Crude oil trading alert: The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran are pushing up safe-haven demand, causing US crude oil to remain range-bound.
2026-07-10 09:36:29
The international crude oil market was relatively stable on Friday, with WTI crude oil futures prices essentially flat during Asian trading hours, hovering around $72, ending the previous day's decline. Investors are reassessing the impact of the Middle East situation, global crude oil supply expectations, and changes in US inventories on future price direction.
This week, the crude oil market has regained support from geopolitical risks. Previous US military action against Iranian targets raised concerns about the stability of Middle Eastern supply chains, particularly regarding the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This region serves as a vital global oil transportation corridor, and any disruption to these routes could quickly escalate market risk premiums.
WTI crude oil prices rebounded significantly earlier this week due to escalating tensions, with market concerns that supply disruptions could widen the short-term supply-demand gap. However, as the situation evolved, market risk aversion cooled somewhat. US President Trump stated that Iran was seeking an agreement with the US to avoid further escalation of regional tensions, while White House officials also indicated that the US remained committed to advancing the previously reached understanding framework.
The aforementioned news eased investor concerns about disruptions to crude oil supply, putting downward pressure on previously rapidly rising oil prices. The market believes that if negotiations continue, the geopolitical risk premium in the crude oil market may gradually decline, and prices will return to being driven primarily by fundamental factors.
Meanwhile, supply-side pressures continue to limit further upside potential for oil prices. OPEC+'s recent decision to further increase its production targets means that global crude oil supply may increase further in the coming months. Against the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding demand growth, this increased supply could undermine market confidence in a sustained rise in oil prices.
Regarding inventory data, the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by approximately 2.998 million barrels in the week ending July 3, ending an 11-week consecutive decline and significantly exceeding market expectations. The unexpected increase of nearly 3 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories indicates that supply-side pressures are re-emerging , a key factor suppressing oil price increases.
However, looking at the weekly performance, WTI crude oil is still expected to record a slight increase, ending its previous four-week losing streak. The market is currently in a phase of mixed bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, the situation in the Middle East could still push risk premiums back up at any time; on the other hand, OPEC+ production increase plans, changes in US inventories, and weak global demand prospects all limit the potential for further price increases.
Investors are currently focusing on three key areas: first, whether relations between the US and Iran continue to ease; second, the pace of OPEC+ supply adjustments; and third, whether subsequent US inventory data will resume its downward trend. If inventories continue to accumulate, the upward momentum for oil prices may weaken further.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil has rebounded after a period of consolidation, currently trading above $71, with a short-term trend showing a slightly bullish bias. The moving average system indicates that oil prices are attempting to regain footing above short-term moving averages, but medium-term pressure remains. On the daily chart, the key resistance level to watch is the $72.50-$73.50 area; a break above this area could lead to a further test of the $75 level. Support is seen at the $70 psychological level; a break below this level could result in a retest of the $68-$69 area. Regarding the MACD indicator, bearish momentum has weakened, but a bullish signal still requires confirmation by a break above key resistance levels.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, WTI crude oil is currently in a consolidation phase after a short-term rebound, with prices fluctuating around the $71-$72 range. Short-term moving averages are gradually flattening, indicating the market is entering a phase of directional choice. If oil prices can stably break through $72.50, further upward movement may be possible in the short term; however, if prices fall below $70 due to supply pressures, a technical correction could be triggered. The current RSI indicator is in neutral territory, suggesting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces, with the market awaiting new fundamental catalysts.
Editor's Summary
WTI crude oil is currently caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and supply pressures. Changes in the Middle East situation remain a significant short-term price driver; a renewed escalation of tensions could provide rapid support for oil prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, OPEC+'s increased supply targets and rising US inventories are limiting upside potential. The future direction of the crude oil market will depend on the sustainability of risk premiums and changes in the global supply-demand balance. If supply-side pressures continue to intensify, oil prices may remain range-bound; if geopolitical risks reignite supply concerns, WTI crude oil could still test key resistance levels. Investors should closely monitor inventory data, production policies, and changes in the global energy market to identify trading opportunities in this volatile environment.
This week, the crude oil market has regained support from geopolitical risks. Previous US military action against Iranian targets raised concerns about the stability of Middle Eastern supply chains, particularly regarding the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This region serves as a vital global oil transportation corridor, and any disruption to these routes could quickly escalate market risk premiums.
WTI crude oil prices rebounded significantly earlier this week due to escalating tensions, with market concerns that supply disruptions could widen the short-term supply-demand gap. However, as the situation evolved, market risk aversion cooled somewhat. US President Trump stated that Iran was seeking an agreement with the US to avoid further escalation of regional tensions, while White House officials also indicated that the US remained committed to advancing the previously reached understanding framework.
The aforementioned news eased investor concerns about disruptions to crude oil supply, putting downward pressure on previously rapidly rising oil prices. The market believes that if negotiations continue, the geopolitical risk premium in the crude oil market may gradually decline, and prices will return to being driven primarily by fundamental factors.
Meanwhile, supply-side pressures continue to limit further upside potential for oil prices. OPEC+'s recent decision to further increase its production targets means that global crude oil supply may increase further in the coming months. Against the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding demand growth, this increased supply could undermine market confidence in a sustained rise in oil prices.
Regarding inventory data, the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by approximately 2.998 million barrels in the week ending July 3, ending an 11-week consecutive decline and significantly exceeding market expectations. The unexpected increase of nearly 3 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories indicates that supply-side pressures are re-emerging , a key factor suppressing oil price increases.
However, looking at the weekly performance, WTI crude oil is still expected to record a slight increase, ending its previous four-week losing streak. The market is currently in a phase of mixed bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, the situation in the Middle East could still push risk premiums back up at any time; on the other hand, OPEC+ production increase plans, changes in US inventories, and weak global demand prospects all limit the potential for further price increases.
Investors are currently focusing on three key areas: first, whether relations between the US and Iran continue to ease; second, the pace of OPEC+ supply adjustments; and third, whether subsequent US inventory data will resume its downward trend. If inventories continue to accumulate, the upward momentum for oil prices may weaken further.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil has rebounded after a period of consolidation, currently trading above $71, with a short-term trend showing a slightly bullish bias. The moving average system indicates that oil prices are attempting to regain footing above short-term moving averages, but medium-term pressure remains. On the daily chart, the key resistance level to watch is the $72.50-$73.50 area; a break above this area could lead to a further test of the $75 level. Support is seen at the $70 psychological level; a break below this level could result in a retest of the $68-$69 area. Regarding the MACD indicator, bearish momentum has weakened, but a bullish signal still requires confirmation by a break above key resistance levels.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, WTI crude oil is currently in a consolidation phase after a short-term rebound, with prices fluctuating around the $71-$72 range. Short-term moving averages are gradually flattening, indicating the market is entering a phase of directional choice. If oil prices can stably break through $72.50, further upward movement may be possible in the short term; however, if prices fall below $70 due to supply pressures, a technical correction could be triggered. The current RSI indicator is in neutral territory, suggesting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces, with the market awaiting new fundamental catalysts.
Editor's Summary
WTI crude oil is currently caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and supply pressures. Changes in the Middle East situation remain a significant short-term price driver; a renewed escalation of tensions could provide rapid support for oil prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, OPEC+'s increased supply targets and rising US inventories are limiting upside potential. The future direction of the crude oil market will depend on the sustainability of risk premiums and changes in the global supply-demand balance. If supply-side pressures continue to intensify, oil prices may remain range-bound; if geopolitical risks reignite supply concerns, WTI crude oil could still test key resistance levels. Investors should closely monitor inventory data, production policies, and changes in the global energy market to identify trading opportunities in this volatile environment.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
