Question 2: Why did the United States attack Iran's railway bridges and civilian infrastructure?
On July 8, the U.S. military used cruise missiles for the first time to strike two railway bridges in northern Iran in an airstrike. This marked the first U.S. attack on Iranian infrastructure since the ceasefire was reached in April. Trump had previously publicly threatened to destroy "top priority" targets in Iran, including bridges, power plants, and desalination plants, if necessary. Analysts believe this move is intended to increase pressure on Iran, not only by striking military targets but also by weakening Iran's economic capacity and war potential, forcing Tehran to make concessions on the Strait of Hormuz. This targeting of civilian infrastructure has also raised international concerns about escalation and humanitarian impacts.
Question 3: Does Iran really have the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz? What would be the consequences if it did?
The Strait of Hormuz is the only waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade passes. Iran does possess the military capability to close or severely disrupt passage through this strait—by deploying mines, anti-ship missiles, drones, and a large number of small speedboats, Iran can pose a substantial threat to passing vessels. Iranian security sources have clearly stated that if the United States launches any attack, Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait is blocked, the global energy supply chain will suffer a severe blow, international oil prices could surge, thereby pushing up global inflation and potentially forcing central banks in major economies to adjust their monetary policies.
Question 4: Is it true that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have "destroyed" 85 US military facilities?
On July 8, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement claiming that it had "destroyed" the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and 85 key US military facilities at the Ali Salim Air Base in Kuwait through a joint missile and drone operation. Kuwait confirmed intercepting two ballistic missiles and thirteen drones launched by Iran, indicating at least that Iran did launch a large-scale attack. However, the claim of "destroying 85 facilities" currently comes primarily from a unilateral Iranian statement; the US military has not yet released a detailed damage assessment report. Considering military propaganda, this number may be somewhat exaggerated, but there is no doubt that the scale of Iran's retaliation was considerable.
Question 5: Will the US-Iran conflict escalate into a full-scale war?
A full-scale war is not in the interest of either side. The United States is unwilling to become bogged down in another Middle East conflict, and Iran's conventional military capabilities are insufficient to confront the US military head-on. Currently, both sides are attempting to establish deterrence through limited conflict while avoiding significant escalation. However, as both sides continue to escalate military actions and accuse each other, the risk of the situation spiraling out of control is steadily increasing. Trump's threats to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure and Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliate in kind—this spiral of mutual threats is worrying. The international community is closely monitoring developments, and any miscalculation or overreaction by either side could push this conflict into a more dangerous situation.
Question 6: What impact will this have on international oil prices?
International oil prices surged on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a cumulative increase of over 8%, hitting a more than two-week high. This directly reflects the market's strong panic over the potential supply disruption risk from the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed in less than a month, with US airstrikes targeting Iranian territory and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatening a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway carrying about one-fifth of global oil trade. Any expectation of a blockade quickly pushes up risk premiums. Trump's threats to strike Iranian oil export hubs such as Kharg Island have further fueled market concerns that actual supply disruptions could turn from a "risk" into a "reality." In the short term, as long as the military conflict continues or escalates further, oil prices are more likely to rise than fall; however, if the conflict is contained to a limited extent and does not substantially block tanker passage, the geopolitical premium could quickly recede. Subsequent price movements will heavily depend on the next steps taken by the US and Iran and the effectiveness of international diplomatic intervention.
At 09:32 Beijing time, US crude oil is currently trading at $74.33 per barrel.
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